Promises & predictions

What the brothers said would happen, 2007–2026, and what the channel later says did happen: 290 promises (commitments in their own first-person words) and 439 forecasts about the world. A viewer meets the promise and its payoff in different videos, often months apart; this ledger puts them side by side. 113 of 290 counted promises (39 %) are reported kept, a median 7 days after they were made (when kept in a later video). Most forecasts are never revisited on the channel: 86 of 439 have a reported outcome. Unresolved items are marked "no report on the channel" — never "broken" or "wrong". The status list of these threads is on Threads.

Counted = said sincerely or playfully, asserted or hedged (the register gate); not counted but listed: 0 promise(s) and 10 forecast(s) in a joke, hypothetical or uncertain register.

Dates are upload dates, which set the order. Where the speaker gives a different recording date in the video, it is added as "said on YYYY-MM-DD, implied" (derived from the date said in the video). Intervals ("N days later") and relative deadlines are counted from that said-on date.

• All promises, one by one — by year, with deadline, hedge, updates and outcome
• All predictions, one by one — by year, with horizon, hedge, condition and later statements on the same subject

What the channel reports about their promises, by brother

promiser	promises	kept	kept late	changed	dropped	progress reported, no completion	no report on the channel	due date passed, no report	median days to payoff
John	178	65 (37 %)	5 (3 %)	3 (2 %)	2 (1 %)	24 (13 %)	79 (44 %)	24	7
Hank	108	41 (38 %)		2 (2 %)	1 (1 %)	15 (14 %)	49 (45 %)	7	7
both	4	2 (50 %)				2 (50 %)			410
all	290	108 (37 %)	5 (2 %)	5 (2 %)	3 (1 %)	41 (14 %)	128 (44 %)	31	7

Of the 45 kept promises that carry a readable deadline, 37 were reported kept on or before it and 8 after it (or explicitly late).

By year

year	promises	kept	no report	forecasts	forecasts hedged
2007	29	48 %	41 %	2	100 %
2008	29	41 %	45 %	2	0 %
2009	43	44 %	37 %	5	80 %
2010	10	20 %	60 %	9	44 %
2011	25	44 %	44 %	10	90 %
2012	9	11 %	67 %	4	50 %
2013	6	0 %	67 %	9	56 %
2014	11	45 %	45 %	12	50 %
2015	14	43 %	29 %	9	56 %
2016	13	46 %	46 %	22	64 %
2017	8	50 %	25 %	13	46 %
2018	12	25 %	25 %	10	70 %
2019	11	27 %	45 %	14	43 %
2020	14	64 %	21 %	66	38 %
2021	10	20 %	70 %	96	38 %
2022	6	0 %	67 %	17	59 %
2023	8	38 %	62 %	23	57 %
2024	12	50 %	50 %	32	22 %
2025	10	30 %	40 %	40	32 %
2026	10	40 %	60 %	34	32 %

Promise and payoff, side by side

The 15 kept promises with the longest wait between promise and payoff (of 100 kept in a later video).

• Hank: order the glasses frames that win the viewer vote (2008) — Hank
  • promised 2008-07-27: Hank says he will see which frames win the vote and order them immediately. — How to Buy Glasses Cheap...and Help Hank Pick Frames! 00:02:36
  • → kept 2011-09-28 (3.2 years later): Hank recalls that his current glasses were the ones chosen by a viewer vote some four years ago (2008). — Cup Stacking and Glasses Picking 00:00:00
• John: the brothers will do another Tour de Nerdfighting (2009) — John
  • promised 2009-08-11: John promises the brothers will do another Tour de Nerdfighting, though it may be a while. — The Island of Nerdfighteria? 00:00:32
  • → kept 2012-01-31 (2.5 years later): John says the Tour de Nerdfighting is coming to an end after three weeks; last night (30 January 2012) they were signing in Seattle. — How It Felt 00:00:01
• John: edit and host 46 episodes of a new Crash Course History series about Europe (2019) — John
  • promised 2019-01-01: John wants to edit and host 46 episodes of a new Crash Course History series about Europe. — How to Make Goals, Not Resolutions 00:03:15
  • → kept 2020-12-29 (2.0 years later): John did finish Crash Course European History, though the last several episodes were filmed in his basement and directed by Stan over Zoom. — Looking Back at My 2020 Goals 00:00:29
• Hank and John: go to a Rax restaurant together as a P4A 2023 perk (2023) — both
  • promised 2023-02-24: Committing to the bit, the brothers decided to make Rax a priority: having long talked about Rax without going, they are going to go to a Rax. — The P4A 2023 is The Hottest Club on the Internet 00:05:45
  • → kept 2024-04-09 (1.1 years later): After a five-hour road trip the brothers went to Rax together and got four sandwiches; John's low expectations were exceeded. He says the donors' Project for Awesome perk itself is coming soon. — Hank and John Reunited WITH RAX 00:00:00
• John: make at least ten episodes of The Anthropocene Reviewed podcast in 2018 (2018) — John
  • promised 2018-01-02: John wants to make at least ten episodes in 2018 of a new podcast, The Anthropocene Reviewed, reviewing different aspects of the human-centered planet. — BRING IT IN 2018 00:01:05
  • → kept 2019-01-01 (364 days later): John met his 2018 goal of ten episodes of his new podcast The Anthropocene Reviewed, making eleven; it was more work than imagined but more fun. — How to Make Goals, Not Resolutions 00:01:40
• Hank: attend all three 2017 VidCons, in Anaheim, Amsterdam and Melbourne (2016) — Hank
  • promised 2016-12-01 (said on 2016-12-02, implied): Hank says he will be at all three VidCons: Anaheim, Amsterdam and Melbourne. — See you in Amsterdam, Melbourne, or Anaheim!! (also Boston) 00:02:01
  • → kept 2017-09-12 (284 days later): John congratulates Hank on a great VidCon Australia. — How Will the World End? Why Even Get Out of Bed? It's Question Tuesday. 00:03:30
• John: eat five sheets of toilet paper while discussing Nepal on Friday, October 26 (2007) — John
  • promised 2007-01-23: John promises that on Friday he will eat five whole sheets of toilet paper while discussing the political situation in Nepal. (playful) — Week 1 Condensed! 00:03:34
  • → kept 2007-10-26 (276 days later): On Friday as promised, John completes eating five sheets of toilet paper while discussing Nepal. (playful) — OCT. 26: DISCUSSING NEPAL WHILE EATING TOILET PAPER 00:03:10
• John: create safe spoilery places for discussing The Fault in Our Stars (2011) — John
  • promised 2011-05-23: John says they will work hard to create safe spoilery places for the new book, leaving the world outside unspoiled. — Eating the Unicorn 00:02:13
  • → kept 2012-02-14 (267 days later): John has created a password-protected blog where readers who have finished The Fault in Our Stars can read his answers to questions and discuss the book. — Things I Can Do 00:01:57
• Hank: make one more Haiti video on how Water.org changes charity from dependence to independence (2011) — Hank
  • promised 2011-04-04: Hank promises one more Haiti video, about how Water.org and its member organizations change charity from creating dependence to creating independence. — Thoughts from The Well 00:03:40
  • → kept 2011-12-17 (257 days later): Hank's next Haiti video explains that the well is more than a well: a community-owned asset its users pay for and maintain themselves. — We Built a Well in Haiti 00:00:58
• John: go to Wembley to watch AFC Wimbledon if they reach the play-off final (2016) — John
  • promised 2016-05-03: John says that if AFC Wimbledon make the final, he is going to Wembley Stadium to watch the game. — No Fumar 00:02:43
  • → kept 2016-12-27 (238 days later): From the Indy 500 John flew to London to see Nerdfighteria-sponsored AFC Wimbledon win at Wembley for a third-tier spot, then partied at their home stadium with his dad and players. — The Best of My 2016 00:00:50
• John: narrate The Anthropocene Reviewed audiobook (2020) — John
  • promised 2020-09-01: The Anthropocene Reviewed book will be published on May 18, 2021, is available for pre-order now, and will have an audiobook read by John. — get the show on 00:01:27
  • → kept 2021-04-20 (231 days later): John just finished recording The Anthropocene Reviewed audiobook, which was fun; he found only one typo. — Breaking Ground!!! 00:01:46
• John: sign about 150,000 sheets so every US and Canadian pre-order and first-printing copy of The Anthropocene Reviewed book is autographed (2020) — John
  • promised 2020-09-01: As he did with The Fault in Our Stars, John says he will sign the entire first printing of the American and Canadian edition. — get the show on 00:01:27
  • → kept 2021-04-02 (213 days later): Hank notes John is now at 250,000 signatures for The Anthropocene Reviewed and later congratulates him. — John's World Record 00:01:27
• Hank: put out another album, This Machine Pwns n00bs (2009) — Hank
  • promised 2009-05-20: Hank says he will put out another album, date unknown. (hedged: "I don't know when it's going to be out") — Ulcerative Colitis: A Song 00:02:20
  • → kept 2009-11-17 (181 days later): John says Hank's album is already on iTunes but recommends buying the physical CD because it comes with a poster. — Question Tuesday: The Free Money Edition 00:01:05
• John: sign 82,000 sheets to be bound into pre-ordered copies of Hollywood, Ending (2026) — John
  • promised 2026-03-31: John will sign 82,000 sheets of paper to be bound into copies of the book. — I've Been Keeping a Secret… 00:03:24
  • → kept 2026-09-25 (178 days later): Hank says over 100,000 copies of Hollywood, Ending are signed. — Who Has Signed Their Name the Most Times? 00:01:56
• John: break the Question Tuesday record by answering 100 questions in four minutes (2009) — John
  • promised 2009-03-08: John says he will try to set the Question Tuesday world record on Tuesday, and tells Hank to dress up as Carrie Bradshaw soon to avoid a YouTube mutiny. (playful) — PEEPS for Bangladesh 00:02:42
  • → kept 2009-08-30 (175 days later): The description says John answers 100 questions in less than four minutes, completing his Question Tuesday record attempt. — 100 QUESTIONS ANSWERED!!!!!!! video description

How plans drifted

Every promise reported late, changed or dropped (15), with the original promise first.

