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Syria in Five Minutes

2013-09-13 · Hank · watch on YouTube · World affairs · news analysis

Hank explains the background of the Syrian civil war and the 2013 chemical-weapons crisis, argues that anyone claiming to know the right course is disingenuous or uninformed, and asks viewers to help displaced Syrians through the UN Refugee Agency.

What is said

00:00:00 — Only bad news about Syria, but no solving problems you don't understand: Syria in five or six minutes

  • ★★ Hank's description: however the chemical-weapons negotiations go, the people of Syria face years of bloody conflict. — 00:00:00
  • ★★ Hank says Syria is only bad news, but there is no solving problems you don't understand, so he will explain Syria in five or six minutes. — 00:00:02

00:00:13 — Foundation: Western powers draw Syria as a nation-state around Christians, Druze, Sunni Muslims and Alawites

  • ★★ Hank says Western powers, introducing nation-states to the world, drew Syria's borders around peoples with varying historical and social ties: Christians, Druze, Sunni Muslims and Alawites. — 00:00:15

00:00:39 — Cold War: Russia backs the Alawite-run Ba'ath Party and the elder Assad; Russia's warm-water ports

  • ★★★ Hank says that in the Cold War Russia took Syria as an ally and, through diplomacy and guns, helped the ostensibly socialist, Alawite-run Ba'ath Party, led by the current Assad's father, take control. — 00:00:48
  • ★ Hank quips that although the Cold War is over, apparently no one has told the United States defense budgets. (playful) — 00:01:05 · United States
  • ★★ Hank says Russia remains closely allied with Syria and relies on it for warm-water ports, which Russia lacks. — 00:01:08

00:01:16 — Alawite minority rule and segregation since 1970; sectarian tension breaks open in the Arab Spring; protests crushed

  • ★★★ Hank says that since the Ba'ath Party took over in 1970 Syria has become segregated: scholarships go to Alawi children, contracts to Alawi businesses, and some traffic lanes are for Alawites only. — 00:01:16
  • ★★★ Hank says most Syrians are Sunni Muslim, the official Sunni view is that Alawites rejected Islam, and with about 40 years of repression this created sectarian tension that broke open in the Arab Spring. — 00:01:30
  • ★★★ Hank defines the conflict as a struggle between a powerful minority and a disenfranchised majority. — 00:01:44
  • ★★★ Hank says the Assad regime answered peaceful pro-democracy protests with jail, then killing; as protests turned violent, it tortured protesters' children and killed their families. — 00:01:48

00:02:04 — The Free Syrian Army and a fragmented rebellion; 'this isn't Star Wars'; no one left to take over

  • ★★★ Hank says a big part of the army defected to form the Free Syrian Army, and there are now many rebel groups wanting different things, some loving al-Qaeda and some democracy. — 00:02:05
  • ★★ Hank says this isn't Star Wars: there is no rebel alliance, it is messy and muddy - and in Star Wars terms Assad has already killed Luke, Han and Leia and blown up Alderaan. (playful) — 00:02:26 · Star Wars
  • ★★★ Hank says Assad's forces have killed so many non-Alawite civilian and military leaders that it is unclear who would take over if he left. — 00:02:41

00:02:49 — Chemical weapons: Obama's red line, sarin, the 1960s church-bombing analogy, Russia's Security Council veto

  • ★★ Hank says the conflict was long outside the international spotlight until chemical weapons; President Obama had said their use by Syria would cross a red line. — 00:02:49 · Barack Obama
  • ★★★ Hank says it looks as if Assad's forces used chemical weapons; sarin was definitely used, and on the regime's enemies. (hedged) — 00:02:59
  • ★★ Hank says claims that someone else used the gas feel like 1960s America, when white people believed African-American radicals bombed an African-American church to make the KKK look bad. — 00:03:07
  • ★★★ Hank says Russia has a UN Security Council veto and has never let the UN act against Assad, its only Middle East ally and host of its warm-water ports. — 00:03:20

00:03:31 — Obama turns to Congress; John Kerry's accidental diplomacy and Russia's offer to remove Assad's chemical weapons

  • ★★ Hank says Obama wants to enforce his red line even without UN support, Americans balk at another war, so the president has let Congress decide whether to attack. (playful) — 00:03:31 · Barack Obama, United States Congress
  • ★★ Hank jokes that Congress is so dysfunctional that if it were on fire it could not pass a 'Pour Water on Congress Act'. (playful) — 00:03:47 · United States Congress
  • ★★★ Hank says Assad and Russia need each other, which is why John Kerry's offhand remark that Assad could avoid attack by handing over his chemical weapons was taken up by Russia - an accidental act of diplomacy. (playful) — 00:03:52
  • ★★ Hank says the deal lets Russia wear a diplomatic-hero hat despite its corruption and dismantling of democracy, though Russia's blocking of UN action is why the crisis exists. — 00:04:14

00:04:30 — Assessment: possible stalling, a hard but excellent outcome; nobody knows what we should do; the future is unknowable

  • ★★ Hank says it is possible Russia is just enabling Assad's stalling. (hedged) — 00:04:30
  • ★★★ Hank says collecting chemical weapons from a country in civil war would be extremely complicated, but enforcing the norm against them without bombing or Congress would be an excellent outcome. — 00:04:33 · United States Congress
  • ★★★ Hank: anyone who says they know what we should do in Syria is either being disingenuous or doesn't know what they are talking about. — 00:04:47
  • ★★★ Hank says attacking Assad and empowering the rebels might save millions of lives or cost millions, a power vacuum might be filled by al-Qaeda-sympathetic Islamists; the future is unknowable. (hedged) — 00:04:54

00:05:08 — What we can do: over two million displaced; donate to the UN Refugee Agency; sign-off

  • ★★★ Hank says the Syrian civil war has displaced over two million people. — 00:05:14
  • ★★★ Hank invites viewers to join him in donating to the UN Refugee Agency to help displaced Syrians rebuild their lives - something individuals can do, if not for the geopolitics. — 00:05:18

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