Hank: 25% of people in the US will be fully vaccinated within a month (2021)
prediction · status: unresolved · last event: predicted (2021-03-26) · owner: Hank
In March 2021 Hank predicted that within a month a quarter of people in the US would be fully vaccinated, many of them the most at-risk.
About: United States, vaccine
| date | event | what | video |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-03-26 | predicted | Hank says that sometime in the next month 25% of people in the US will be fully vaccinated, many of them the most at-risk. | Why I'm Worried about 2021 00:00:29 |
What is said about it
8 statements, by date (the events above are the turns of the thread; these are the details).
- 2021-03-26 · Why I'm Worried about 2021 — Hank: Vaccines and behavior changes share two goals: keep the individual from getting (very) sick and, more importantly, slow spread through fewer people shedding the virus, the real goal of public health advice. — 00:00:58
- 2021-03-26 · Why I'm Worried about 2021 — Hank: When every sick person infects fewer than one other person, active exponential spread stops and only little outbreaks remain. — 00:01:27
- 2021-03-26 · Why I'm Worried about 2021 — Hank: COVID isn't going away, maybe ever, but Hank says it will be much less of a problem where lots of people get vaccinated. (hedged) — 00:01:27
- 2021-03-26 · Why I'm Worried about 2021 — Hank hopes we will transition to COVID being less of a big deal, deciding for ourselves what is OK, and asks how far we will decide for others too. (hedged) — 00:01:27
- 2021-03-26 · Why I'm Worried about 2021 — Hank: A society has an acceptable disease burden: in the US something like 30,000 people die of flu each year, some of them infants and children, yet beyond vaccines and hygiene advice life went on as before. (hedged) — 00:01:56
- 2021-03-26 · Why I'm Worried about 2021 — Hank: Whether carrying on as before with flu was right, Hank doesn't know, but we acted as if it was. (unsure) — 00:01:56
- 2021-03-26 · Why I'm Worried about 2021 — Hank: Every person's decisions matter: careful and less careful people average out, and with vaccine efficacy that yields the total disease burden. — 00:01:56
- 2021-03-26 · Why I'm Worried about 2021 — Hank: More careful people, and those able to be, will help the less careful, whether they can't be, don't want to be, or have bought into a different version of reality. — 00:02:26