• John: give away his tote bags on the forum 'My Pants' (2007) — John
  • promised 2007-06-08: John says he is going to give all his tote bags away in the forum 'My Pants'. (playful) — Brotherhood 2.0: June 8: Studying the Clues 00:02:16
  • → dropped 2007-08-30 (83 days later): John lists the giving away of his tote bags among abandoned Brotherhood 2.0 projects. (playful) — August 30th: A Secret Project for Nerdfighters 00:01:43
• John: do a book-themed Question Tuesday (2008) — John
  • promised 2008-04-08: John commits to a joke-heavy Question Tuesday next Monday (14 April 2008), themed on books. — Nerdfighting in Bangladesh 00:00:00
  • → late 2008-04-21 (13 days later): John admits he missed last week's (week of 14 April 2008) Question Tuesday deadline and now answers the book questions belatedly. — Belated Book-tacular Questions 00:00:53
• John: answer why Paper Towns has two covers in his next video (2008) — John
  • promised 2008-09-04: John promises to answer why Paper Towns has two covers in his next video, a Q&A about Paper Towns and the tour. — Paper Towns Tour Dates! 00:00:42
  • → late 2008-09-23 (19 days later): John explains the two Paper Towns covers: each represents a misimagining of the person on it, and since both are fundamentally wrong, neither can be superior. — Paper Towns and Touring Question Tuesday 00:02:52
• Hank (with John): donate $1,000 to a P4A 2008 charity chosen by video quality (2008) — Hank
  • promised 2008-12-11: Hank says he and his brother have both decided to put up a thousand dollars that they will donate to a P4A charity, chosen on charity and video quality ('a thousand ... from John or me'). — The 2008 Project for Awesome!!! 00:02:38
  • → changed 2008-12-26 (15 days later): John reports his P4A donation: $200 each to five charities he chose, rather than one charity. — Skoodilypooping 00:00:40
• John: break the Question Tuesday record by answering 100 questions in four minutes (2009) — John
  • promised 2009-03-08: John says he will try to set the Question Tuesday world record on Tuesday, and tells Hank to dress up as Carrie Bradshaw soon to avoid a YouTube mutiny. (playful) — PEEPS for Bangladesh 00:02:42
  • → changed 2009-08-25 (170 days later): John says he will soon break the Question Tuesday world record by answering 100 questions in four minutes. — The Gift of Gary Busey 00:02:38
  • → kept 2009-08-30 (175 days later): The description says John answers 100 questions in less than four minutes, completing his Question Tuesday record attempt. — 100 QUESTIONS ANSWERED!!!!!!! video description
• John: adhere to the result of the Nerdfighter beard vote (2009) — John
  • promised 2009-06-14: Unlike Iran, John says, he will at least adhere to the results of the Nerdfighter beard vote. (playful) — Iran Election Fraud: 5 Reasons to Doubt the Results 00:00:15
  • → changed 2009-06-17 (said on 2009-06-16, implied) (2 days later): John overrides the preliminary 'keep' result by adding a rule he failed to mention - the Yeti always has 10,000 votes - and ends up shaving half as a compromise. (playful) — Half a Beard 00:00:00
• John: announce the 10-word challenge contest winners on Friday (2009) — John
  • promised 2009-09-22: John says he will announce the 10-word challenge contest winners on Friday, for which he needs 15 paperbacks. — Paper Towns in Paperback: A How-to Guide 00:01:45
  • → late 2009-09-28 (6 days later): John announces the remaining ten Paper Towns paperback winners (song challenge and 10-word comments) on Monday rather than Friday. — Paper Towns Winners and Ningmasters 00:01:40
• Hank: show the rest of his tour gifts and cover the rest of his topics in tomorrow's video (2009) — Hank
  • promised 2009-12-02 (said on 2009-12-03, implied): Hank says that in a video tomorrow he will show the rest of the stuff he got on tour and talk about the rest of what he wanted to discuss. — This Machine Pwns n00bs: A Song 00:03:50
  • → dropped 2009-12-03 (said on 2009-12-04, implied) (1 day later): Hank says the things he said yesterday they would talk about are going out the window because finding balloons is more important. — $40,000 of Red Balloons 00:00:00
• Hank: film a video of each physical Ellen Hardcastle buyer's ten-word script (2011) — Hank
  • promised 2011-07-13: Hank commits to film and post on YouTube a video of the ten-word script sent by each buyer of a physical Ellen Hardcastle (no profanity, English, must make sense). — ELLEN HARDCASTLE IS HERE! A Reunion Video 00:01:05
  • → changed 2011-07-20 (said on 2011-07-21, implied) (8 days later): Hank extends the ten-word-script offer to anyone buying in the next 14 days (LeakyCon/VidCon buyers via a photo with the CD), filming after VidCon and posting on his new Hardcastle Videos channel. — HARDCASTLED! 00:03:07
• John: make at least four episodes of Cooking History with Sarah in 2018 (2018) — John
  • promised 2018-01-02: John wants to collaborate with his wife Sarah in 2018 on at least four episodes of a new YouTube series, Cooking History, uploaded at least initially on the Vlogbrothers channel. — BRING IT IN 2018 00:00:18
  • → dropped 2019-01-01 (364 days later): John missed his goal of a Cooking History video series with Sarah because they didn't make time for it. — How to Make Goals, Not Resolutions 00:02:04
• John: take a year off Facebook, Reddit, Instagram and Twitter, starting when P4A 2018 ends (2018) — John
  • promised 2018-11-06: John will take a year off: he will block Facebook, Reddit, Instagram and Twitter from his browsers and truly dumb down his phone so he cannot access them. — Taking a Year Off 00:02:26
  • → kept 2019-11-07 (1.0 years later): John likes his life much more now: his average daily phone time has fallen by more than 80% and he is getting more work done. — I took a year off social media. Here's what happened. 00:01:27
  • → changed 2019-11-07 (1.0 years later): John is not going back to Twitter, Reddit, Instagram or Facebook, not because they are evil but because right now they don't work for him; he is happier and more productive without them. — I took a year off social media. Here's what happened. 00:02:15
• John: tour with Hank and Sarah for A Beautifully Foolish Endeavor and You Are an Artist (2020) — John
  • promised 2020-01-07: John will tour with both Hank and Sarah, hoping to help their books have good beginnings. — Endings · Beginnings 00:02:35
  • → changed 2020-04-07 (91 days later): The description says John will join Sarah and special guests on the book's virtual tour, replacing the planned in-person tour. — I am an artist. creator comment
• John: sign about 150,000 sheets so every US and Canadian pre-order and first-printing copy of The Anthropocene Reviewed book is autographed (2020) — John
  • promised 2020-09-01: As he did with The Fault in Our Stars, John says he will sign the entire first printing of the American and Canadian edition. — get the show on 00:01:27
  • → changed 2021-02-09 (161 days later): John now needs to sign 250,000 times so every first-printing copy of The Anthropocene Reviewed book is signed; he will do it, and thanks pre-orderers. — Lesser Known YouTube Channels I Love 00:00:00
  • → kept 2021-03-30 (210 days later): John announces he has done it: he has signed his name 250,000 times. — I did it! 00:00:00
  • → kept 2021-04-02 (213 days later): Hank notes John is now at 250,000 signatures for The Anthropocene Reviewed and later congratulates him. — John's World Record 00:01:27
• John: make secret-keeper pottery as Project for Awesome perks (2023) — John
  • promised 2024-08-06: John says he promised his secret-keeper pottery as Project for Awesome perks about 18 months ago (around February 2023). — What Helped Through Depression 00:00:29
  • → late 2024-08-06 (same video): John says he never finished the secret keepers but has now finished them, which is a relief. — What Helped Through Depression 00:00:29
• John: make a large-ish tuberculosis announcement within a week to 10 days, explaining his signing of 100,000 sheets (2024) — John
  • promised 2024-09-27: John says that within the next week to 10 days he will make a large-ish tuberculosis announcement of his own, which will explain why he is signing 100,000 sheets of paper. — Is It 2010? IT'S A PARTS VIDEO 00:01:24
  • → late 2024-10-22 (25 days later): John makes his tuberculosis announcement, his new book, explaining that the boxes behind him are because he is signing 100,000 copies of it. — My New Book: Everything Is Tuberculosis 00:02:50

Due, and no word since

31 promises carry a deadline that falls inside this snapshot, with no later update or outcome on the channel. They may have been delivered off-channel (in a description, on Tumblr, at an event) — this is a list of silences, not failures.

