John: US labor force participation will keep declining as the population ages (2017)
prediction · status: unresolved · last event: predicted (2017-01-10) · owner: John
In January 2017, explaining the real unemployment rate, John predicted that US labor force participation will keep declining as the population ages, whatever the economy does.
About: Labor force participation rate, Population ageing
| date | event | what | video |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-01-10 | predicted | John says the participation rate will keep declining as the population ages, whether the economy is good or bad. | What Is the Real Unemployment Rate? 00:01:56 |
What is said about it
6 statements, by date (the events above are the turns of the thread; these are the details).
- 2017-01-10 · What Is the Real Unemployment Rate? — John says the 38% figure refers to the labor force participation rate, the share of Americans over 18 working or looking for work, which fell over 20 years from over 67% to under 63%. (slip of the tongue: 18) — 00:00:36
- 2017-01-10 · What Is the Real Unemployment Rate? — John says by far the biggest reason for the decline is that Americans are getting older, so a higher share have retired. — 00:00:52
- 2017-01-10 · What Is the Real Unemployment Rate? — John says even for people aged 25 to 54, participation has fallen about 1.5% since the Great Recession and about 3.5% since its late-1990s height. — 00:01:00
- 2017-01-10 · What Is the Real Unemployment Rate? — John says some of the decline is probably due to lack of job opportunities: people retiring early after losing a job, or students who could be tempted into work. (hedged) — 00:01:30
- 2017-01-10 · What Is the Real Unemployment Rate? — John says smart people disagree how much of the decline is due to the economy, but on its own the statistic says little about unemployment. — 00:01:46
- 2017-01-10 · What Is the Real Unemployment Rate? — John says calling 38% the real rate implies unemployment was 41% in 1967 and never lower than 33%, in 2000. — 00:02:02