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This is the scariest graph I've ever seen

2018-10-19 · explainer · Hank · 3:41 · watch on YouTube

Topic: Science & nature · mode: Explainer · tags: self promotion, heavy topic

Using an ice cube that stays frozen in a warm room, Hank explains the 'scariest graph' he has seen, of sea level rise commitment: today's warming already commits us to more than a meter of long-term sea level rise, and the worst-case path to 2100 to six meters; humans solve problems well, but only ones they recognize.

What is said

The parts of the video and what is said in each (★ — how much it matters to the video).

00:00:00 — The ice cube that stays frozen at 70 degrees; the scariest graph; usual sea level rise graphs and the cost of a meter by 2100

  • ★★ An ice cube above 32 degrees Fahrenheit becomes liquid, yet in Hank's roughly 70-degree room the ice cube is still ice. — 00:00:13
  • ★★★ Hank introduces the scariest graph he has ever seen, published in a 2016 paper by a friend of his: not the usual graph of sea level rise. — 00:00:24
  • ★★★ Usual graphs show how much sea level is expected to rise by a future date, and the news is bad: a full meter by 2100 would cost around 14 trillion dollars a year. — 00:00:36

00:00:48 — Global mean sea level vs sea level rise commitment under IPCC scenarios; delays in melting; long-term commitment; humans solve recognized problems

  • ★★ For comparison, all student loans outstanding in the US total about 1.5 trillion dollars. — 00:00:48
  • ★★ Those graphs show global mean sea level (GMSL), where the sea will be in 2100, under various IPCC scenarios. — 00:00:54
  • ★★ RCP 2.6 is the best case, where everyone works hard and fast together to keep Earth's total warming to no more than 2 degrees Celsius. — 00:01:03
  • ★★★ RCP 8.5 is basically the scenario in which we do nothing, and we are closer to it than to RCP 2.6. (hedged) — 00:01:17
  • ★★★ On the scary graph GMSL is a tiny grey blip; the big bars are sea level rise commitment (SLRC): not where the sea will be, but the rise we will have signed up for. — 00:01:30
  • ★★★ Sea level does not jump to its level for a given temperature: ice takes time to melt and heat takes time to move around. — 00:01:56
  • ★★★ On the worst-case path to 2100 the sea rises one meter, but we will have signed up for six meters of sea level rise. — 00:02:09
  • ★★★ Even with the warming already seen today, we have long-term already signed up for more than a meter of sea level rise. — 00:02:17
  • ★★ Admitting this is long-term thinking and no model is perfect, Hank says that if CO2 releases paused now, the full rise would take hundreds of years, but it would come. (hedged) — 00:02:24
  • ★★★ Even if atmospheric CO2 started to decrease, no long-term scenario with current technology avoids more than a meter of sea level rise. — 00:02:39
  • ★★★ Humans are very good at solving problems, Hank says, just not at solving problems they are unable to recognize. — 00:02:46
  • ★★★ If we wait until 2100, when the serious sting of climate change is really felt, we will have signed up for much worse. — 00:02:54 · climate change

00:03:08 — Closing ice line, sign-off; congratulations on Life's Library's launch; Hank's longer climate video on his channel

  • ★★ Hank closes with the ice cube: the ice is dripping, but it is still ice. — 00:03:08
  • ★★ Hank congratulates John on launching Life's Library: it got its first thousand people and is now open for sign-ups; Hank has signed up himself. — 00:03:14 · John Green
  • ★★ Hank points to a long video on Hank's channel on his somewhat different, more nuanced and a little optimistic take on climate change. (hedged) — 00:03:22 · hankschannel, climate change

In the description and comments

  • ★★ The description says that despite Hank's master's degree in environmental studies, this graph, once explained to him, completely changed how he felt about human impacts on the planet. — video description
  • ★★ The description says being scared by the graph depends on caring about human life beyond one's own lifespan, which seems easy to Hank but maybe not to many others. — video description
  • ★★ Hank wonders whether we all just assume that, in the 500-plus years warming would take to cause a full melt, we will fix the problem some other way; fingers crossed, he guesses. (hedged) — video description
  • ★★ Hank cites three papers: on country responsibility and risk from global sea-level rise, on committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and delayed mitigation, and on flood damage costs as sea levels rise with warming. — video description

Threads in this video

Where the stories that moved here went next

Mentioned

Central: Sea level rise · Sea level rise commitment

Also: carbon dioxide · climate change · hankschannel · Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change · Life's Library · Representative Concentration Pathway · Student loan

Only in the description or credits: Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action · Flood damage costs under the sea level rise with warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C · Global sea-level rise: weighing country responsibility and risk

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