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Is Book Publishing Dying? An Author's Perspective

2025-10-21 · letter vlog · John · 6:17 · watch on YouTube

Topic: Books & writing · mode: Personal essay · tags: civic or action cta, self correction

John asks whether book publishing is in structural decline: it is a tiny business and sales are falling as attention shifts and books lose their edge as a cheap entertainment deal, but people still read because books add value, and he argues books, a deeper entertainment the reader co-creates, will not go away. He closes by asking viewers to make art for the P4A Nerdfighter Art Perk.

What is said

The parts of the video and what is said in each (★ — how much it matters to the video).

00:00:00 — The question whether publishing is really dying; publishing as a tiny business in numbers

  • ★★ John says publishing has been 'dying' ever since he started publishing books in 2005, but some now argue it is really dying, in structural decline like newspapers and linear television. — 00:00:00
  • ★★ John says the single video game Call of Duty Black Ops 6 sold more copies than all books for adults combined in the United States in 2024. — 00:00:20
    • check: sold more copies than All books for adults combined — slip of the tongue
  • ★★ John says about 30% of books from major publishers sell fewer than 1,000 copies, and around 90% sell fewer than 10,000. (hedged) — 00:00:29
  • ★★ John says the best-selling book of 2024 sold about 1.6 million copies, while the year's best-selling movie sold about 80 million theater seats, in a business said to be in structural decline. (hedged) — 00:00:29
  • ★★ John says publishing has always been a small business but punches above its weight culturally, because we care about stories and books shape cultural conversations. — 00:00:55

00:01:01 — Counterpoints: most adults still read, audiobooks and independent publishing grow, more independent bookstores

  • ★★ John says about 75% of American adults report reading a book in the last year, and younger adults are more likely to have done so than older adults. (hedged) — 00:01:01
  • ★★ John says the idea that TikTok is making reading impossible is a little off base, though, as he will explain, also a little on base. — 00:01:01 · TikTok
  • ★★ John says parts of publishing are growing, such as audiobooks and independent publishing, with over a million titles published independently this year (2025), a significant part of the e-book market. — 00:01:30
  • ★ John says one of his favorite writers, Ann Swinfen, self-published her books. — 00:01:30
  • ★★ John says that for authors with their own audiences who can pay for editorial services, self-publishing is increasingly not just viable but can be the preferable option. — 00:01:30
  • ★★ John thinks traditional publishers still add a lot of value through editing, marketing and distribution into bookstores, which matters more than ever. — 00:01:59
  • ★★ John says there are more independent bookstores in the US now than when Looking for Alaska came out in 2005, and more ways to support them online, such as Bookshop.org. — 00:01:59 · Looking for Alaska (novel)

00:02:28 — The decline: falling sales, attention spans, and books no longer the best deal in entertainment

  • ★★★ John says people don't read books out of charity or obligation but because books add more value to their lives than they cost. — 00:02:28
  • ★★ John says publishing is in a bit of a decline: per Publishers Weekly, year-over-year sales for the most recent month are down around 10%, which he calls pretty dramatic. (hedged) — 00:02:28
  • ★★ John says the internet is starting to change our attention spans; for many people reading books is harder than even five years ago. — 00:02:53 · attention economy
  • ★★ John says that while reading he often feels the siren call of his phone: he wonders if there's a Wikipedia page about something, and then he's off. — 00:02:53 · Wikipedia
  • ★★ John says that while most people report reading at least one book in the last year, only about 20% report reading at least 10. (hedged) — 00:02:53
  • ★★ John says his book The Fault in Our Stars costs around $8 for 8 to 10 hours of entertainment, less than a dollar per hour, which he thinks is a good deal. — 00:03:23 · The Fault in Our Stars
  • ★★★ John says books used to be, in his opinion, one of the best deals in all of entertainment, and that is no longer the case. — 00:03:23
  • ★★ John recalls making a Vlogbrothers video around 2007 or 2008 arguing a movie costs $10 for two hours of entertainment while a book costs $10 for 14 hours. (hedged) — 00:03:23 · Vlogbrothers
  • ★★ John says hardcover books can now cost $27 or $30, while TikTok and Instagram are free unless you count the cost of your attention. — 00:03:52 · TikTok, Instagram, attention economy
  • ★★★ John says there is no question the value proposition of books has changed for readers. — 00:03:52
  • ★★ John says the changed value proposition may be part of a long-term structural change in how many people read books, why and whether they read them. (hedged) — 00:03:52
  • ★★★ John argues books can still compete with TikTok for some people: TikTok is better entertainment but books are deeper, letting you visit otherwise inaccessible rooms in your mind. — 00:03:52 · TikTok

00:04:21 — Books as deeper entertainment the reader co-creates; why books will not go away

  • ★★ John says books will continue to be a small business and may even shrink somewhat over the next decade. (hedged) — 00:04:21
  • ★★★ John says he doesn't think books will go away. — 00:04:21
  • ★★ John thinks linear television will probably go away. (hedged) — 00:04:21
  • ★★ John says for about $7 you can get Toni Morrison's Beloved and have your life rocked; its lines, characters, plot and symbols stay with you for decades. — 00:04:21
  • ★★★ John says readers are co-creators of books, rendering even a popular book unique by bringing themselves to it, which is why books express deep things nothing else can touch. — 00:04:50

00:05:19 — The P4A Nerdfighter Art Perk ask, art as an exchange of value, and sign-off

  • ★★★ John concludes that for many people books are not just a good deal but an essential one, so as long as there are people there will be readers. — 00:05:19
  • ★★ John describes his favorite P4A perk, the Nerdfighter Art Perk: people worldwide make art valued at about $30, from plushies to paintings to knitted stuff, which is sent to someone who gets the perk. (hedged) — 00:05:19 · Project for Awesome
  • ★★ John calls the art perk a lovely exchange of value that captures what the exchange of value ought to be in books and other art. — 00:05:49 · Project for Awesome
  • ★★★ John asks viewers who want to make something for this year's (2025) Nerdfighter Art Perk to visit projectforawesome.com/physicalart by Wednesday (22 October 2025), October 29. — 00:05:49 · Project for Awesome
  • ★★ John says he really believes art will survive as long as we do, and thanks viewers for making and for reading, watching and listening to art. — 00:05:49

In the description and comments

  • ★★ The description corrects the video: all Call of Duty games combined have sold over 500,000,000 copies, not Black Ops 6 alone. — video description

Threads in this video

Where the stories that moved here went next

Mentioned

Central: Book · publishing

Also: People: Ann Swinfen

Projects: Project for Awesome

Works: Beloved · Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 · Looking for Alaska (novel) · The Fault in Our Stars

Organizations: Bookshop.org · Instagram · Publishers Weekly · TikTok · Wikipedia

Concepts: attention economy · audiobook · e-book · independent bookstore · journalism · reader-response criticism · self-publishing · smartphone · television

Only in the description or credits: Call of Duty · Pew Research Center · Toni Morrison

Also centred on Book: What Will Books Become?

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