due	promise	promiser	made in
2007-05-10	John: show Hank the lost birthday greetings on Thursday (2007)	John	Brotherhood 2.0: May 8th: House Hunters 00:00:42
2007-11-23	Hank: share what he's thankful for in Friday's video (2007)	Hank	November 20th: A White Thanksgiving 00:03:29
2008-06-22	John: do ten of the Nerdfighters' requests in a video filmed that weekend (2008)	John	Memo to the Fourteenth Century (and to the Tobians) 00:03:46
2008-08-17	John: do another Question Tuesday the following week (August 2008)	John	Question Tuesday Returns (on a Wednesday) 00:03:36
2008-09-13	John: make a video about the Paper Towns Tour on Saturday (2008)	John	A Video about Videos 00:03:21
2008-12-20	Hank: no P4A mailing-list emails after December 20 and no sharing of addresses (2008)	Hank	The 2008 Project for Awesome!!! 00:01:39
2009-04-21	John: email a secret bonus video to people who buy Hank's CD within a week (2009)	John	Question Tuesday 00:02:33
2009-04-26	John: make two Evil Baby Orphanage news videos this weekend (2009)	John	Weekend of Surreality 00:02:16
2009-05-09	Hank: feature some Nerdfighter reviews of the Star Trek film over the weekend (2009)	Hank	Star Trek: The Movie, Review 00:03:08
2009-11-17	John: do a Question Tuesday on Tuesday (November 2009)	John	Gus Is A Bug 00:02:34
2009-11-19	John: pay $2 of Hank's CD price for buyers via DFTBA.com/John for 48 hours (2009)	John	Question Tuesday: The Free Money Edition 00:01:34
2010-05-14	John: do another advice video on Friday (May 2010)	John	Advice on Dumb Boyfriends, Going to College, and More 00:00:13
2010-05-31	John: do his level best to be in the UK in May 2010 (2009)	John	The Island of Nerdfighteria? 00:01:01
2010-11-11	John: prove he is not wearing pants in French Revolution Part III (2010)	John	Headless Monarchy: The French Revolution, Part II 00:06:01
2011-10-25	John: do another Question Tuesday next week (October 2011)	John	Question Wed — THE COVER OF THE FAULT IN OUR STARS! 00:02:30
2012-08-05	Hank: live-tweet the Mars Science Laboratory (Curiosity) landing from the SciShow Twitter on Sunday night (2012)	Hank	EXTRA! Thoughts from Tour 00:03:14
2012-10-31	John: do his punishment next week (2012)	John	Do Businesses Need to Suck? 00:01:27
2013-07-30	John: return to vlogbrothers from paternity leave on July 30 (2013)	John	TFiOS Movie, Bees, Babies, and More! 00:03:48
2014-01-29	John: do a live show reading from Esther Earl's book This Star Won't Go Out (2014)	John	Question Tuesday! TFIOS Movie Trailer, Penguin Knees, and Backflips 00:01:25
2015-03-16	Hank: do a Reddit AMA on Monday about the first of two secret projects (2015)	Hank	Screaming Into Pillows 00:02:20
2015-07-24	John: share a Mountain Goats song he loves every day until the Paper Towns US release (2015)	John	Paper Towns Madrid with Nat Wolff! THE TOUR BEGINS video description
2016-02-29	John: look at the big problems from Davos (income inequality, climate change, refugees, gender inequality and poverty) in coming weeks (2016)	John	Billionaires and Radical Hope: Thoughts from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland 00:03:22
2016-09-13	John: answer viewers' questions about 100 Days in a live show the same day (2016)	John	YouTube's New Thing (and a New Thing of Our Own) 00:03:42
2017-06-30	John: make only three public appearances in the next ten months (NerdCon: Stories, NerdCon: Nerdfighteria, a Cleveland speech) to finish his novel draft (2016)	John	My Body Is a Broken Temple 00:02:34
2018-02-22	John: do a Facebook Live event with Daniel Biss on Thursday at 1pm Eastern (2018)	John	When Your Friend Runs for Governor 00:03:42
2019-12-31	John: spend fewer than 20 nights away from his kids in 2019 (2019)	John	How to Make Goals, Not Resolutions 00:02:28
2019-12-31	John: write 11 more episodes of The Anthropocene Reviewed in 2019 (2019)	John	How to Make Goals, Not Resolutions 00:03:12
2019-12-31	John: write 5,000 words a month of a new novel in 2019 (2019)	John	How to Make Goals, Not Resolutions 00:03:24
2023-12-31	Hank: report next year whether physical products' 2% share of Complexly revenue changed (2022)	Hank	How A YouTube Company Actually Makes Money 00:03:14
2025-06-30	John's family: eat beef only on beef days (four honoring days and two flex days a year) for the next year (2024)	John	BEEF DAYS 00:03:27
2026-09-30	Hank: have Alexis Nikole on Hank's channel to promote her first book when it comes out (2026)	Hank	Project for Awesome 2026 part 3! 03:09:40

How well did they forecast?

429 counted forecasts: 185 hedged (43 %), 51 conditional ("if…", "unless…"), 56 restated in a later video. Horizons: dated 103, soon 33, open-ended 50, not stated 243. The channel reports an outcome for 84; for 67 more the stated horizon already passed inside this snapshot without a report.

forecaster	forecasts	hedged	conditional	dated horizon	horizon passed, no report	came true	wrong
John	166	46 %	27	62	19	40	10
Hank	263	41 %	24	41	16	21	13
all	429	43 %	51	103	35	61	23

Most common hedge words: "probably" (33), "i think" (23), "maybe" (11), "hopefully" (7), "i suspect" (7), "may" (6), "might" (6), "i don't think" (5).

Forecasts whose horizon has passed

Dated forecasts whose horizon falls inside this snapshot, with the outcome if the channel reports one, and the first later statement on the same subject as a lead.

