John: US spending cuts will probably bring a 30% rise in drug-resistant TB within a couple of years (2025)
prediction · status: due 2027; outcome not yet known · last event: repeated (2025-04-15) · owner: John
In March 2025 John predicted, citing one estimate, that US spending cuts would bring a 30% rise in drug-resistant tuberculosis within a couple of years. In April he restated it, pointing to hundreds of thousands of interrupted treatments.
Told alongside: John: overall human health will get worse as the US and other countries cut health investment (2025)
About: Federal government of the United States, multidrug-resistant tuberculosis
| date | event | what | video |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-18 | predicted | John says US government spending cuts mean, by one estimate, a probable 30% increase in drug-resistant tuberculosis in the next couple of years. (hedged) | ITS ALL HAPPENING 00:03:20 |
| 2025-04-15 | repeated | John says the world could easily return there: hundreds of thousands are having TB treatment interrupted, which will cause skyrocketing drug-resistant TB, terrifying everywhere. | Chatting with ... a U.S. Senator? 00:13:38 |
What is said about it
8 statements, by date (the events above are the turns of the thread; these are the details).
- 2025-04-15 · Chatting with ... a U.S. Senator? — Adam Schiff: Schiff recalls a young USAID worker in Afghanistan who re-signed for a second year because development work's results cannot be seen in one year. — 00:14:08
- 2025-04-15 · Chatting with ... a U.S. Senator? — Adam Schiff: Schiff says USAID fights disease and builds water systems, and people never forget a country that helped them, making it among the most effective diplomacy: an unmitigated good. — 00:15:22
- 2025-04-15 · Chatting with ... a U.S. Senator? — Adam Schiff: Schiff says seeing USAID disparaged as waste and its devoted staff dismissed by email is destructive and heartbreaking. — 00:15:51
- 2025-04-15 · Chatting with ... a U.S. Senator? — John cites an estimate that within two years, without restored funding, TB deaths will rise from 1.25 million to 2 million, up 750,000; TB is the deadliest infectious disease. (hedged) — 00:15:51
- 2025-04-15 · Chatting with ... a U.S. Senator? — John says the problem is also the chaotic way funding stopped: a sudden total freeze with no warning let no country fill gaps, so TB and HIV treatment was massively discontinued. — 00:16:21
- 2025-04-15 · Chatting with ... a U.S. Senator? — John says it will be hard to regain the trust of people abandoned by the US government; unlike development's slow benefits, the harm will show quickly. — 00:16:50
- 2025-04-15 · Chatting with ... a U.S. Senator? — Adam Schiff: Schiff says some harms are permanent: someone who gets TB because of US absence suffers an injury that can be treated but never undone, as with damaged relationships. — 00:17:37
- 2025-04-15 · Chatting with ... a U.S. Senator? — Adam Schiff: Schiff is confident USAID will be fully back, but says the world will always wonder whether the US is one election away from withdrawing support again. — 00:18:10