Skip to content

Most People Have Never Been 20

2022-10-11 · explainer · John · 3:59 · watch on YouTube

Topic: Global development (also: History & curiosities) · mode: Explainer · tags: fundraising ask, calendar ritual, heavy topic

Asking when the median human was born, John finds it was about 2,000 years ago, not because so many people lived then but because so many died young: early death was the norm and most people who ever died never reached 20, but we can choose a world with fewer early deaths.

What is said

The parts of the video and what is said in each (★ — how much it matters to the video).

00:00:00 — When was the median human born: 117 billion people, about 2,000 years ago, and what that person's world was like

  • ★★ John says that, from population modeling and genetic research, the best current guess is that about 117 billion modern humans have ever lived. (hedged) — 00:00:00
  • ★★ John says fewer humans lived on Earth 6,000 years ago than live in Mexico City today. — 00:00:29
  • ★★ John says 7% of the people who have ever lived are alive now. — 00:00:29
  • ★★★ According to the Population Reference Bureau, the median human ever born, the 58.5 billionth, was probably born between 10 and 100 CE, about 2,000 years ago. (hedged) — 00:00:58
  • ★★ John says most people ever born lived and died before Nero or Mansa Musa, before minutes and seconds, guns, global Christianity and Islam, and potatoes or pineapples in Afro-Eurasia. — 00:00:58

00:01:27 — Life expectancy myths, child mortality and early death as the historical norm

  • ★★ John says the median person almost certainly could not read or write, probably was not monotheist, probably died before adulthood, and if not, probably farmed and lost children. (hedged) — 00:01:27 · child mortality
  • ★★ John was taught that life expectancy in the old days was 30 and took it to mean the average adult died at 30, which is not the case. — 00:01:27
  • ★★ John says in early-1800s Sweden a 10-year-old's life expectancy was around 46, and in 1841 England a 20-year-old's was around 60. — 00:01:27 · England
  • ★★★ John says overall life expectancy was brought below 30 only because child mortality was so high. — 00:01:56 · child mortality
  • ★★ Against the claim that only falling child mortality raised life expectancy, John says in 1865 Italy it was under 50 even for those surviving childbirth; today well over 70. — 00:01:56 · child mortality
  • ★★ John says 200 years ago about a quarter of all humans died of tuberculosis, most of them under 40. — 00:01:56 · tuberculosis
  • ★★ John says girls who survived childhood had a very high chance of dying in childbirth, in some communities over 10%. — 00:02:26 · maternal death
  • ★★ John says about 30% of people born in France in 1800 died before age 10. — 00:02:26 · child mortality
  • ★★ John says life expectancy in Iron Age France was not 28 or 30 but 10 or 12. — 00:02:26
  • ★★★ John says the best current guess is that when the median person was born 2,000 years ago, half of all people died before age 10. (hedged) — 00:02:26 · child mortality
  • ★★ John says child mortality was so high that birth rates were five times today's, yet the human population barely grew. — 00:02:55 · child mortality
  • ★★★ John says the median human was born 2,000 years ago because so many people died young: early death was not merely common but the norm, as dying at 80 is now. — 00:02:55
  • ★★ John says that even last year (2021) more people died before age five than between 65 and 69. — 00:02:55 · child mortality

00:03:24 — Most people never saw 20; choosing fewer early deaths; PIH and the Pizzamas total; sign-off

  • ★★★ John says it is likely that most of the 110 billion humans who have died never saw the age of 20. (hedged) — 00:03:24
  • ★★★ John says we can't change historical rates of premature death, but we can choose a world where fewer people die early, and he knows because we have made that choice before. — 00:03:24 · child mortality
  • ★★ John says that is what the brothers are trying to do at pih.org/hankandjohn; the description invites one-time or monthly donations for maternal and child health in Sierra Leone. — 00:03:24 · Partners In Health, Sierra Leone, maternal death
  • ★★★ John says Pizzamas raised over $130,000 toward better maternal and child health in impoverished communities. — 00:03:24 · Pizzamas, maternal death

In the description and comments

  • ★★ The description gives John's math: of the first 100 billion people at least 53 billion died before 20, and over 30% of the latest 10 billion, so a conservative 56 billion of 110 billion. — video description
  • ★★ In a comment John says the most effective NGOs partner with and strengthen governments and communities; PIH's hospitals and clinics are owned by the governments and communities where it works. — creator comment · Partners In Health
  • ★★ In a comment John credits public health interventions such as clean water, vaccination and toxin regulation, saying good sewer systems have probably saved more lives than all medicines. (hedged) — creator comment
  • ★★ In a comment John says most people ever born may not have lived to 10, but that is closer to 50/50, so given the margins of error he avoided a clickbaity title. — creator comment

Threads in this video

Where the stories that moved here went next

Mentioned

Central: child mortality · life expectancy

Also: People: Mansa Musa · Nero

Projects: Pizzamas

Organizations: Partners In Health · Population Reference Bureau

Concepts: Christianity · Islam · literacy · maternal death · pineapple · potato (concept) · total fertility rate · tuberculosis

Places: Afro-Eurasia · England · France · Italy · Mexico City · Sweden

Only in the description or credits: Our World in Data · Sierra Leone

Also centred on life expectancy: Your Neighborhood, Your Life Expectancy · When Will You Die? · Seven Maps to Better Understand the World · The Life Expectancy Lies That Won't Die

← Previous: Planets Don't Exist · Next → The Surprise Revelation of NerdfArters