Skip to content

Egypt....Explained!

2013-07-05 · Hank · watch on YouTube · World affairs · news analysis

Hank explains the week's upheaval in Egypt through its four power groups (old regime, Muslim Brotherhood, military, young activists), from Mubarak's fall to Morsi's removal, and argues revolutions bring only incremental change.

What is said

00:00:00 — Greeting; Egypt had a revolution this week - Hank offers Americans a quick explanation

  • ★★ Hank says Egypt had a revolution this week and, for Americans asking whether they didn't just have one, offers to explain what's going on as quickly as he can. — 00:00:00
  • ★ Hank's description jokes that educational videos are exempt from time limits (the video runs over seven minutes). (playful) — 00:00:00 · Four-minute rule

00:00:15 — The four main power groups (old regime, Muslim Brotherhood, military, young activists); other factions; Muslim Brotherhood history

  • ★★★ Hank says four main groups hold power in Egypt: the old regime, the Muslim Brotherhood, the military, and young, disenfranchised, largely unemployed activists wanting a liberal Egypt. — 00:00:10
  • ★★ Hank says the old regime began when Gamal Abdel Nasser overthrew King Farouk, whom he calls sort of a puppet king of the British. (hedged) — 00:00:15
  • ★★ Hank describes the Muslim Brotherhood as a political, social and religious institution advocating Islamic-law Arab states, reached through hard work and politics rather than violence. — 00:00:21
  • ★★ Hank notes other factions besides the four: a 10% Christian minority, a radical Islamist side, and secularists who are not disenfranchised youth. — 00:00:44
  • ★★ Hank says the Brotherhood was banned after a rogue member tried to assassinate Nasser in the 50s, thrived underground, and now has wealthy members who fund schools, orphanages and mosques. — 00:00:56
  • ★ Hank says many people like the Brotherhood and many fear or misunderstand it, and the old regime vilified it a lot: 'it's complicated'. (hedged) — 00:01:17

00:01:23 — The Egyptian military's land, factories, farms and ~40% of the economy; its 'sacred bond' with the people

  • ★★★ Hank says Egypt's military owns much of the land, sells or leases it, runs conscript-staffed factories making gym equipment, refrigerators and Windex, and sells chickens and bottled water. — 00:01:30
  • ★★★ Hank says the military needn't grab power because it controls about 40% of the Egyptian economy, claims a sacred bond with the people, and is sometimes outside the law. (hedged) — 00:01:56

00:02:18 — Mubarak's kleptocracy angers all groups; the internet ends censorship; Arab Spring protests; Mubarak steps down

  • ★★ Hank calls Hosni Mubarak, by 2010 really a military dictator, terrible: head of a kleptocracy extracting resources for himself and his cronies, who jailed Brotherhood members. (hedged) — 00:02:18
  • ★★ Hank says Mubarak's Europe-educated son returned with a banking degree wanting to overhaul military control of the economy, so the regime angered the Brotherhood, the youth and the military. — 00:02:33
  • ★★★ Hank says the internet ended Mubarak's 30 years of censorship; Arab Spring youth protested, the Brotherhood followed, the military declined to help, and Mubarak stepped down. — 00:02:52

00:03:13 — 2011-12 transition: parliamentary elections won by Islamists, presidential runoff, Morsi's failing rule and November decree

  • ★★ Hank says after Mubarak's fall Islamists wanted immediate parliamentary elections, liberals wanted a constitution first, and the military, wanting stability, unusually sided with the Islamists. — 00:03:13
  • ★★ Hank says the US also called for quick elections, which Islamists won with a majority of parliament, leaving revolutionaries feeling betrayed by the military and the US. — 00:03:50 · United States
  • ★ Hank says crime rose and police were largely disbanded while youth demanded a quick presidential election. (hedged) — 00:04:21
  • ★★★ Hank says the presidential election's top two, Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi and an old-regime candidate, got 25 and 24 percent, while over 50% went to excluded liberal candidates. — 00:04:30
  • ★★ Hank says more than 50% of the first-round vote was split between progressive or liberal candidates, who missed the runoff. — 00:04:44
  • ★★ Hank says Morsi won barely, then proved really terrible at an admittedly very difficult job, not even trying and divisive, undermining the Brotherhood's biggest opportunity. — 00:04:58
  • ★★ Hank says last November Morsi passed a decree basically saying the constitution didn't apply to things he said: 'another dictator'. (hedged) — 00:05:28

00:05:39 — The 22-million-signature petition, Morsi's three-hour speech, mass protests and the military's removal of Morsi

  • ★★★ Hank says young activists went door to door with a petition to take to the streets on June 30th; as many as 22 million signed, more than voted for Morsi. — 00:05:39
  • ★★ Hank says that instead of concessions Morsi gave a three-hour speech, and protesters took to the streets right after rather than waiting for June 30th. (hedged) — 00:06:08
  • ★★★ Hank says about 10 million people on the streets triggered the military's 'sacred bond', and it removed Morsi by force in a coup supported by a lot of people. (hedged) — 00:06:28
  • ★★ Hank says the head of the military did not install himself but made the head of the constitutional court interim president. — 00:06:45

00:07:03 — Hank's analysis: revolutions are incremental steps; wait and see; sign-off to Sabrina

  • ★★★ Hank's analysis: revolutions tend to be incremental steps forward for a country's people; change is slow because cultures are many people who cannot all change their minds at once. — 00:07:03
  • ★★ Hank says we can only hope the changes bring stability and happiness; despite the news media's prophetic ramblings, nobody will know until we know. — 00:07:20

Threads in this video

BR2_ee89f74ea3