• John: Pakistanis will be less free tomorrow than today (2007) — John · horizon: 2007-11-06 (≈ 2007-11-06)
  • forecast 2007-11-05: John forecasts that the people of Pakistan will be less free tomorrow than today. (hedged: "it looks like") — November 5th: John's Not Happy about Pakistan 00:03:19
  • no report on the channel
• Hank: Julia Nunes will be famous within two years (2008) — Hank · horizon: 2010-04 (≈ 2010-04-30)
  • forecast 2008-04-16 (said on 2008-04-17, implied): Hank predicts Julia Nunes will be famous within two years. — ITCHY MUSIC! 00:02:24
  • no report on the channel; later on the channel 2008-09-04: John announces an October 16 New York launch party for Paper Towns' release with Hank, their parents, the Yeti, Maureen Johnson and other authors; Julia Nunes is floated as a 'rumor'. — Paper Towns Tour Dates! 00:01:12
• John: if his peace steps are taken, Hamas is out of power within a year (2009) — John · horizon: within a year of the steps being taken (≈ 2010-01-04)
  • forecast 2009-01-04: John predicts that if Israel, Hamas and Fatah take his steps, Hamas will be out of power within a year and a 1949-like map with Palestinian sovereignty can follow. (hypothetical) — Israel. Gaza. PUPPY! 00:02:58
  • no report on the channel
• John: the Steelers will beat the Cardinals by six in Super Bowl XLIII (2009) — John · horizon: 2009-02-01 (≈ 2009-02-01)
  • forecast 2009-02-01: John predicts, 'entirely due to mascot superiority', that the Steelers will win Super Bowl 43 by six. (playful) — Super Bowl Analysis from an Idiot 00:03:02
  • no report on the channel; later on the channel 2010-01-29: Hank says the first Super Bowl aired in 1967 and that it has since become America's most watched yearly event. — An Extremely Brief History of Superbowl Commercials 00:00:00
• John: Mubarak will have to step down, and then Egypt's hard work begins (2011) — John · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2011-01-31: John predicts Mubarak will probably have to make a graceful exit, after which the hard work will begin. (hedged: "it looks like") — Revolution in Egypt: A 4-Minute Introduction 00:02:50
  • → came-true 2013-07-05 (2.4 years later): Hank says the internet ended Mubarak's 30 years of censorship; Arab Spring youth protested, the Brotherhood followed, the military declined to help, and Mubarak stepped down. — Egypt....Explained! 00:02:52
• Hank: gay marriage will soon no longer be illegal in the US (2012) — Hank · horizon: soon
  • forecast 2012-09-21: Hank predicts that gay marriage will soon no longer be illegal in the US. — You. Must. Vote. 00:02:42
  • → came-true 2015-06-30 (2.8 years later): John celebrates that anyone anywhere in the US can now marry the person they love, toasting the activists and decades of activism behind it. — Some News 00:03:38
• John: the US federal deficit will fall to about $900 billion in 2013, whoever is president (2012) — John · horizon: 2013 (≈ 2013-12-31)
  • forecast 2012-10-23: John forecasts the federal deficit will fall further in 2013, to about $900 billion, no matter who is president. — Understanding the National Debt and Budget Deficit 00:04:27
  • → came-true 2013-03-12 (140 days later): John says the annual budget deficit is shrinking pretty fast and is probably not a concern at the moment. (hedged: "probably") — Understand the Sequester (Spoiler: It's Bananas.) 00:01:53
• John: the Fault in Our Stars film is actually going to happen (2013) — John · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2013-02-19: Having had his heart broken by Hollywood before, John says he is starting to think the TFIOS movie is actually going to happen. (hedged: "I'm starting to think") — Doing Things, On the Importance of 00:01:21
  • → came-true 2014-06-10 (said on 2014-06-07, implied) (1.3 years later): John says it is actually Saturday because he will be on vacation on Tuesday; the TFiOS film came out in America the day before and he is extremely tired. (playful) — Our Old Friend Complexity: Behind the Beautiful Forevers 00:00:01
• John predicts The Fault in Our Stars movie will be a good movie (2013) — John · horizon: ever
  • forecast 2013-04-02: John says, in what he calls his most positive statement ever about Hollywood, that people should be cautiously optimistic about the film. (hedged: "I think") — TFiOS Movie Casting, New Books, and Groundhog Wars: An Old School Vlogbrothers Video 00:01:56
  • → came-true 2014-06-10 (said on 2014-06-07, implied) (1.2 years later): John says reviews of the TFiOS film have been amazing and, per Rotten Tomatoes, 93% of viewers liked it. — Our Old Friend Complexity: Behind the Beautiful Forevers 00:00:19
• Hank predicts the 2013 government shutdown will be resolved within days or weeks (2013) — Hank · horizon: 2013-10-22 (≈ 2013-10-22)
  • forecast 2013-10-01: Hank predicts the shutdown will be resolved, in perhaps three days or three weeks, because Congress wants the country to exist. — The Lowdown on the Shutdown 00:03:00
  • no report on the channel
• Hank: the TFIOS film is going to be fantastic (2014) — Hank · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2014-01-31: Hank tells John the TFIOS film is going to be fantastic. — In Depth Viewing of the TFiOS Trailer 00:03:42
  • → came-true 2014-06-06 (126 days later): Hank is not worried that the movie is bad or that people won't like it: it is great, people will love it, and he cried several times because it added to him. — Thoughts from the TFiOS Premiere! 00:03:14
• John: if trends continue, within a decade the US may no longer be the best place for the most skilled workers (2014) — John · horizon: 2024 (≈ 2024-12-31)
  • forecast 2014-03-18: John: if current trends continue, within a decade the US may no longer be the best place for skilled workers such as female programmers. (hedged: "may") — Is the American Dream Real? 00:03:10
  • no report on the channel
• John: Ebola treatments or vaccines may exist within a year (2014) — John · horizon: 2015-08 (≈ 2015-08-31)
  • forecast 2014-08-12: John forecasts, citing mounting evidence, that Ebola treatments or vaccines might exist within a year. (hedged: "might") — EBOLA! (...meningitis) 00:02:19
  • no report on the channel
• John: Ebola will not spread widely in the US or Europe (2014) — John · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2014-08-12: John forecasts that Ebola will not spread widely in the US or Europe. — EBOLA! (...meningitis) 00:02:49
  • → came-true 2019-10-01 (5.1 years later): With little running water to sterilize and too few gloves or masks, John says this systemic weakness is why Ebola could ravage Sierra Leone but not the United States or Spain. — Why Are Poor Countries Poor? 00:04:22
• Hank: taxis will be mostly driven by robots within ten years (2014) — Hank · horizon: 2024 (≈ 2024-12-31)
  • forecast 2014-08-29: Hank says taxis will be mostly driven by robots in ten years. — What's the Difference Between A and Z 00:02:52
  • no report on the channel
• John: while the West African Ebola outbreak worsens, outbreaks will occur elsewhere despite travel restrictions (2014) — John · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2014-10-21: John forecasts that while the West African outbreak worsens there will be other outbreaks around the world, whatever visa or fever-screening rules are adopted. — Ebola: What IS Terrifying 00:01:06
  • → came-true 2015-09-08 (322 days later): John partly blames the mess on the delusion that regional crises lack global importance: Ebola in Liberia is Liberia's problem until it's Nigeria's, Germany's and America's; so with Syria's war. — Understanding the Refugee Crisis in Europe, Syria, and around the World 00:07:36
• John: the West African Ebola outbreak will eventually be contained, at a very high cost (2014) — John · horizon: eventually
  • forecast 2014-10-21: John forecasts that the response will eventually be effective and the Ebola outbreak will eventually be contained, at a very high cost. — Ebola: What IS Terrifying 00:03:16
  • → came-true 2018-01-23 (3.3 years later): John says the influx of aid in 2014 helped end the Ebola crisis but did very little to address the long-term crisis. — On Emergencies 00:00:45
• John: the ACA will probably keep working unless the Supreme Court guts it within months (2015) — John · horizon: in a few months
  • forecast 2015-03-24: John predicts the ACA will probably continue to work, unless the Supreme Court eviscerates it in a few months. (hedged: "probably") — Is Obamacare Working? The Affordable Care Act Five Years Later 00:06:27
  • → came-true 2015-06-30 (98 days later): John counts as good news that the US Supreme Court did not cancel "our" health insurance. — Some News 00:03:36
• John: he will lose his race car race against Maggie Stiefvater (2015) — John · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2015-09-29: John says he is going to lose his race against Maggie Stiefvater. (playful) — Writing, Walling, Racing, and Wizard Schooling 00:00:58
  • → came-true 2015-10-13 (14 days later): John lost his race car race to Maggie Stiefvater, as he had predicted. — John Green's Fiery Race Car Disaster 00:02:24
• John: Looking for Alaska may never be made into a movie (2016) — John · horizon: never
  • forecast 2016-01-19: Asked when Looking for Alaska will become a movie, John says he doesn't know, maybe never; he hopes that changes but doesn't expect it to. (hedged: "Maybe") — The Looking for Alaska Movie, Davos, and Hufflepuff Shade: It's Question Tuesday 00:01:59
  • → came-true 2018-10-31 (2.8 years later): John says the studio hired great screenwriters and a director, then cancelled the movie at the last minute; heartbroken and angry, he told them he was out. — The Looking for Alaska Thing 00:02:26
• Hank: respecting political opponents will get harder as the 2016 US election season goes on (2016) — Hank · horizon: 2016-11 (≈ 2016-11-30)
  • forecast 2016-03-11: Hank says Americans find this ever harder, and it will get harder the deeper the country gets into this election season. — The Politics of "Parks and Rec" 00:03:01
  • → came-true 2016-08-12 (154 days later): Hank says he really loves the country, though it is harder in election years, when Americans demonize each other so hard that everyone ends up looking like demons. — AMERICA, DAMMIT! - Thoughts from Glacier National Park 00:02:13
• John: the 2016 nominee may not be the candidate with the most primary and caucus support (2016) — John · horizon: 2016 (≈ 2016-12-31)
  • forecast 2016-03-22: John says that this year (2016), unlike the last 10 cycles, the candidate with the most primary and caucus support may not become the nominee. (hedged: "may") — Understanding the Primaries: Delegates, Democracy, and America's Nonstop Political Party 00:05:07
  • no report on the channel
• John predicts the overall US cancer survival rate may reach 70% in 2016 (2016) — John · horizon: 2016 (≈ 2016-12-31)
  • forecast 2016-08-16: John says the overall US cancer survival rate, very close to 70%, might reach that milestone this year (2016). (hedged: "might") — Some Good News: 16 Ways 2016 Is Not a Total Dumpster Fire 00:01:33
  • no report on the channel
• John predicts the global economy will probably grow faster in 2016 than in 2015 (2016) — John · horizon: 2016 (≈ 2016-12-31)
  • forecast 2016-08-16: John says the global economy will probably grow faster this year (2016) than last year (2015). (hedged: "probably") — Some Good News: 16 Ways 2016 Is Not a Total Dumpster Fire 00:02:27
  • no report on the channel
• Hank: Denise Juneau is unlikely to win Montana's US House race (2016) — Hank · horizon: 2016 (≈ 2016-12-31)
  • forecast 2016-10-21: In the description Hank says it was always, and remains, unlikely that Juneau will win her race against Ryan Zinke. (hedged: "unlikely") — Coming Out, Goats, Government, and Attack Ads with Denise Juneau video description
  • no report on the channel
• John: the 2016 US presidential election will not be rigged (2016) — John · horizon: 2016 (≈ 2016-12-31)
  • forecast 2016-10-25: John says the US presidential election will not be rigged, any more than the 2004 one was. — Will the U.S. Presidential Election Be Rigged? 00:05:58
  • → came-true 2017-09-26 (336 days later): None of this means the election was illegitimate (it wasn't) or that Trump didn't win (he did). — Trump and Russia: An Introduction to What We Know (and What We Don't) 00:02:31
• John predicts 2016's hottest-year record will likely be broken in 2017 (2016) — John · horizon: 2017 (≈ 2017-12-31)
  • forecast 2016-11-15: John says 2016's hottest-year record will likely only stand until 2017. (hedged: "likely") — Good News/Bad News: A Pizzamas Video in Nine Slices 00:01:05
