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Sincerity & confidence

Which statements the brothers actually stand behind, which are hedged, and which are bits. Every statement in this wiki is tagged with a mode (is it meant literally?) and a certainty (how sure does the speaker sound?), with the hedge words quoted. Only sincere statements feed the opinion timelines; everything else is a performance, a joke or someone else's voice.

What changes over time

  • The share of sincere statements rises: John 50% in 2007 → 91% in 2026; Hank 59% → 91%.
  • Hedging is steadier. Over 2007–2026, 9% of John's sincere statements are hedged or unsure, and 13% of Hank's.
  • "Hedged" is not the same as doubt. Of John's hedged sincere statements, 24% are opinion markers ("I think"), 8% wishes and 44% real doubt; Hank: 25% / 4% / 51%; the rest are other hedges ("may", "I don't know") or have no hedge words recorded (derived from the hedge words; see Hedge types).
  • 42 videos are performed in character (satire, parody, fiction read aloud) and 78 more are mostly playful; see Videos performed in character.

By year and brother

Sincere / playful / other bits = share of that brother's statements in the year. Hedged = share of his sincere statements that carry a hedge or say they are unsure. Each year links to its hedged statements and bits.

year John: statements sincere playful other bits hedged Hank: statements sincere playful other bits hedged other voices
2007 1270 50% 45% 5% 19% 1241 59% 38% 3% 21% 90
2008 756 68% 28% 4% 12% 635 72% 25% 3% 14% 47
2009 1065 70% 28% 3% 12% 890 62% 33% 4% 16% 31
2010 995 70% 28% 1% 10% 966 74% 24% 2% 13% 85
2011 1112 77% 19% 4% 6% 1175 83% 15% 2% 9% 42
2012 781 77% 21% 2% 9% 730 81% 18% 2% 15% 44
2013 764 82% 17% 1% 12% 765 85% 15% 0% 16% 167
2014 957 84% 15% 1% 15% 820 84% 15% 1% 14% 94
2015 1000 82% 18% 1% 13% 858 87% 11% 1% 18% 50
2016 1108 89% 10% 1% 12% 932 90% 10% 1% 17% 173
2017 1167 88% 11% 1% 17% 1029 88% 10% 1% 20% 70
2018 1041 84% 16% 1% 18% 1080 89% 11% 1% 22% 93
2019 1041 93% 7% 0% 6% 1075 87% 11% 2% 8% 58
2020 1141 91% 9% 0% 5% 1006 90% 9% 0% 9% 45
2021 1027 87% 12% 1% 5% 1036 89% 10% 1% 10% 25
2022 1016 85% 14% 1% 5% 952 91% 9% 1% 8% 51
2023 1312 90% 10% 1% 5% 1279 89% 11% 0% 10% 73
2024 1206 91% 9% 0% 6% 1648 89% 10% 1% 9% 179
2025 1182 89% 11% 0% 5% 1523 91% 9% 0% 10% 130
2026 1566 91% 9% 1% 7% 1655 91% 8% 1% 9% 57

Modes

mode meaning John Hank other voices
sincere meant literally — the only mode the wiki treats as a position or a fact 17697 17935 1236
playful a real point made in a joking way; the paraphrase records the meant core 3516 3069 283
satire a mock position (e.g. a fake moral panic) — the opposite of what is meant 16 41 5
parody imitating a genre or a person (mock documentary, mock critic) 8 10 1
fiction a story or novel read aloud; the words belong to characters 32 47 56
joke a gag; not a claim 199 155 21
hypothetical a thought experiment or "what if" 39 38 2

Hedge types

Hedged mixes three different things: an opinion marker ("I think" — the speaker stands behind it), a wish ("hopefully") and real doubt ("maybe"). The type is derived in code from the quoted hedge words with the fixed word list below (whole words, lower-cased; one extra word is allowed between "I" and the verb, so "I really think" and "I don't think" count as "I think"). If the hedge contains a doubt word it is doubt, even inside an opinion marker ("I think maybe"); otherwise a wish word makes it a wish; otherwise an opinion marker makes it an opinion; anything else ("may", "like", "could") is other.

type (derived) meaning word list
epistemic doubt real uncertainty about whether it is true "maybe", "probably", "might", "perhaps", "I guess", "I'm not sure", "kind of", "sort of", "seems", "apparently", "possibly", "may", "I don't know", "could", "likely", "I suspect", "I assume", "pretty sure", "almost certainly", "I imagine", "presumably"
wish / hope a wish about the future, not a claim about what is true "hopefully", "I hope", "I wish"
opinion marker marks a view as the speaker's own; not doubt "I think", "I believe", "I feel like", "in my opinion", "I'd say"
other hedge a hedge that matches none of the lists —
hedge words not recorded tagged as unsure, but no hedge words were quoted — listed in full —

Counts of sincere statements that are not plain assertions, by derived hedge type (opinion / wish / doubt / other / not recorded). Each year links to the statements, grouped by type.

year John: opinion wish doubt other not recorded Hank: opinion wish doubt other not recorded
2007 50 13 39 20 1 64 8 55 23 4
2008 23 7 23 10 0 36 9 13 7 0
2009 33 8 24 20 6 30 9 31 17 0
2010 22 3 21 15 6 39 5 40 8 0
2011 24 4 4 16 0 47 6 7 25 1
2012 24 6 19 5 3 41 1 31 12 1
2013 28 5 24 13 3 60 1 25 19 1
2014 49 10 42 19 2 40 6 33 15 2
2015 54 12 30 10 2 56 5 45 22 4
2016 42 11 44 19 3 58 2 58 18 4
2017 84 6 40 35 7 64 7 64 38 8
2018 49 2 58 33 12 93 4 72 23 17
2019 39 4 3 7 6 52 3 8 6 7
2020 32 3 2 6 13 43 1 9 16 9
2021 18 6 3 7 7 50 2 12 15 12
2022 30 3 1 10 3 42 1 8 9 11
2023 26 7 2 12 6 72 3 12 15 9
2024 31 8 6 11 9 86 1 12 15 14
2025 24 3 3 14 6 97 5 12 17 10
2026 43 5 15 19 14 78 2 22 22 15
2007–2026 725 126 403 301 109 1148 81 569 342 129

All statements that are not plain assertions (any mode, any speaker), by derived hedge type:

type (derived) John Hank other voices total
epistemic doubt 900 1358 46 2304
wish / hope 134 92 7 233
opinion marker 494 656 64 1214
other hedge 354 380 20 754
hedge words not recorded 130 162 7 299

How they hedge

The hedge words each brother uses most, as said (lower-cased), with the derived hedge type.

John type times Hank type times
i think opinion marker 342 i think opinion marker 481
probably epistemic doubt 209 probably epistemic doubt 288
maybe epistemic doubt 136 maybe epistemic doubt 263
hopefully wish / hope 78 might epistemic doubt 94
might epistemic doubt 68 hopefully wish / hope 55
i don't think opinion marker 50 kind of epistemic doubt 52
kind of epistemic doubt 44 i feel like opinion marker 48
i guess epistemic doubt 36 i don't think opinion marker 34
i hope wish / hope 36 apparently epistemic doubt 34
may epistemic doubt 24 i guess epistemic doubt 33
i feel like opinion marker 21 i hope wish / hope 31
perhaps epistemic doubt 19 may epistemic doubt 31
like other hedge 19 possibly epistemic doubt 29
possibly epistemic doubt 18 it seems like epistemic doubt 29
it seems to me epistemic doubt 18 like other hedge 29

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