Hank: Elon Musk will likely back out of his deal to buy Twitter (2022)
prediction · status: proved wrong · last event: proved wrong (2022-11-11) · owner: Hank
In May 2022 Hank predicted that Elon Musk would likely back out of his deal to buy Twitter once shown how hard it is to balance open speech with a platform people do not flee.
About: Elon Musk, Twitter
| date | event | what | video |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-13 | predicted | The description predicts Musk will likely back out of the deal once shown how hard it is to balance open speech with a platform people don't flee; otherwise he becomes the bogeyman. (hedged) | What Elon Musk Got Wrong About Twitter video description |
| 2022-11-11 | proved wrong | Hank admits he was totally wrong to expect Musk's audience to turn on him quickly once Twitter, still a business needing users and advertisers, forced him into subjective moderation decisions. | Elon Was Right 00:01:27 |
What is said about it
10 statements, by date (the events above are the turns of the thread; these are the details).
- 2022-11-11 · Elon Was Right — Hank recalls arguing months ago that Musk misunderstood content moderation, which, as Nilay Patel says, is a social platform's main product; he thinks he was right about that. — 00:00:00
- 2022-11-11 · Elon Was Right — The description says Musk wasn't abused, just scrutinised like any powerful person, which is probably hard; making himself even more powerful seems a bad choice. — video description
- 2022-05-13 · What Elon Musk Got Wrong About Twitter — Hank: Not long after the poll, Musk announced an agreement to buy Twitter. — 00:00:30
- 2022-05-13 · What Elon Musk Got Wrong About Twitter — Hank says a concern has borne out: Musk sees Twitter through the atypical lens of a billionaire with 80 million followers. — 00:00:30
- 2022-05-13 · What Elon Musk Got Wrong About Twitter — Hank cites a well-known effect: where harassment runs unchecked, many people leave, which empowers harassers. — 00:00:30
- 2022-11-11 · Elon Was Right — Hank says Musk need not change Twitter's moderation policies to satisfy his audience, because it is about vibes, not policy: not the decisions but who makes them. — 00:01:56
- 2022-11-11 · Elon Was Right — Hank says Musk has so far changed no policies, even those he most objected to, though Hank wouldn't put it past him, and his audience seems unconcerned. — 00:01:56
- 2022-11-11 · Elon Was Right — Hank says this creates the opposite problem: Musk and his audience feel empowered and happy, while everyone else, many of whom will never be Musk fans, is unhappy or concerned. — 00:01:56
- 2022-11-11 · Elon Was Right — Hank says Twitter's previous management, for all its failures, tried to listen and make thoughtful, transparent decisions, while Musk is gleefully antagonistic to people who disagree. — 00:02:26
- 2022-11-11 · Elon Was Right — Hank says that if those people leave, Twitter becomes an $8-a-month subscription to the Elon Musk fan club, which is not a good website. (hypothetical) — 00:02:26