  • no report on the channel
• John: much of the immigration executive order may be moot in three or four months as parts expire (2017) — John · horizon: 2017-05 (≈ 2017-05-31)
  • forecast 2017-01-31: John says much of this may be moot in three or four months as parts of the order expire. (hedged: "may") — Understanding Trump's Executive Order on Immigration 00:06:37
  • no report on the channel; later on the channel 2017-02-03: Hank says that as part of Trump's refugee ban, federal funding to local organizations helping refugees find work, training and basics like toothpaste and tampons has been eliminated. — Are We Making Things Worse? 00:02:26
• John: Daniel Biss has a very good chance of winning the March 20 Illinois Democratic primary for governor (2018) — John · horizon: 2018-03-20 (≈ 2018-03-20)
  • forecast 2018-02-20: John says Daniel has a very good chance of winning the March 20th Democratic primary, though his opponents are a billionaire who spent tens of millions on ads and a literal Kennedy. (hedged: "has a very good chance") — When Your Friend Runs for Governor 00:02:09
  • no report on the channel
• Hank: a growing share of people will be able to work as professional creators, thanks to fractured fame and new patronage models (2018) — Hank · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2018-05-11: Hank thinks a growing percentage of people will be able to be professional creators because of the fracturing of fame and the rise of new patronage models. (hedged: "I think") — Looking for Alaska Movie (BUT BETTER) and YouTuber Things 00:02:41
  • → came-true 2024-08-27 (6.3 years later): John says the culture shift on selling out has let many more people make a living, which he considers good news. — How The Internet Is Rigged 00:03:40
• John: Senegal could reach the semifinals of the 2018 World Cup (2018) — John · horizon: 2018-07 (≈ 2018-07-31)
  • forecast 2018-06-12: Though nobody agrees, John thinks Senegal could reach the semifinals because Sadio Mané is very good, and denies any Liverpool bias. (hedged: "I think") — Your 4-Minute Guide to ALL 32 TEAMS at the 2018 World Cup 00:03:05
  • no report on the channel; later on the channel 2018-06-15: That shared denominator unifies us, so Hank is going to try to watch some World Cup this year (2018). — Sports are Dumb video description
• John: the Looking for Alaska Hulu series will really happen this time (2018) — John · horizon: 2019 (≈ 2019-12-31)
  • forecast 2018-08-14: John says Looking for Alaska is to be adapted into a Hulu limited series; it's still happening, he has read the great first-episode script, and that's all he knows. — Question Tuesday: Secrets & Primes 00:00:29
  • → came-true 2019-11-01 (1.2 years later): John says the Looking for Alaska TV series has just come out and is really wonderful. — On Looking Up to Your Little Brother 00:01:41
• John: as Sierra Leoneans trust mental health care, demand for its services will keep rising (2019) — John · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2019-04-09: John predicts that as Sierra Leoneans come to trust mental health care to work, demand for services will keep rising, bringing new challenges. — The Only Psychiatric Hospital in Sierra Leone 00:04:05
  • → came-true 2021-04-20 (2.0 years later): The mental health clinic is growing, as is a new clinic for adolescent care. — Breaking Ground!!! 00:01:16
• John: as a teaching hospital the Maternal Center of Excellence will train the next generation of Sierra Leonean health care workers (2019) — John · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2019-10-22: John says the plan includes building and supporting a Maternal Center of Excellence at Koidu Government Hospital, with a NICU, more C-section operating rooms and a teaching hospital. — Why We're Donating $6,500,000 00:03:54
  • → came-true 2026-04-28 (6.5 years later): John says the facility is training the next generation of Sierra Leonean nurses, midwives and doctors. — What I Can't Show You 00:03:24
• Hank: A Beautifully Foolish Endeavor will hit bookshelves within 12 months (2019) — Hank · horizon: 2020-10 (≈ 2020-10-31)
  • forecast 2019-10-31: Hank hopes the book will be on shelves within the next 12 months. (hedged: "I hope") — Book News! 00:03:30
  • → came-true 2020-07-07 (250 days later): A Beautifully Foolish Endeavor is available now wherever books are sold, and they launch it tonight at 7pm at youtube.com/vlogbrothers. — You're a Rock Star 00:03:13
• Hank: the 2020 election year will be stressful (2019) — Hank · horizon: 2020 (≈ 2020-12-31)
  • forecast 2019-12-27: Hank says 2020 is an election year and will be stressful because of it; election years always are. — Why I'm Worried about 2020 00:01:10
  • → came-true 2020-10-30 (308 days later): Hank says he looked up these searches because he doesn't know how to handle this moment; this will be a rough weekend for him. — Four Years Ago 00:03:05
• John: finishing the Maternal Center of Excellence fundraising may not be realistic in 2020 (2020) — John · horizon: 2020 (≈ 2020-12-31)
  • forecast 2020-01-07: John's most important 2020 goal is to finish raising the money, though maybe 2020 isn't realistic for it. (hedged: "maybe") — Endings · Beginnings 00:01:17
  • → wrong 2020-12-29 (357 days later): Despite all the unforeseen events of the year, the goal of raising the money for the Maternal Center of Excellence was reached. — Looking Back at My 2020 Goals 00:02:50
• John: the Maternal Center of Excellence will dramatically change the quality of care for women and children in its region (2020) — John · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2020-01-07: John says Partners In Health needs $20 million to break ground on the Maternal Center of Excellence, which will dramatically improve healthcare for women and children in Sierra Leone. — Endings · Beginnings 00:00:48
  • → came-true 2026-04-28 (6.3 years later): John lists the MCOE's piped oxygen, a laundry still under construction, 120 maternal beds and the nation's first NICU, and says it has transformed the care possible in Kono and Sierra Leone. — What I Can't Show You 00:02:55
• Hank: the James Webb Space Telescope will launch in March 2021 (2020) — Hank · horizon: 2021-03 (≈ 2021-03-31)
  • forecast 2020-01-31: The description says the image maps candidates for other telescopes, especially the infrared James Webb Space Telescope, which will launch, fingers crossed, in March 2021. (hedged: "fingers crossed") — How Many Stars are in the Sky? video description
  • → wrong 2021-12-24 (1.9 years later): The launch is scheduled for Christmas morning at 7:20 a.m. Eastern Time. — 29 Days of Astronomical Terror 00:03:24
• John: the one-like-per-ten-views ratio will probably not hold for this video (2020) — John · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2020-02-25: Feeling as nervous as if asking someone to prom, John asks viewers to click like to break the cycle or find the ratio is real; probably not, but he asks them to like it so he can disprove the theory. (hedged: "Probably not") — A weird YouTube thing? 00:03:20
  • → came-true 2020-02-25 (same video): In comment updates John reports the 1:10 ratio is dead: at 17 hours the video had 107,000 views and 47,000 likes, about 1:2.2, with views about 35% above normal. — A weird YouTube thing?
• Hank: there will be no signed copies of A Beautifully Foolish Endeavor for markets outside the US this year (2020) — Hank · horizon: 2020 (≈ 2020-12-31)
  • forecast 2020-02-28: The description says Hank did signed copies for other markets last year (2019) but doesn't think that will happen this year (2020); he is at the mercy of how publishing works. (hedged: "I don't think") — I'M FINE EVERYTHING IS FINE video description
  • → wrong 2020-06-12 (105 days later): Hank says signed editions of A Beautifully Foolish Endeavor can now be pre-ordered at Waterstones in the UK. — Fed to the Rules 00:02:59
• John: the Vlogbrothers like-to-view ratio will revert to the mean (2020) — John · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2020-03-03: Asked in comments how the like/view ratio is holding up, John says it holds incredibly well on the Art Assignment video; here it is still a little off because people are conscious of it, but reverting to the mean. — Consciously Experiencing Human Dignity
  • → came-true 2026-09-15 (6.5 years later): John says that on their channel, consistently over 20 years, one person liked a video for every 10 who watched it: the ratio he once made a video about. — YouTube Says This Video Has 683,183 Views, It Actually Has 312,584 00:00:29
• John: the COVID-19 pandemic will put many people at risk of serious illness and death (2020) — John · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2020-03-17: John says it is now clear the pandemic will put many people at risk of serious illness and death. — together. 00:01:56
  • → came-true 2020-07-14 (119 days later): The last 12 weeks have been the deadliest 12-week period in the US in many decades, yet people still call it a hoax. — The ice we skate is getting pretty thin. 00:01:27
• Hank: Montana's closure of nonessential businesses will likely last beyond April 10 (2020) — Hank · horizon: 2020-04-10 (≈ 2020-04-10)
  • forecast 2020-03-27: The description says Montana has asked nonessential businesses to close until at least April 10th, likely longer, and that DFTBA will re-open. (hedged: "likely") — Take a Break with Some Feather Stars video description
  • no report on the channel
• Hank: None Pizza with Left Hank may outsell None Pizza with Left John before its sale ends (2020) — Hank · horizon: 2020-05-10 (≈ 2020-05-10)
  • forecast 2020-05-08: Hank says None Pizza with Left Hank, on sale for about two more days, may outsell None Pizza with Left John. (hedged: "maybe") — The years start coming and they don't stop coming! 00:02:27
  • no report on the channel
• Hank: only a couple more Bizarre Beasts videos are left on Vlogbrothers (2020) — Hank · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2020-05-15: Hank thinks he has only a couple more Bizarre Beasts videos left on Vlogbrothers. (hedged: "I think") — Lookin' Kinda Dumb! 00:02:55
  • → came-true 2020-06-26 (42 days later): Hank presents the twelfth and concluding Vlogbrothers Bizarre Beast before the series moves to its own channel. — You Might as Well Swim! 00:00:00
• Hank: people won't follow celebrities to Quibi (2020) — Hank · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2020-05-29: Hank says Quibi misunderstands celebrity: a star may inform which movie people see, but people won't follow a celebrity to a new platform because they don't care much about celebrities. — Get Paid 00:01:15
  • → came-true 2020-07-17 (49 days later): Hank says that during quarantine Quibi, despite billions of dollars spent on the most talented creators, flopped ("blehh") while TikTok took off. — So Much to See 00:02:28
• John: Koidu Government Hospital's special baby care unit will open later in July 2020 (2020) — John · horizon: 2020-07 (≈ 2020-07-31)
  • forecast 2020-07-21: Later this month (July 2020) a special baby care unit opens at Koidu Government Hospital, which John calls a huge milestone for infant care. — Somebody Once Asked . . . 00:01:56
  • → came-true 2021-04-20 (273 days later): Change is already happening: in the last year neonatal mortality at Koidu Government Hospital fell by 50% thanks to a new infant care unit. — Breaking Ground!!! 00:00:29
• John: SpaceX will not send a ship to Mars in 2022 (2020) — John · horizon: in 2022 (≈ 2022-12-31)
  • forecast 2020-08-25: Against the TikTok's claim that SpaceX sends its first ship to Mars in 2022, John says SpaceX is not sending a ship to Mars in 2022. — Somebody once told me… 00:01:56
  • no report on the channel
• John: The Anthropocene Reviewed book will be available to pre-order on Bookshop.org within a couple of days (2020) — John · horizon: 2020-09-03 (≈ 2020-09-03)
  • forecast 2020-09-01: In a comment John says the book can not yet be pre-ordered on Bookshop.org, which awaits a third-party data feed, and hopes it will be possible within a couple of days. (speculative) — get the show on
  • no report on the channel
• John: The Anthropocene Reviewed book will probably be published in Brazil (2020) — John · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2020-09-01: In a comment John thinks the book will be available in Brazil and says he really hopes his Brazilian publisher Intrinseca will publish it. (speculative) — get the show on
