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personal risk · societal risk

2020-11-24 · letter vlog · John · 3:53 · watch on YouTube

Topic: Health · mode: Explainer · tags: timely hook, civic or action cta, heavy topic

Before Thanksgiving 2020, John distinguishes personal from societal COVID-19 risk: even when individual risk is low, the toll is unequal, the pandemic's costs stem from the disease rather than regulation, and an overwhelmed health system kills many more, so he asks Americans who can to stay home.

What is said

The parts of the video and what is said in each (★ — how much it matters to the video).

00:00:00 — Personal versus societal risk; COVID's unequal toll

  • ★★★ In the US a 75-year-old with COVID-19 has well over a 90% chance of surviving; at John's age, even with some pre-existing conditions, over 98%. — 00:00:00 · United States, COVID-19 pandemic
  • ★★★ Personal and societal risk differ greatly: if 1% of Americans died tomorrow, John almost certainly wouldn't, but 3.3 million people would, a catastrophe. — 00:00:00
  • ★★ COVID doesn't only kill: it can also cause severe illness and long-term health complications. — 00:00:29 · COVID-19 pandemic
  • ★★★ Infectious disease never treats people equally because social orders don't; in the US mortality is far higher among people of color. — 00:00:29 · health equity, United States

00:00:58 — The costs of pandemic responses come from the disease, not regulation; Sweden and Norway

  • ★★ In the Spanish flu pandemic middle-aged adults were most likely to die; in this pandemic older adults are. — 00:00:58
  • ★★ More vulnerable people bear more personal risk, which John argues raises societal risk, though some seem to argue it lowers it. — 00:00:58
  • ★★★ The huge, unequal costs of pandemic responses (disrupted education, lost economic activity, isolation) are rooted in the disease, not government regulation. — 00:01:27
  • ★★ Even where bars and theaters are open, people avoid them while maskless indoor gatherings are known to spread the disease. — 00:01:27
  • ★★ It is not at all clear that keeping everything open reduces the pandemic's costs. — 00:01:27

00:01:56 — Overwhelmed health systems: Ebola in Sierra Leone and COVID now

  • ★★★ Sweden took far fewer public health measures than Norway and has a COVID death rate over 10 times higher, yet its economy has suffered more. — 00:01:56 · COVID-19 pandemic
  • ★★★ During Sierra Leone's 2014 Ebola outbreak the health system collapsed, and mortality rose sharply: more mothers died in childbirth, more children of diarrheal illness. — 00:01:56 · Sierra Leone
  • ★★ John relays a doctor's view that most people who died of Ebola died not of Ebola but because the health system was overwhelmed. — 00:02:26
  • ★★★ Uncontrolled COVID spread overwhelms health systems, as is happening now, so people die of normally survivable problems; this strain is why societal risk is so high. — 00:02:26 · COVID-19 pandemic

00:02:55 — Thanksgiving: please stay home if you can; sign-off

  • ★★ Slowing transmission would lessen the unconscionable burden on health-care workers. — 00:02:55
  • ★★★ COVID killed over 10,000 Americans last week (week of 16 November 2020). — 00:03:24 · COVID-19 pandemic, United States
  • ★★ Safe and effective COVID vaccines are coming. — 00:03:24 · vaccine, COVID-19 pandemic
  • ★★★ Many Americans can choose whether to risk exposing loved ones at Thanksgiving dinner; John asks those who have a choice to stay home. — 00:03:24
  • ★ John tells Hank that because he loves him, Hank can't come to Thanksgiving. (playful) — 00:03:24
  • ★★ John closes hopefully: next year (2021) there will be feasting and dancing in Jerusalem. — 00:03:24

In the description and comments

  • ★ The description says there is no secret livestream this week (week of 23 November 2020) because e-learning support takes up a lot of time. — video description

Threads in this video

Where the stories that moved here went next

Mentioned

Central: COVID-19 pandemic · Thanksgiving

Also: Concepts: health equity · infectious disease · regulation · vaccine

Places: Jerusalem · Norway · Sierra Leone · Sweden · United States

Events: Spanish flu · Western African Ebola virus epidemic

Also centred on Thanksgiving: November 21st: What I'm Grateful For · Thanksgiving in Asheville · 50 THINGS!! That I'm Thankful For · Black Friday: An Accident of History · It Wasn't Supposed to be Thanksgiving Yesterday

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