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Bill Gates and John Green Discuss Agriculture

2014-09-22 · collab / interview · John, Bill Gates · 3:43 · watch on YouTube

Topic: Global development (also: Economics) · mode: Q&A & conversation · tags: guest or collab, recurring series, fundraising ask, heavy topic

In a bonus conversation, Bill Gates tells John that better seeds, fertilizer, advice, credit and insurance could triple African farm productivity despite market failures, and that, climate change apart, poor farmers' prospects are mostly a positive story.

What is said

The parts of the video and what is said in each (★ — how much it matters to the video).

00:00:00 — Gates on helping poor farmers: poor seeds, no fertilizer, little advice; tripling African productivity; crop research and reaching the poorest

  • ★★ Bill Gates: Gates says helping farmers grow a lot more is a fantastic thing. — 00:00:02
  • ★★ Bill Gates: Gates says most of these farmers lack very good seeds, can't afford fertilizer, and get little advice about what to grow and how. — 00:00:06
  • ★★★ Bill Gates: Gates says the upside for African agriculture is that productivity could triple. — 00:00:14
  • ★★ Bill Gates: Gates says his foundation's dream is to raise that productivity with pretty modest amounts of money. — 00:00:19
  • ★★★ Bill Gates: Gates says the foundation funds crop research for better seeds, but reaching the poorest farmers is hard: carelessly, wealthy farmers near cities become the main beneficiaries. — 00:00:27
  • ★★ Bill Gates: Gates says they ask farmers how much of their output they must eat themselves, and whether in bad years they eat all of it or still lack enough. — 00:00:43

00:00:56 — Agriculture as a weird, distorted market (US crop insurance, political farmers) and its market failures: storage and credit

  • ★★★ John says agriculture is a weird market: capitalist, yet the US gives what amounts to direct assistance through crop insurance; like health, it is kind of a market and kind of not. — 00:00:56 · capitalism, United States
  • ★★★ Bill Gates: Gates agrees: because people need enough food and farmers are politically influential, prices are very distorted even in rich countries where farming employs only 2% of people. — 00:01:12
  • ★★★ Bill Gates: Gates says distortion is greater in poor countries because of true market failures, such as who will build storage or provide credit. — 00:01:25

00:01:31 — Credit for farmers: banks avoid correlated weather risk; hybrid seed's payoff and the debt of a failed season

  • ★★ John notes credit becomes impossible if a farmer didn't earn enough last year (2013) or spent it all, and asks whether the cooperative aims to even out capital for each season. — 00:01:31
  • ★★★ Bill Gates: Gates calls it a huge market failure that banks won't take the credit risk they should, since a drought year could literally bankrupt a bank. — 00:01:45
  • ★★★ Bill Gates: Gates says farm lending is correlated, not uncorrelated, risk: all borrowers' credit is what they grow, so bad weather could leave every one unable to repay. — 00:01:58
  • ★★★ Bill Gates: Gates says buying hybrid seed instead of using leftover seed pays off hugely, but takes getting used to: doing it in a year without rain can leave a debt never repaid. — 00:02:10

00:02:32 — Insulating farmers against risk: Mexico's weather-adjusted cash support, micro-insurance and phones

  • ★★★ Bill Gates: Asked whether foundations can insulate farmers against that risk, Gates says Mexico's government gives cash support adjusted to the weather; done well, government can play a crop-insurance-type role. — 00:02:38
  • ★★ Bill Gates: Gates points to micro-insurance and cell phones: learning what price to get, getting advice, even photographing plants to learn what is wrong with them. — 00:02:58

00:03:09 — Climate change as the only factor against farmers; mostly a positive story

  • ★★★ Bill Gates: Gates says climate change is the only thing working against these farmers; every other factor (output, self-sufficiency, storage, amazing seeds, advanced techniques) favours them. — 00:03:09 · climate change
  • ★★★ Bill Gates: Gates concludes that, mostly, poor farmers' prospects are a positive story. — 00:03:28

In the description and comments

  • ★★★ The description says that if viewers raise $100,000 through Water.org to get clean water to people in Ethiopia, Bill Gates will match it with another $100,000. — video description
  • ★ The description calls the video a special bonus video. — video description

Threads in this video

Where the stories that moved here went next

Mentioned

Central: agricultural economics · climate change · correlated risk · crop yield · hybrid seed · market failure

Also: Organizations: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation · Government of Mexico

Concepts: agricultural cooperative · capitalism · crop insurance · drought · fertilizer · microinsurance

Places: Africa · United States

Taking part: Bill Gates

Only in the description or credits: Ethiopia · Water.org

Also centred on agricultural economics: Food Is Weird: Understanding Agriculture in the Developing World

Also centred on crop yield: Food Is Weird: Understanding Agriculture in the Developing World

Also centred on market failure: I OWN WARNER CHILCOTT!

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