  • → came-true 2021-10-06 (1.1 years later): John's book The Anthropocene Reviewed comes out in Brazil this week (week of 4 October 2021); unable to go there because of the state of the world, he celebrates in Brazil, Indiana. — Searching for Betsy in Brazil 00:00:00
• John: on October 13, 2020 it will be unseasonably warm in Indianapolis (2020) — John · horizon: 2020-10-13 (≈ 2020-10-13)
  • forecast 2020-10-13 (said on 2020-10-05, implied): Using modeling and data, John predicts that on upload day it is unseasonably warm in Indianapolis. — Me from the Past: A Pizzamas Miracle 00:00:58
  • → wrong 2020-10-14 (9 days later): Hank says Indianapolis was not really unseasonably warm, only about three degrees warmer than usual, so he calls John's prediction a miss. — John Predicts the Future! 00:00:00
• John: US newly diagnosed COVID-19 cases on October 12, 2020 will be about 10 to 12% higher than a week earlier (2020) — John · horizon: 2020-10-12 (≈ 2020-10-12)
  • forecast 2020-10-13 (said on 2020-10-05, implied): John predicts that US newly diagnosed COVID cases the day before upload were higher than a week earlier, probably by around 10 to 12%. (hedged: "probably") — Me from the Past: A Pizzamas Miracle 00:00:58
  • → came-true 2020-10-14 (9 days later): Hank reports US new COVID cases rose week to week from 41,601 to 45,791, almost exactly 10%, so John's prediction was a win. — John Predicts the Future! 00:00:29
• John: about 40 people will buy the Pizza John shirt on October 13, 2020 (2020) — John · horizon: 2020-10-13 (≈ 2020-10-13)
  • forecast 2020-10-13 (said on 2020-10-05, implied): John predicts about 40 people will buy the Pizza John shirt on upload day, and tells viewers not to be afraid to beat that expectation. (hedged: "probably") — Me from the Past: A Pizzamas Miracle 00:01:27
  • → wrong 2020-10-14 (9 days later): Hank says they blew John's shirt prediction out of the water, selling more than 95, an example of how imagining the future affects the future. — John Predicts the Future! 00:00:58
• John: AFC Wimbledon might draw their game against Swindon Town (2020) — John · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2020-10-13 (said on 2020-10-05, implied): With some data but not enough, John guesses AFC Wimbledon might eke out a draw against Swindon Town based on current form. (speculative) — Me from the Past: A Pizzamas Miracle 00:01:27
  • → wrong 2020-10-14 (9 days later): Hank reports AFC Wimbledon had a single shot on target against Swindon Town, and it went in. — John Predicts the Future! 00:00:58
• John: the upcoming presidential debate will be much discussed on October 13, 2020 (2020) — John · horizon: 2020-10-13 (≈ 2020-10-13)
  • forecast 2020-10-13 (said on 2020-10-05, implied): From scheduled events, John suspects the upcoming presidential debate is being much discussed in the viewers' present. (hedged: "I suspect") — Me from the Past: A Pizzamas Miracle 00:01:27
  • → came-true 2020-10-14 (9 days later): Hank calls John's prediction that the upcoming debate would be much discussed a great prediction. — John Predicts the Future! 00:01:28
• John: news of the President's COVID-19 hospitalization will not feel big eight days later (2020) — John · horizon: 2020-10-13 (≈ 2020-10-13)
  • forecast 2020-10-13 (said on 2020-10-05, implied): John suspects that news, very big to him, will not feel big to viewers eight days later because news cycles are moving much faster. (hedged: "I suspect") — Me from the Past: A Pizzamas Miracle 00:01:56
  • → came-true 2020-10-14 (9 days later): Hank says John was right: the President's COVID hospitalization is somehow no longer a big deal in our minds. — John Predicts the Future! 00:01:57
• John: in eight days Twitter, Reddit and Facebook will be dumpster fires he cannot stop refreshing (2020) — John · horizon: 2020-10-13 (≈ 2020-10-13)
  • forecast 2020-10-13 (said on 2020-10-05, implied): Among vague predictions that are always accurate, John predicts Twitter, Reddit and Facebook will be dumpster fires he can't stop refreshing unless he physically leaves the internet. (playful) — Me from the Past: A Pizzamas Miracle 00:02:26
  • no report on the channel
• John: in eight days people will feel there is cause for alarm (2020) — John · horizon: 2020-10-13 (≈ 2020-10-13)
  • forecast 2020-10-13 (said on 2020-10-05, implied): John predicts that we will feel there is cause for alarm. — Me from the Past: A Pizzamas Miracle 00:02:26
  • → came-true 2020-10-14 (9 days later): Hank tells John there is, and continues to be, cause for alarm. — John Predicts the Future! 00:02:26
• John: in eight days there will be cause for alarm (2020) — John · horizon: 2020-10-13 (≈ 2020-10-13)
  • forecast 2020-10-13 (said on 2020-10-05, implied): John also predicts that there will be cause for alarm. — Me from the Past: A Pizzamas Miracle 00:02:26
  • → came-true 2020-10-14 (9 days later): Hank tells John there is, and continues to be, cause for alarm. — John Predicts the Future! 00:02:26
• Hank: Joe Biden will be the next US president (2020) — Hank · horizon: 2021-01-22 (≈ 2021-01-22)
  • forecast 2020-11-06 (said on 2020-11-05, implied): The description, written after recording, says Joe Biden is almost certain to be the next president of the United States. (hedged: "almost certain") — Just Some Election Thoughts… video description
  • no report on the channel; later on the channel 2021-08-13: President Biden has said he will not sign his $1.2 billion infrastructure package unless there is also a climate plan on his desk; 'here's hoping'. — How We Fix the Climate 00:14:07
• John: safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines are coming (2020) — John · horizon: coming
  • forecast 2020-11-10: John hopes a new vaccine is coming and says that, if it is, we should build not a statue of one person but monuments to the open cooperation of thousands that achieves shared immunity. — On Immunity, Inoculation, and Individuals 00:03:24
  • → came-true 2021-04-06 (147 days later): The COVID vaccines approved in the US and much of the world are safe and effective; over 100 million people have received them, and they dramatically reduce personal and societal risk. — How Do You Do, Fellow Kids? 00:01:27
• John: the Maternal Center of Excellence should dramatically accelerate progress in care at Koidu (2020) — John · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2020-11-17: The change is happening, but John and PIH believe a high-quality teaching hospital must accelerate it. — Our Biggest Project Yet: A One Year Update 00:01:56
  • → came-true 2026-02-24 (5.3 years later): John says the Paul Farmer Maternal Center of Excellence finally opened at Koidu Government Hospital, radically transforming infant and maternal care in eastern Sierra Leone. — Risk Is a Privilege 00:00:00
• John: Partners In Health will break ground on the Maternal Center of Excellence in spring 2021 (2020) — John · horizon: 2021 (≈ 2021-12-31)
  • forecast 2020-11-17: Despite COVID, groundbreaking on the Maternal Center of Excellence is still planned for April 2021, the original date, a credit to PIH and Sierra Leone's government. — Our Biggest Project Yet: A One Year Update 00:01:56
  • → came-true 2022-01-04 (1.1 years later): With PIH's own fundraising and support from Life's Library and the Awesome Socks Club, ground has broken on the Maternal Center of Excellence. — After 15 Years on YouTube, THIS IS THE MOST AMAZING THING 00:00:58
• John: at current monthly donation rates, the PIH Sierra Leone project will raise over $15 million in five years (2020) — John · horizon: 2024 (≈ 2024-12-31)
  • forecast 2020-11-17: Thanks to thousands of monthly donors at pih.org/hankandjohn, matched by donors within Nerdfighteria, current rates will raise over $15 million over five years. — Our Biggest Project Yet: A One Year Update 00:04:43
  • → came-true 2023-05-02 (2.5 years later): Helped by the nearly $40 million Nerdfighteria and PIH raised over three and a half years, the MCOE will be the world-class center Kono's mothers and children deserve. — GOOD NEWS 00:01:27
• John: at current rates, matched monthly donations to the PIH Sierra Leone project will raise over $15 million over five years (2020) — John · horizon: 2025 (≈ 2025-12-31)
  • forecast 2020-11-17: John says that at current donation rates the matched monthly donations will raise over $15 million over five years (by 2025). — Our Biggest Project Yet: A One Year Update 00:04:43
  • no report on the channel
• Hank: COVID-19 vaccines will be distributed within 30 days (2020) — Hank · horizon: 2020-12-20 (≈ 2020-12-20)
  • forecast 2020-11-20: The description says that with vaccines to be distributed within 30 days, staying home and wearing masks is even more valuable: we are now buying time for a visible goal. — Would I Take a COVID Vaccine? video description
  • no report on the channel
• John: next year there will be feasting and dancing again (2020) — John · horizon: 2021 (≈ 2021-12-31)
  • forecast 2020-11-24: John tells Hank he can't come to Thanksgiving, but next year (2021) there will be feasting and dancing in Jerusalem. — personal risk · societal risk 00:03:24
  • no report on the channel
• John: there should be new episodes of The Anthropocene Reviewed podcast in 2021 (2020) — John · horizon: 2021 (≈ 2021-12-31)
  • forecast 2020-12-29: Barring unforeseen catastrophes, there should be some new episodes of The Anthropocene Reviewed next year (2021). (hedged: "barring unforeseen catastrophes") — Looking Back at My 2020 Goals 00:00:45
  • → came-true 2021-04-27 (119 days later): A new podcast episode comes out on Thursday, about Penguins of Madagascar and the smallpox vaccine. — What is my new book about? creator comment
• Hank: by 2020 there will be cures for almost every illness and people will be 200 years old (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The essay predicts cures for almost every illness and 200-year-old people; Hank notes the math fails, since the oldest person in 1990 could only be 140 in 2020. (playful) — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:00:29
  • → wrong 2021-01-01 (same video): The essay predicts cures for almost every illness and 200-year-old people; Hank notes the math fails, since the oldest person in 1990 could only be 140 in 2020. (playful) — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:00:29
• Hank: Iraq will release hostages in 1991 (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The timeline's first prediction, Iraq releasing hostages in 1991, actually happened in December 1990, so Hank says he was close. — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:01:20
  • → came-true 2021-01-01 (same video): The timeline's first prediction, Iraq releasing hostages in 1991, actually happened in December 1990, so Hank says he was close. — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:01:20
• Hank: there will be peace in the Middle East in 1993 (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The timeline predicted peace in the Middle East for 1993. (playful) — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:01:20
  • → wrong 2021-01-01 (same video): The timeline predicted peace in the Middle East for 1993. (playful) — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:01:20
• Hank: there will be a first community on the Moon (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The timeline's first community on the Moon has not happened yet. — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:01:51
  • → wrong 2021-01-01 (same video): The timeline's first community on the Moon has not happened yet. — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:01:51
• Hank: electric cars will arrive in 1995 (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The timeline predicted electric cars for 1995; the GM EV1 came out in 1996, which Hank brags about. (playful) — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:01:51
  • → came-true 2021-01-01 (same video): The timeline predicted electric cars for 1995; the GM EV1 came out in 1996, which Hank brags about. (playful) — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:01:51
• Hank: people will go to Mars in 1996 (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The timeline's 1996 trip to Mars did not happen, unless one counts the 1997 Pathfinder mission. — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:01:51
  • → wrong 2021-01-01 (same video): The timeline's 1996 trip to Mars did not happen, unless one counts the 1997 Pathfinder mission. — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:01:51
• Hank: the US will have its first black president in 1999 (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The timeline put the first black president in 1999, not an election year, but Hank notes that did come true. — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:01:51
