The Water's Getting Warm

2020-08-21 · letter vlog · Hank · 3:29 · watch on YouTube

Topic: Science & nature (also: Economics) · mode: Personal essay · tags: timely hook, heavy topic, community lore

Revisiting his line that climate change is humanity's first global collective problem, Hank says COVID-19 is a second: the pandemic's economic hit will leave fewer resources for escaping the carbon economy, which needs prosperity, but six months of collective action make him more hopeful that people will sacrifice when they see what's on the line.

What is said

The parts of the video and what is said in each (★ — how much it matters to the video).

00:00:00 — Revisiting the Game of Thrones video's line: is climate change the first global collective problem? COVID is a second

• ★★ Hank recalls that last year's (2019) video on Game of Thrones as a climate-change allegory said climate change is literally the first global-scale collective problem our species has faced. — 00:00:00 · climate change, collective action
• ★★ Hank questions the line: cancer, kind of, nuclear proliferation and poverty are also global collective problems; it depends on what he meant by collective. (hedged) — 00:00:00 · cancer, extreme poverty
• ★★★ If collective means everyone contributes and can affect it, however slightly, through their actions, then maybe global warming is the first large-scale collective problem the world has faced. (hedged) — 00:00:29 · climate change, collective action
• ★★★ If that is true, Hank tells John, we now have a second such problem, the pandemic, which we could have done without. (playful) — 00:00:29 · COVID-19 pandemic
• ★★ Hank hated the early talk that COVID would be a positive for the environment. — 00:00:29 · COVID-19 pandemic
• ★★★ Often overlooked: overcoming climate change requires prosperity, a world with enough for people to be safe and happy and resources to free ourselves from the carbon economy. — 00:00:29 · climate change

00:00:58 — Climate action needs prosperity; 2020 GDP loss vs the UN's annual climate cost; a coming period of slow growth

• ★★ Much current safety, health and prosperity relies on the carbon economy; right now we can't guarantee people's health and happiness while also spending extra on climate change. — 00:01:17 · climate change
• ★★★ Global GDP for 2020 is at negative five percent, which is four trillion dollars. — 00:01:17
• ★★★ The UN's upper estimate of what it would cost to fix climate change is four trillion dollars per year. — 00:01:17 · climate change
• ★★★ So every year we don't tackle climate change, we incur the costs of about one half to one COVID epidemic. — 00:01:44 · COVID-19 pandemic, climate change
• ★★ We face a very big global collective problem now and are rightly spending tremendous resources on it, directly or through increased economic activity. — 00:01:44
• ★★★ No one knows the end result, but Hank finds it easy to imagine a fairly significant period of slow or even declining economic growth. (hedged) — 00:01:44

00:02:14 — Dangers of all-out individualism, costs of action vs inaction, collective action as cause for fear and hope; sign-off

• ★★★ Meanwhile we won't be focused on climate change, understandably, and won't have the resources we otherwise would have had to free ourselves from the carbon economy. — 00:02:14 · climate change
• ★★★ The pandemic shows the dangers of all-out individualism: as freedom of expression doesn't always include not wearing a mask, our freedom to live as we want will be limited because it erodes our long-term ability to live in the world. — 00:02:14
• ★★ Climate action will have costs, as combating this epidemic does, but they are much less bad than the cost of doing nothing. — 00:02:43
• ★★★ Over the last six months Hank has watched collective action unlike anything he has seen in his lifetime, maybe ever. — 00:02:43 · collective action
• ★★ There are some standout 'crap faces', but we don't know, and may never know, the ultimate impact of their terrible behavior. (playful, unsure) — 00:02:43
• ★★★ Having seen collective action of the kind, if not the magnitude, climate change needs, Hank is more fearful of a less prosperous world but more hopeful, since people make sacrifices when they see what's on the line. — 00:03:12 · collective action, climate change

In the description and comments

• ★★ In the description Hank says humans are hyper-adaptable problem-solving machines and long term we've got this, though there will be a lot of bad along the way. — video description

Threads in this video

• refine · How serious is climate change? — If collective means everyone contributes and can affect it, however slightly, through their actions, then maybe global warming is the first large-scale collective problem the world has faced. (00:00:29)
• restate · How should we replace fossil fuels? — Often overlooked: overcoming climate change requires prosperity, a world with enough for people to be safe and happy and resources to free ourselves from the carbon economy. (00:00:29)
• predicted · Hank: the COVID-19 pandemic will bring a fairly significant period of slow or declining economic growth (2020) — No one knows the end result, but Hank finds it easy to imagine a fairly significant period of slow or even declining economic growth. (00:01:44)
• predicted · Hank: during the pandemic slowdown the world will have fewer resources to free itself from the carbon economy (2020) — Meanwhile we won't be focused on climate change, understandably, and won't have the resources we otherwise would have had to free ourselves from the carbon economy. (00:02:14)
• restate · Do people achieve more together than as individuals? — Over the last six months Hank has watched collective action unlike anything he has seen in his lifetime, maybe ever. (00:02:43)
• restate · Is it reasonable to be hopeful about the future? — Having seen collective action of the kind, if not the magnitude, climate change needs, Hank is more fearful of a less prosperous world but more hopeful, since people make sacrifices when they see what's on the line. (00:03:12)
• predicted · Hank: long term, humanity will handle its big problems (2020) — In the description Hank says humans are hyper-adaptable problem-solving machines and long term we've got this, though there will be a lot of bad along the way. (video description)
• variation · Vlogbrothers videos titled with Smash Mouth's All Star lyrics (2020) — The title The Water's Getting Warm continues the All Star lyric titles.
• predicted · Hank: the ultimate impact of the pandemic's standout bad actors may never be known (2020) — There are some standout 'crap faces', but we don't know, and may never know, the ultimate impact of their terrible behavior. (00:02:43)

Where the stories that moved here went next

• Hank: the COVID-19 pandemic will bring a fairly significant period of slow or declining economic growth (2020) — unresolved; last: predicted, 2020-08-21
• Hank: during the pandemic slowdown the world will have fewer resources to free itself from the carbon economy (2020) — unresolved; last: predicted, 2020-08-21
• Hank: long term, humanity will handle its big problems (2020) — unresolved; last: predicted, 2020-08-21
• Hank: the ultimate impact of the pandemic's standout bad actors may never be known (2020) — unresolved; last: predicted, 2020-08-21

Mentioned

Central: climate change · collective action · COVID-19 pandemic

Also: Works: A Song of Ice and Fire

Organizations: United Nations

Concepts: cancer · economic growth · extreme poverty · fossil fuel · gross domestic product · individualism · nuclear proliferation

Only in the description or credits: All Star

Replies to

• continues · What Game of Thrones is Really About — “Last year, I made a video about how Game of Thrones can be seen as an allegory for climate change”

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