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Iran Election Fraud: 5 Reasons to Doubt the Results

2009-06-15 · John · watch on YouTube · World affairs · news analysis

John gives five reasons (Tabriz, the 2005 runoff, record turnout, superhuman counting, a reported early concession call) to think Iran's 2009 presidential election was stolen for Ahmadinejad, while allowing that the full story is unknown.

What is said

00:00:00 — Greeting; announces five reasons to think Iran's election was fraudulent

  • ★★★ John sets out to give five reasons why he thinks Iran's presidential election was fraudulent. (hedged) — 00:00:01

00:00:05 — 'An election of our own': Nerdfighters vote on John's beard

  • ★★ John asks Nerdfighters to vote in comments on whether he should keep or shave his beard; unlike Iran, he says, he will adhere to the results. (playful) — 00:00:05 · Nerdfighteria

00:00:23 — Background: Iran as an Islamic Republic; moderates barred from running

  • ★★ John explains that Iran is an Islamic Republic whose president matters less because its domestic and foreign affairs are decided by a council of religious leaders led by the Ayatollah. — 00:00:23
  • ★★ John says moderates who try to run for president are routinely barred (comically 'like 37,000'), which has often led to low turnout. (playful) (hedged) — 00:00:41
    • number check: like 37,000 — doubtful

00:00:53 — The 2009 election: Ahmadinejad, Mousavi, 85% turnout, 63% announced; John says it was stolen

  • ★ John calls the incumbent president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, 'a bit of a douche-nozzle'. (playful) — 00:00:57
  • ★★ John says two quasi-reformist candidates were allowed to run, including former prime minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi. — 00:01:08
  • ★★ John says a 'stunning' 85% of eligible voters voted. — 00:01:14
  • ★★★ John says a couple of hours after polls closed the interior ministry announced Ahmadinejad was winning with 63% of the vote, which he calls nearly impossible. — 00:01:20
  • ★★★ John maintains that Ahmadinejad, and possibly Supreme Leader Ayatollah (Khamenei), stole the election. (hedged) — 00:01:29 > «I maintain that Ahmadinejad, and possibly supreme leader Ayatollah Khomeini, stole the election.»
  • ★★ John says he is not calling the election invalid because a disliked candidate won, but because many things don't add up. — 00:01:39

00:01:48 — Five reasons: Tabriz, 2005, turnout, superhuman counting, the possible acknowledgement

  • ★★★ Reason one: Tabriz, Mousavi's home city, historically votes for him or his ethnic group's candidate, yet apparently voted 2 to 1 for Ahmadinejad - like John McCain winning Chicago. (hedged) — 00:01:48 · Chicago
  • ★★ Reason two: in the 2005 election, despite low turnout and when he was more popular, Ahmadinejad could not avoid a runoff. — 00:02:07
  • ★★★ Reason three: turnout was ridiculously high by Iranian standards; in the last twenty years high turnout always meant a reformist won, and polls said Ahmadinejad needed very low turnout. — 00:02:25
  • ★★★ Reason four: the interior ministry announced results within about two hours, counting about ten million more ballots thirty times faster than ever before. (hedged) — 00:02:44
  • ★★ John says the Iranian government is starting to expel foreign journalists and shut down websites, making reliable information hard to get. — 00:03:03
  • ★★★ Reason five, 'the possible acknowledgment': people inside Mousavi's campaign report the interior ministry told Mousavi he had won shortly before announcing on TV that he had lost. (hedged) — 00:03:14

00:03:28 — Uncertainty, hope the government honors the people; Quran; young Iranians on Twitter

  • ★★ John says the whole story is not yet known and it is possible the elections were somehow not rigged. — 00:03:28
  • ★★ John hopes Iran's government has the decency to honor the will of its people, citing the Quran: God does not guide those who transgress and lie. — 00:03:32
  • ★★ John links to the Twitter feeds of young Iranians tweeting through the crisis, saying they show 140 characters can say something interesting, e.g. 'If Iran sleeps tonight, it will sleep forever.' — 00:03:41 · Twitter, link in the sidebar

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