  • → came-true 2021-01-01 (same video): The timeline put the first black president in 1999, not an election year, but Hank notes that did come true. — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:01:51
• Hank: cancer will be cured in 2000 (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The timeline cured cancer in 2000; Hank apologises to little Hank that there turn out to be many cancers. (playful) — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:01:51
  • → wrong 2021-01-01 (same video): The timeline cured cancer in 2000; Hank apologises to little Hank that there turn out to be many cancers. (playful) — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:01:51
• Hank: the US will have its first woman president in 2002 (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The timeline gave a first woman president in 2002, three years after the first black president, and a true ghost discovered in 2004, which did not happen. (playful) — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:02:21
  • → wrong 2021-01-01 (same video): The timeline gave a first woman president in 2002, three years after the first black president, and a true ghost discovered in 2004, which did not happen. (playful) — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:02:21
• Hank: a true ghost will be discovered in 2004 (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The timeline gave a first woman president in 2002, three years after the first black president, and a true ghost discovered in 2004, which did not happen. (playful) — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:02:21
  • → wrong 2021-01-01 (same video): The timeline gave a first woman president in 2002, three years after the first black president, and a true ghost discovered in 2004, which did not happen. (playful) — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:02:21
• Hank: the rainforest will be lost forever in 2009 (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The timeline predicted the rainforest lost forever in 2009; Hank notes he expected a cool 2020 without rainforests, so their survival is a win. (playful) — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:02:21
  • → wrong 2021-01-01 (same video): The timeline predicted the rainforest lost forever in 2009; Hank notes he expected a cool 2020 without rainforests, so their survival is a win. (playful) — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:02:21
• Hank: thousands of aliens will come in peace in 2016 (1990) — Hank · horizon: coming
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The timeline's 2016 entry, thousands of aliens coming in peace, has not happened, but Hank says we are still holding out hope. (playful) — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:03:13
  • → wrong 2021-01-01 (same video): The timeline's 2016 entry, thousands of aliens coming in peace, has not happened, but Hank says we are still holding out hope. (playful) — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:03:13
• Hank: Garfield will turn 80 in 2020 (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The 2020 prediction, Garfield turning 80, was wrong: Garfield turned 42 this year (2021), which Hank could have looked up. — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:03:13
  • → wrong 2021-01-01 (same video): The 2020 prediction, Garfield turning 80, was wrong: Garfield turned 42 this year (2021), which Hank could have looked up. — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:03:13
• John: P4A perk shipping will be better in 2021 than after the last P4A (2021) — John · horizon: 2021 (≈ 2021-12-31)
  • forecast 2021-01-19: John apologizes that some perks from the last P4A still havent gone out: the all-volunteer operation ships slowly and COVID hurt manufacturing and shipping; he thinks they have it figured out and it will be better this year (2021). — let's go on a parts adventure 00:00:58
  • no report on the channel
• John: a global disease pandemic is coming and everyone must prepare for it (2019) — John · horizon: coming
  • forecast 2021-02-02: John recalls predicting the pandemic: in mid-2019 on Dear Hank and John he said everyone must prepare for the coming global disease pandemic, and a year earlier he listed one among his chief fears. — I Predicted the Pandemic (over and over and over again) 00:00:00
  • → came-true 2021-02-02 (same video): John recalls predicting the pandemic: in mid-2019 on Dear Hank and John he said everyone must prepare for the coming global disease pandemic, and a year earlier he listed one among his chief fears. — I Predicted the Pandemic (over and over and over again) 00:00:00
• Hank: P4A 2021 money will go to many charities and have a lot of real-world impact (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2021-02-19: Hank predicts the P4A will distribute a lot of money to many charities and have a lot of real-world impact. — Bean Meme Review 00:12:30
  • → came-true 2022-02-08 (354 days later): John says last year (2021) the Project for Awesome donated over $27,000 to each charity chosen by the community. — How Much Money Vlogbrothers Makes from YouTube (...and where it goes) 00:03:26
• Hank: 25% of people in the US will be fully vaccinated within a month (2021) — Hank · horizon: within a month (≈ 2021-04-25)
  • forecast 2021-03-26: Hank says that sometime in the next month 25% of people in the US will be fully vaccinated, many of them the most at-risk. — Why I'm Worried about 2021 00:00:29
  • no report on the channel
• John: The Anthropocene Reviewed will not be his last book (2021) — John · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2021-03-30: Wanting more work for the LectroJog, John hopes The Anthropocene Reviewed will not be his last book. (hedged: "hopefully") — I did it! 00:02:25
  • → came-true 2026-03-31 (5.0 years later): John last published books in consecutive years in 2005 and 2006; now, 20 years later, Everything Is Tuberculosis came out last year (2025) and Hollywood, Ending comes out this year (2026). — I've Been Keeping a Secret… 00:00:29
• John: if everyone were fully vaccinated, COVID-19 would be at most a minor problem for humans (2021) — John · horizon: tomorrow (≈ 2021-04-07)
  • forecast 2021-04-06: If everyone were fully vaccinated tomorrow, COVID-19 would be at most a minor problem for humans. — How Do You Do, Fellow Kids? 00:01:56
  • no report on the channel
• Hank: more people will soon post on theanthropocenereviewed.com (2021) — Hank · horizon: soon
  • forecast 2021-05-14: Hank expects more people to appear on the site soon. (hedged: "I imagine") — This Vlogbrothers Stat Blew My Mind 00:03:18
  • → came-true 2021-05-18 (4 days later): John says it has been a joy to watch the books start to travel and, this morning, to read readers' reviews of their locations on the site. — Saying What I've Needed to Say to Hank for a While 00:00:37
• Hank: the $500 Crash Course coins will probably be sold out by the time this video goes up (2021) — Hank · horizon: 2021-06-25 (≈ 2021-06-25)
  • forecast 2021-06-25: Hank says the $500 coins are probably sold out by the time the video goes up, but maybe not. (hedged: "probably") — The Surprising Origin of Crash Course 00:03:09
  • no report on the channel
• Hank: ivermectin might prove an effective COVID treatment within a year (2021) — Hank · horizon: 2022-07 (≈ 2022-07-31)
  • forecast 2021-07-30: Hank says that by this time next year (2022) ivermectin might be shown to be an effective COVID treatment. (hedged: "might") — Can You Trust Science Too Much? 00:01:35
  • no report on the channel
• John (unfilmed February 2020 script): very likely we will think in two months that we overreacted to coronavirus (2020) — John · horizon: 2020-04 (≈ 2020-04-30)
  • forecast 2021-10-08: The 2020 script predicted that in two months we would very likely think we had overreacted to the threat of coronavirus. (hedged: "very likely") — On February 3rd, 2020, I Wrote a Video I Didn't Make. Here It Is. 00:01:45
  • → wrong 2021-10-08 (same video): Current John says this part does not hold up: he is not sure it was ever very likely. (hedged: "I'm not sure") — On February 3rd, 2020, I Wrote a Video I Didn't Make. Here It Is. 00:01:50
• John (unfilmed February 2020 script): coronavirus may prove catastrophic within two months (2020) — John · horizon: 2020-04 (≈ 2020-04-30)
  • forecast 2021-10-08: The script's worst case: in two months we might remember coronavirus as having been catastrophic. (hedged: "It's also possible") — On February 3rd, 2020, I Wrote a Video I Didn't Make. Here It Is. 00:02:35
  • → wrong 2021-10-08 (same video): Current John asks how his past self, who studies and is obsessed with infectious diseases, imagined a worst case only 60 days long. (playful) — On February 3rd, 2020, I Wrote a Video I Didn't Make. Here It Is. 00:02:46
• John: cell phones are a fad, like beepers (c. 2005) — John · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2021-10-12: When he fell in love with Sarah, John had no cell phone, thinking phones a fad like beepers; he jokes he has always been a genius at predicting the future. (playful) — Fine, I'll take the bait. 00:02:55
  • → wrong 2021-10-12 (same video): When he fell in love with Sarah, John had no cell phone, thinking phones a fad like beepers; he jokes he has always been a genius at predicting the future. (playful) — Fine, I'll take the bait. 00:02:55
• Hank: the Awesome Socks Club will donate over $900,000 to charity this year (2021) — Hank · horizon: 2021 (≈ 2021-12-31)
  • forecast 2021-11-05: Hank says they project that the Awesome Socks Club will donate over $900,000 to charity this year (2021). — We Have Invented Something Marvelous 00:01:27
  • no report on the channel
• Hank: the 2021 Awesome Socks Club will sell out before sign-up closes on Sunday at midnight (2021) — Hank · horizon: 2021-11-14 (≈ 2021-11-14)
  • forecast 2021-11-12: Asked (in his own voice) why he didn't mention the Awesome Socks Club, Hank says it is going very well and he thinks it will sell out within two days, before sales stop Sunday at midnight. (hedged: "I think") — Everything a Normal Person Needs to Know About Helium 00:03:24
  • no report on the channel
• John: the Maternal Center of Excellence is on track to open on schedule (2021) — John · horizon: 2023 (≈ 2023-12-31)
  • forecast 2021-12-21: John hopes the progress at Koidu will be accelerated by the Maternal Center of Excellence opening in 2023. (hedged: "we hope") — NOW I AM THE SCIENCE ONE… 00:02:26
  • → wrong 2026-02-24 (4.2 years later): John says the Paul Farmer Maternal Center of Excellence finally opened at Koidu Government Hospital, radically transforming infant and maternal care in eastern Sierra Leone. — Risk Is a Privilege 00:00:00
• John: the Maternal Center of Excellence will open in 2023 (2021) — John · horizon: 2023 (≈ 2023-12-31)
  • forecast 2021-12-21: John hopes the progress at Koidu will be accelerated by the Maternal Center of Excellence opening in 2023. (hedged: "we hope") — NOW I AM THE SCIENCE ONE… 00:02:26
  • → wrong 2024-01-16 (2.1 years later): John says the maternal and infant care center at Koidu Government Hospital is nearly finished: they are painting it right now. — The Bank of Nerdfighteria 00:00:32
• Hank: the James Webb Space Telescope will let us see deeper than ever before (2021) — Hank · horizon: ever
  • forecast 2021-12-24: Hank says that, quite literally, we are about to see deeper than we ever have before. — 29 Days of Astronomical Terror 00:03:24
  • → came-true 2022-07-15 (203 days later): Hank says the first James Webb Space Telescope images have just arrived, and many people seem to feel small, humbled or insignificant. (hedged: "it seems") — Thoughts From the Universe - Woah 00:00:00
• Hank: Elon Musk will likely back out of his deal to buy Twitter (2022) — Hank · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2022-05-13: The description predicts Musk will likely back out of the deal once shown how hard it is to balance open speech with a platform people don't flee; otherwise he becomes the bogeyman. (hedged: "It seems likely") — What Elon Musk Got Wrong About Twitter video description
  • → wrong 2022-11-11 (182 days later): Hank admits he was totally wrong to expect Musk's audience to turn on him quickly once Twitter, still a business needing users and advertisers, forced him into subjective moderation decisions. — Elon Was Right 00:01:27
• Hank: the US may soon pass a climate bill that measurably reduces emissions on a fairly tight time scale (2022) — Hank · horizon: soon
