Hank: AI is probably an economic bubble (2025)
prediction · status: due 2026; outcome not yet known · last event: repeated (2025-12-19) · owner: Hank
In October 2025 Hank said AI is probably an economic bubble; in December 2025 he said 2026 might bring the bubble's popping, taking a substantial part of the economy down with it.
Told alongside: Hank: AI will do a lot of damage to Trump's coalition of populists and billionaires in 2026 (2025)
About: artificial intelligence, Economic bubble
| date | event | what | video |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-17 | predicted | Hank says AI is going to be economically weird and is probably a bubble. (hedged) | We Never Know What Anything Means 00:02:50 |
| 2025-12-19 | repeated | Hank says 2026 might bring the popping of the AI bubble, taking a substantial part of the economy down with it. (hedged) | My Big 2026 Prediction is...Not Fun 00:03:54 |
What is said about it
10 statements, by date (the events above are the turns of the thread; these are the details).
- 2025-12-19 · My Big 2026 Prediction is...Not Fun — Hank's alternative: the bubble doesn't pop because AI really is worth tens of trillions and successfully eats many jobs, a future that would also make the coalition hard to hold together. (hedged) — 00:05:22
- 2025-12-19 · My Big 2026 Prediction is...Not Fun — Hank says so much value has been put into AI that if the bubble pops the consequences will be felt. — 00:07:02
- 2025-10-17 · We Never Know What Anything Means — Hank says AI will be bad for apprenticeship: entry-level jobs for people leaving school are now done by computers, and companies will try them out to save money whether or not they are good at it. — 00:02:55
- 2025-10-17 · We Never Know What Anything Means — Hank thinks AI's most impactful effects will be things nobody has any idea of now: beyond five years everything is up in the air, and beyond ten the dominant forces will be unthought of. — 00:03:10
- 2025-10-17 · We Never Know What Anything Means — Hank says that, like the telegraph, AI will be a very big deal with impacts much weirder than we think. — 00:03:33
- 2025-10-17 · We Never Know What Anything Means — Hank: Admitting his bias, Hank says we need to worry whether AI will continue us down the path of losing trust in each other and faith in humanity. — 00:03:40
- 2025-10-17 · We Never Know What Anything Means — Hank says the recommendation algorithms of YouTube, TikTok, Threads and Twitter already erode trust without wanting to: told to keep people on websites, they made us hate each other more, fraying society. — 00:03:50
- 2025-12-19 · My Big 2026 Prediction is...Not Fun — Hank says that if the bubble pops the government should probably intervene, and the oligarchy side of Trump's coalition will want him to stop a crash. (hedged) — 00:04:23
- 2025-12-19 · My Big 2026 Prediction is...Not Fun — Hank says giving taxpayer money to billionaires who bet the whole economy on technological determinism would be hard to do from a populist base. (hedged) — 00:04:23
- 2025-12-19 · My Big 2026 Prediction is...Not Fun — Hank says the discourse side of the coalition has no reason to like AI: average people dislike a job-eating box that enriches billionaires and raises power bills, even if it supplies fake videos on Instagram Reels. — 00:04:53