Hank: COVID will become less of a big deal (2021)

prediction · status: unresolved · last event: predicted (2021-03-26) · owner: Hank

In March 2021 Hank said he hoped COVID would become less of a big deal, leaving people to decide for themselves which behaviors were okay.

date	event	what	video
2021-03-26	predicted	Hank hopes we will transition to COVID being less of a big deal, deciding for ourselves what is OK, and asks how far we will decide for others too. (hedged)	Why I'm Worried about 2021 00:01:27

What is said about it

6 statements, by date (the events above are the turns of the thread; these are the details).

2021-03-26 · Why I'm Worried about 2021 — Hank: A society has an acceptable disease burden: in the US something like 30,000 people die of flu each year, some of them infants and children, yet beyond vaccines and hygiene advice life went on as before. (hedged) — 00:01:56
2021-03-26 · Why I'm Worried about 2021 — Hank: Whether carrying on as before with flu was right, Hank doesn't know, but we acted as if it was. (unsure) — 00:01:56
2021-03-26 · Why I'm Worried about 2021 — Hank: Every person's decisions matter: careful and less careful people average out, and with vaccine efficacy that yields the total disease burden. — 00:01:56
2021-03-26 · Why I'm Worried about 2021 — Hank: More careful people, and those able to be, will help the less careful, whether they can't be, don't want to be, or have bought into a different version of reality. — 00:02:26
2021-03-26 · Why I'm Worried about 2021 — Hank: People will understand risk, citizenship and societal impact differently, and behavior change will matter less as vaccines matter more, as long as nothing goes terribly wrong. (hedged) — 00:02:26
2021-03-26 · Why I'm Worried about 2021 — announcement: Hank's advice and plan is to keep taking precautions: he will keep wearing a mask at the grocery store once fully vaccinated, since he could still spread the disease. — 00:02:26