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John Green is an IDIOT! And so are you.

2011-07-06 · Hank · watch on YouTube · Science & nature · explainer learning

Lower-confidence wave

2011 videos did not pass the QA gate (17 %); their analysis is shown but less reliable.

Hank argues, teasingly using John as the example, that cognitive bias is a big reason people are 'stupid': bias simplifies quick decisions but, unnoticed, leads to bad ones; he tours blind-spot, anchoring, confirmation and other biases and urges everyone to read about bias.

What is said

00:00:00 — Opening insult: John is a stupid idiot, and so are we all (racists, Gucci purses, Jersey Shore); why?

  • ★★ Hank tells John, lovingly, that he is a stupid idiot, because we are all stupid idiots: some of us are racist, pay $600 for a Gucci purse or watch Jersey Shore. (playful) — 00:00:00 · John Green

00:00:21 — What bias is; the bias blind spot as a cognitive bias; bias simplifies decisions but unnoticed leads to bad ones

  • ★★★ One of the reasons we are stupid, not the only one but a big one, is bias. — 00:00:21
  • ★★★ Hank jokingly defines bias as others' tendency to ignore our legitimate views; believing others are more biased than you is itself the blind spot bias, one of hundreds of cognitive biases. — 00:00:26
  • ★★★ Bias exists for a reason: we constantly make quick decisions from huge volumes of information and need bias to simplify them; but if we can't notice or overcome it, we make bad decisions. — 00:01:01

00:01:22 — Anchoring bias: John and the Mountain Goats; the spinning-wheel study on countries in Africa

  • ★★★ Anchoring bias is weighting one piece of information over all the others. — 00:01:33
  • ★★ Hank's example: John would reject an otherwise wonderful girl who hated the Mountain Goats, and thinks he is right to discount people who don't enjoy their music. (playful) — 00:01:41 · John Green, The Mountain Goats
  • ★★ In an anchoring study, people spun a wheel numbered 15 to 65, then guessed how many countries are in Africa; those who spun 15 guessed near 15, those who spun 65 near 65. — 00:02:00
    • number check: 15 — doubtful
    • number check: 65 — doubtful

00:02:24 — Confirmation bias; science as the cultural construction that works to eliminate bias

  • ★★★ Confirmation bias: once we make up our minds we seek out evidence that reinforces the belief, at the expense of tons of evidence to the contrary. — 00:02:24
  • ★★★ That is why science is great: it is one of the only cultural constructions that has ever actively worked, every day, to eliminate bias. — 00:02:49

00:02:58 — More biases: authority, egocentric, wishful thinking, hyperbolic discounting

  • ★★ There are many more: authority bias (anchoring on a source), egocentric bias (remembering our own deeds positively, like the size of a fish) and wishful thinking. — 00:02:58
  • ★★ Hyperbolic discounting is the bias that makes lottery winners take a much smaller lump sum instead of more money over a longer period. — 00:03:15

00:03:28 — Stakes from Nazi Germany to everyday decisions; read about bias; Michael Shermer's The Believing Brain; sign-off

  • ★★ Bias can go 'Nazi Germany wrong', but it also hangs us up in everyday decisions such as buying a car or job interviews on either side. — 00:03:28
  • ★★ Hank encourages everyone to read about bias to escape their bias blind spot, recommending Michael Shermer's new book The Believing Brain; Shermer writes for Scientific American, a favourite magazine. — 00:03:41

Humor (significant)

  • Hank opens his letter to John. — 00:00:00 > «You are a stupid idiot. And I say this lovingly as your brother and with complete certainty»
  • Hank says we ourselves have tiny amounts of bias while other people have a huge amount. — 00:00:36 > «and yes, this is a kind of bias.»
  • Since it is so hard to see past your own blind spot, Hank says he'll need to discuss someone else's biases: John's. — 00:01:22 > «it's really convenient that you have so many, uh, because you're such an idiot!»
  • Illustrating anchoring bias, Hank imagines John meeting a hot, nice, funny, socially active, awesome girl. — 00:01:41 > «if she hated the Mountain Goats, you would not care about any of that other stuff.»

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