John: shingles may no longer exist within a generation or two because of the vaccine (2026)
prediction · status: unresolved · last event: repeated (2026-03-20) · owner: John
In March 2026 John said shingles may no longer exist within a generation or two because it is now vaccine preventable. A few days later Hank wrote that he is happy to be in the last generation for whom chickenpox and shingles will be normal.
Told alongside: Hank gets shingles (2022)
About: Shingles, Zoster vaccine
| date | event | what | video |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | predicted | John says shingles, famously painful, may no longer exist within a generation or two because it is now vaccine preventable. (hedged) | Tuberculosis and Hank's Shingles 00:00:58 |
| 2026-03-20 | repeated | The description says Hank is happy to be in the last generation for whom chickenpox and shingles will be normal. | I'm Sick Because of the Social Structures of Early Hominins video description |
What is said about it
6 statements, by date (the events above are the turns of the thread; these are the details).
- 2026-03-17 · Tuberculosis and Hank's Shingles — John says GSK several years ago had two promising vaccine candidates, for shingles and for tuberculosis, that shared an adjuvant, so it could really pursue only one. — 00:01:27
- 2026-03-17 · Tuberculosis and Hank's Shingles — John says GSK chose shingles though tuberculosis causes more death, because shingles is a bigger problem in rich countries and TB mostly in poor ones, so the shingles market was much bigger. — 00:01:56
- 2026-03-17 · Tuberculosis and Hank's Shingles — John says the shingles vaccine has been a huge hit, generating over 14 billion dollars for GSK. — 00:01:56
- 2026-03-17 · Tuberculosis and Hank's Shingles — John says shingles is terrible, he is very glad a vaccine now prevents it, and GSK did a great job creating it. — 00:02:26
- 2026-03-17 · Tuberculosis and Hank's Shingles — John says pursuing the shingles vaccine left the TB vaccine much further behind; in the years we might have had one, many millions of people have died. — 00:02:26
- 2026-03-17 · Tuberculosis and Hank's Shingles — recommendation: John points to a fascinating article, linked in the doobly-doo, on the relationship between the shingles vaccine and the tuberculosis vaccine. — 00:02:26