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What Everyone Gets Wrong About Global Warming

2017-09-01 · explainer · Hank · 3:59 · watch on YouTube

Topic: Science & nature · mode: Explainer · tags: timely hook, self promotion

Hank argues that a warmer Earth changes the probability of weather, not any one year's outcome: each hurricane season is one dot from a probability curve, single years show no trend, but more energy and carbon shift the curve toward stronger, wetter storms, making rare years and worst-place hits like Harvey and Katrina less rare and changing what counts as a 100-year flood.

What is said

The parts of the video and what is said in each (★ — how much it matters to the video).

00:00:00 — Climate effects on weather are probabilities; plotting major storms per year over 50 years

  • ★ Hank says the effect of a warmer Earth on weather does not fit a 15-second soundbite, and it is not anybody's fault for not getting it. (hedged) — 00:00:14 · climate change
  • ★★★ Hank says talk of a warmer Earth's effect on weather is not about what will happen but about the probability of what will happen. — 00:00:24 · climate change
  • ★★ Plotting major storms per year over the last 50 years, Hank says most years had two, some five, four or zero, and 2005, the year Katrina hit New Orleans, had seven. — 00:00:34 · United States

00:00:54 — The probability distribution: each season collapses into a dot; no trend from a few dots; warming shifts the curve

  • ★★★ Hank says the probability distribution, not the individual dots, is how we should always think about how a changing climate affects weather this year (2017). — 00:00:55 · climate change

    “not the dots, the curve”

  • ★★ Hank says each season's curve collapses into a dot: last year (2016) four major storms, then two, two again and zero, which he insists is not a trend. — 00:01:18

  • ★★ Hank says no single dot matters: the number of serious storms can jump dramatically from year to year while coming from the same probability curve. — 00:01:42
  • ★★★ Hank says a warmer planet does not simply move one year from one dot to another, because global energy is not the only important variable; it shifts the whole curve. — 00:01:49 · climate change

00:02:05 — Consequences: rare years less rare, worst-place hits like Harvey and Katrina, insurance and 100-year floods, computer models, carbon

  • ★★ Hank says a shifted curve may still give a year of zero, just less likely, and years like 2005 will stay rare but become less rare. — 00:02:05
  • ★★ Hank says more strong storms make it likelier that some hit the worst possible places, as Harvey and Katrina did. — 00:02:12
  • ★★ Hank says homes once considered safe might struggle to get insurance, since nobody understands probability curves like insurance workers. (hedged) — 00:02:19
  • ★★ Hank says probability curves set whether a flood is a 1-in-100 or 1-in-50 chance, so as they change, 100-year floods stop being 100-year floods. — 00:02:33
  • ★★ Hank says a curve can shift before we notice, since we get one dot a year, which is why computer models rerun hurricane seasons with slightly changed variables. — 00:02:40
  • ★★★ Hank says the models show that more energy in the global system shifts the curves toward stronger, wetter storms. — 00:02:55 · climate change
  • ★★★ Hank says the more carbon we release, the more the curves shift: that is the future we have to accept and prepare for. — 00:03:04 · climate change

00:03:19 — End chat: VidCon Australia, the new giraffe-love shirt, sold-out backpacks, quiet fidget toys, Crash Course Film Production and Healthcare Triage's guns series

  • ★★ Hank says he is going to Australia and will see Australians at VidCon Australia. — 00:03:23 · Australia
  • ★★ Hank shows the new giraffe-love shirt designed by Ming Doyle, which he likes, available at DFTBA.com. — 00:03:26 · DFTBA Records
  • ★ Hank says the backpacks sold out, so the one he holds is his and viewers can't have it. (playful) — 00:03:32
  • ★★ Hank recommends Crash Course Film Production with Lily Gladstone as so good. — 00:03:50 · Crash Course
  • ★★ Hank recommends Healthcare Triage's recent series on guns in America as really well done. — 00:03:52 · United States

In the description and comments

  • ★★ In the description Hank notes he says 'probability curve' where a statistician would say 'probability distribution', a deliberate choice to make it easier to understand. — video description
  • ★★ Hank writes that pretty much everything is better understood through probability functions; he likes to see the function underneath rather than the collapsed dot of reality, which is why winning at gambling feels empty to him: gambling is always losing, even if you win. — video description

Threads in this video

Where the stories that moved here went next

Mentioned

Central: climate change · probability distribution

Also: Projects: Crash Course · DFTBA Records · Healthcare Triage · VidCon Australia

Works: Giraffe love shirt · Nerdfighter backpack

Concepts: 100-year flood · climate model · probability

Places: Australia · New Orleans · United States

Events: Hurricane Harvey · Hurricane Katrina

Only in the description or credits: gambling · Lily Gladstone · Ming Doyle

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