John: Mubarak will have to step down, and then Egypt's hard work begins (2011)
prediction · status: came true · last event: came true (2013-07-05) · owner: John
In his January 2011 introduction to the revolution in Egypt, John said it looked like Hosni Mubarak would have to make a graceful exit, and that the hard work would begin then. No later video revisits the forecast.
About: Hosni Mubarak, Egypt
| date | event | what | video |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-01-31 | predicted | John predicts Mubarak will probably have to make a graceful exit, after which the hard work will begin. (hedged) | Revolution in Egypt: A 4-Minute Introduction 00:02:50 |
| 2013-07-05 | came true | Hank says the internet ended Mubarak's 30 years of censorship; Arab Spring youth protested, the Brotherhood followed, the military declined to help, and Mubarak stepped down. | Egypt....Explained! 00:02:52 |
What is said about it
9 statements, by date (the events above are the turns of the thread; these are the details).
- 2011-01-31 · Revolution in Egypt: A 4-Minute Introduction — John introduces Hosni Mubarak as the 82-year-old dictator of Egypt, whose 30-year rule is in peril. — 00:00:11
- 2011-01-31 · Revolution in Egypt: A 4-Minute Introduction — John: In 1981 Islamists assassinated Sadat; his vice president Mubarak was shot in the hand but survived and became president. — 00:00:45
- 2011-01-31 · Revolution in Egypt: A 4-Minute Introduction — John: Mubarak has since survived five more assassination attempts, which John says has made him very paranoid. — 00:00:57
- 2011-01-31 · Revolution in Egypt: A 4-Minute Introduction — John sums up Mubarak's politics as: he should stay president; no press freedom and no Islamist, or really any, political parties; and opponents go to jail. (playful) — 00:01:06
- 2011-01-31 · Revolution in Egypt: A 4-Minute Introduction — John: Everybody, in the Arab world and the West, has been kind of friends with Mubarak, on the view that he could be worse. — 00:01:48
- 2011-01-31 · Revolution in Egypt: A 4-Minute Introduction — John: Mubarak used typical old-fashioned dictator tactics, turning off the phones and the internet, but none of it really worked. — 00:02:25
- 2011-01-31 · Revolution in Egypt: A 4-Minute Introduction — John: Mubarak's last card, sending the army into Cairo, backfired: all Egyptian men serve in the army, so it is seen as part of the citizenry, and protesters climb tanks and shake soldiers' hands. — 00:02:33
- 2013-07-05 · Egypt....Explained! — Hank calls Hosni Mubarak, by 2010 really a military dictator, terrible: head of a kleptocracy extracting resources for himself and his cronies, who jailed Brotherhood members. (hedged) — 00:02:18
- 2013-07-05 · Egypt....Explained! — Hank says Mubarak's Europe-educated son returned with a banking degree wanting to overhaul military control of the economy, so the regime angered the Brotherhood, the youth and the military. — 00:02:33