  • forecast 2022-07-29: The description says Hank made the video because it feels like the US may finally pass a climate bill that measurably reduces emissions on a fairly tight time scale, which would be massive. (hedged: "maybe MAYBE") — How Climate Change /Actually/ Works...in 4 Minutes video description
  • → came-true 2022-08-12 (14 days later): Hank reports the climate bill has passed and projects it to cut US emissions by about a billion tons a year by 2030. — The Biggest Climate Bill of Your Life - But What does it DO!? 00:13:31
• John: the Maternal Center of Excellence's first wards will open in 2024 (2023) — John · horizon: 2024 (≈ 2024-12-31)
  • forecast 2023-05-02: John says the MCOE's first wards will hopefully open next year (2024). (hedged: "hopefully") — GOOD NEWS 00:01:56
  • → wrong 2026-02-20 (2.8 years later): Hank announces that this weekend, during P4A, which was instrumental in building the Paul E. Farmer Maternal Center of Excellence at Koidu Government Hospital, the first baby was born in Sierra Leone's first NICU. — What We Actually Did. 00:03:49
• John: Danaher and Cepheid will eventually respond to the TB test campaign because it will keep escalating (2023) — John · horizon: eventually
  • forecast 2023-09-14: John says they have not heard from Danaher and Cepheid but will eventually, because the campaign will keep escalating. — Talking Tuberculosis, GeneXpert, J&J, and more with MY HEROES 00:39:11
  • → came-true 2023-09-19 (5 days later): John reports that minutes before recording, USAID, the Global Fund and the Stop TB Partnership announced Danaher's standard TB cartridge would fall from $10 to $7.97, not the hoped-for 50% cut but significant. — So, um.... GOOD NEWS?!?!?! 00:00:00
• John: AFC Wimbledon will lose some of its best players in the January 2024 transfer window (2023) — John · horizon: 2024-01 (≈ 2024-01-31)
  • forecast 2023-10-05: John is sure AFC Wimbledon will lose a bunch of its best players in the January transfer window. — America's Second Favorite Fourth Tier English Soccer Team 00:04:29
  • no report on the channel
• Hank: Good Store's holiday stock will sell out before December 8 (2023) — Hank · horizon: 2023-12-08 (≈ 2023-12-08)
  • forecast 2023-12-01: Hank predicts that, on current trends, the Good Store holiday items will probably sell out before December 8. (hedged: "probably") — It's OK if you think less of me after this! 00:05:53
  • no report on the channel
• John: the WHO will soon recommend the new nine-month endTB regimens for MDR-TB (2023) — John · horizon: soon
  • forecast 2023-12-05: John hopes the WHO will soon recommend the new shorter regimens, meaning more people surviving MDR-TB and less MDR-TB in the world. (hedged: "hopefully") — MASSIVE Tuberculosis News 00:02:55
  • → came-true 2024-09-27 (297 days later): John says Partners In Health helped fund the endTB trials, which found shorter, less toxic regimens that cure MDR-TB, and last week (week of 16 September 2024) the WHO adopted them as recommended regimens. — Is It 2010? IT'S A PARTS VIDEO 00:00:13
• Hank: the number of people dying in wars will increase again in 2024 (2024) — Hank · horizon: 2024 (≈ 2024-12-31)
  • forecast 2024-01-05: Hank is fairly certain the number of people dying in wars will increase again in 2024. (hedged: "fairly certain") — I'm Scared of 2024...So Here's 3 Optimistic Thoughts 00:01:03
  • no report on the channel
• Hank: Donald Trump will be on the ballot in the November 2024 presidential election (2024) — Hank · horizon: 2024-11 (≈ 2024-11-30)
  • forecast 2024-01-05: Hank is certain Donald Trump will be on the ballot in November, which puts him way too close to being president again, something absolutely possible. — I'm Scared of 2024...So Here's 3 Optimistic Thoughts 00:01:03
  • → came-true 2024-11-08 (308 days later): In a channel comment Hank clarifies that Trump got way more votes than in 2020 and Harris way fewer than Biden: the swing was decisive and national. — These Maps are Lying (if you let them) creator comment
• Hank: today's tricks for spotting AI-generated images will not work within a year (2024) — Hank · horizon: 2025-01 (≈ 2025-01-31)
  • forecast 2024-01-12: First reason: the models will keep improving, so today's tricks for spotting AI images will not work even a year from now. — How to Detect AI Images (and why it doesn't matter) 00:02:20
  • no report on the channel
• John: keeping up the growth of the brothers' merch-project charity donations will be really challenging (2024) — John · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2024-01-16: John says keeping up that growth in donations will be really challenging, mostly because the company and Nerdfighteria got a ton of media attention last year (2023) for something they do not want to repeat. — The Bank of Nerdfighteria 00:01:16
  • → came-true 2025-11-24 (1.9 years later): John says, as a Reddit post noticed, Good Store donated far more in 2023 than this year (2025) or last; this year (2025) will probably be a little up on last year (2024) but down from 2023. (hedged: "probably") — Good Store Holiday Gift Guide LIVE with Hank and John 00:11:51
• John: the Maternal Center of Excellence will fully open in 2025 (2024) — John · horizon: 2025 (≈ 2025-12-31)
  • forecast 2024-06-18: John says the hospital will not fully open until next year (2025). — The Tea 00:01:27
  • → wrong 2026-02-20 (1.7 years later): Hank announces that this weekend, during P4A, which was instrumental in building the Paul E. Farmer Maternal Center of Excellence at Koidu Government Hospital, the first baby was born in Sierra Leone's first NICU. — What We Actually Did. 00:03:49
• Hank: media will soon be flipped over again by autonomous AI agents that create on their own (2024) — Hank · horizon: soon
  • forecast 2024-11-01: Hank says media has already been completely flipped over and is about to be flipped over again by autonomous agents that can create on their own. — Working Through a Crisis with My Brother 00:05:07
  • → came-true 2025-10-06 (339 days later): With content now able to make itself, Hank wonders what keeps the decentralized web alive and says the web is becoming a ghost town, visited to remember how life used to be shaped (Homestar Runner, Delicious, Fark.com). — The Web is Going to Die 00:03:54
• Hank: the Trump administration will want to do weird and wild things over the next four years that people will need to push back against (2024) — Hank · horizon: 2028 (≈ 2028-12-31)
  • forecast 2024-11-08: Hank thinks over the next four years people will need energy to push back against the weirdest and wildest things the Trump administration will want to do. — These Maps are Lying (if you let them) 00:05:01
  • → came-true 2025-04-11 (said on 2025-04-10, implied) (153 days later): Hank says Trump-era news is too much to keep track of, so he sorts the weird parts of the Liberation Day tariff story into a YouTube tier list by level of crazy. — How Actually Crazy is This Mess? 00:00:00
• John: AFC Wimbledon will be promoted from League Two in the 2024-25 season (2025) — John · horizon: 2025-05 (≈ 2025-05-31)
  • forecast 2025-01-14: John, admitting he has never seen him play, truly believes Marcus Browne will help AFC Wimbledon get promoted this season. — So I Bought My Team a Pro Football Player 00:03:24
  • no report on the channel; later on the channel 2025-04-22: John says new central attacking midfielder Marcus Browne, signed with money from John's FIFA stream, makes the team look dangerous. — The Unimportant Things 00:03:23
• Hank: USAID funding may stay interrupted for a long time (2025) — Hank · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2025-02-14: Hank says USAID's funding may stay interrupted for a long time. (hedged: "may") — Let's Do a Good 00:00:16
  • → came-true 2025-10-28 (256 days later): John says USAID abandoned its commitment to fund part of the project, but PIH, Sarah and John stayed committed because the Philippine government did. — Elon Cancelled This...Let's Do it Anyway 00:01:27
• John: the Maternal Center of Excellence will complete construction in October 2025 and begin opening to patients in January 2026 (2025) — John · horizon: 2026-01 (≈ 2026-01-31)
  • forecast 2025-05-13: John announces that the long-dreamed-of Maternal Center of Excellence will complete construction in October and, after intensive training and protocol refinement, begin opening to patients in January. — I Have the BEST News 00:02:59
  • → came-true 2026-02-24 (287 days later): John says the Paul Farmer Maternal Center of Excellence finally opened at Koidu Government Hospital, radically transforming infant and maternal care in eastern Sierra Leone. — Risk Is a Privilege 00:00:00
• John: the Maternal Center of Excellence will radically reduce maternal and infant mortality in Kono and beyond (2022) — John · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2025-05-13: John says the MCOE will care for thousands or tens of thousands of people a year and radically reduce maternal and infant mortality in Kono and beyond. — I Have the BEST News 00:04:32
  • → came-true 2026-04-28 (350 days later): John says 500 babies were born at the MCOE in its first six weeks of operation, including over 200 C-sections, many of them emergencies that might otherwise have meant maternal and child death. — What I Can't Show You 00:05:37
• John: neither brother will win their Quadragocon 2025 chess game because neither can checkmate (2025) — John · horizon: not stated
  • forecast 2025-08-05: John predicts neither brother will win their chess game because neither can checkmate the other. (playful) — ONE TAKE JOHNNY 00:06:38
  • → came-true 2025-09-19 (45 days later): The chess game ends without checkmate: one brother is disqualified for an illegal bishop move and they agree to call it a draw. (playful) — Let's Just Be Stupid For a Moment 00:05:37
• John: Hank's next project will start with a Z, and soon (2025) — John · horizon: soon
  • forecast 2025-12-09: John tells Hank his next project had better start with a Z, and predicts that, knowing Hank, it will, and soon. (playful) — Hank Green, from A to Z 00:05:50
  • → came-true 2025-12-12 (3 days later): Hank tells John the project came together quickly because John's A to Z of Hank projects had no Z, so it was a good time to push out an idea he had long had in mind. — The Economics of a YouTube White Noise Video 00:03:53
• John: the P4A 2026 total will reach $2 million on the night of February 13 or early February 14, 2026 (2026) — John · horizon: 2026-02-14 (≈ 2026-02-14)
  • forecast 2026-02-13: John says the 2026 Project for Awesome could reach $2 million that night or early the next morning. (hedged: "potentially") — Project for Awesome 2026 Kickoff! 08:07:18
  • → came-true 2026-02-14 (1 day later): John's forecast comes true: the 2026 Project for Awesome passes $2 million on February 14, 2026. — Project for Awesome 2026 part 3! 00:23:54
• Hank: the P4A 2026 Tiltify will reach $1 million (2026) — Hank · horizon: 2026-02-14 (≈ 2026-02-14)
  • forecast 2026-02-14: Taking over at $800,000, Hank says he is confident the 2026 Project for Awesome will hit a million dollars raised at the Tiltify. — Project for Awesome 2026 part 3! 02:13:16
  • → came-true 2026-02-14 (same day): Hank's forecast comes true: the 2026 Project for Awesome Tiltify passes $1 million on 14 February 2026. — Project for Awesome 2026 part 4! 02:11:14
• John: the P4A 2026 total will catch up with P4A 2025's if donations keep their pace (2026) — John · horizon: 2026-02-15 (≈ 2026-02-15)
  • forecast 2026-02-14: John says the 2026 Project for Awesome is just ahead of 2024 and just behind 2025 but has more matching funds, and he is confident it can catch up with 2025 if donations keep their pace. — Project for Awesome 2026 part 4! 00:09:27
  • → came-true 2026-02-15 (1 day later): John's forecast comes true: on 15 February 2026 the 2026 Project for Awesome passes P4A 2025 to become the biggest ever. — Project for Awesome 2026 part 5! 03:57:19
• Hank: the P4A 2026 Tiltify will reach its $1,207,000 goal during his evening shift (2026) — Hank · horizon: 2026-02-14 (≈ 2026-02-14)
  • forecast 2026-02-14: Hank has no doubt the Tiltify will reach the night's goal of $1,207,000, where the community-voting organizations' matching funds max out, during his shift, and thinks it should far exceed it. — Project for Awesome 2026 part 4! 05:00:49
  • → came-true 2026-02-14 (same video): Hank's forecast comes true: the 2026 Project for Awesome Tiltify passes its $1,207,000 goal during his evening shift. — Project for Awesome 2026 part 4! 06:29:13