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The General Crisis

2018-07-10 · explainer · John · 4:00 · watch on YouTube

Topic: History & curiosities (also: Global development) · mode: Explainer · tags: heavy topic

Curious when the global human population last declined, John learns via Our World in Data that it was 1648, the end of the General Crisis (1608–1648), when disease after the Columbian Exchange, the Atlantic slave trade, the Thirty Years' War, the Ming collapse, silver-driven inflation and the Little Ice Age cut population despite growing wealth. He concludes that progress is never simple, universal or guaranteed, that a changing climate can fuel instability, and that wealth is only good news once we learn to share it.

What is said

The parts of the video and what is said in each (★ — how much it matters to the video).

00:00:00 — John's question about the last global population decline; Max Roser and Hannah Ritchie of Our World in Data; the answer, 1648

  • ★★ John became intensely interested in the most recent year global population declined; deep Googling and the library failed, Max Roser of Our World in Data didn't know, but his colleague Hannah Ritchie found an answer. — 00:00:01
  • ★★★ John says the last time the global human population decreased year over year was 1648. — 00:00:27

00:00:39 — The General Crisis of 1608–1648: wealth and food amid disease, the slave trade, the Thirty Years' War, Spanish defaults, the Ming collapse and the Little Ice Age

  • ★★★ The global human population decreased every year between 1608 and 1648, part of a period sometimes called the General Crisis. — 00:00:39
  • ★ John jokes that 'the General Crisis' shows historians are terrible at naming things, except that it really was a rather general crisis. (playful, hedged) — 00:00:48
  • ★★ From Africa to Asia to Europe to the Americas there was a lot of crisis, oddly, since the human species overall was getting much wealthier and better connected. — 00:00:54 · Europe
  • ★★ There was much more silver because European empires, especially the Spanish Empire, were extracting it from colonies in the Americas. — 00:01:05
  • ★★ A broader range of food was available: rice and wheat had just come to the Americas, and pineapples, cassava and potatoes to Afro-Eurasia. — 00:01:12
  • ★★ You would think more money and more food would mean more people, but no. — 00:01:21
  • ★★★ The Columbian Exchange also brought devastation: perhaps over 90% of Native Americans were killed in the centuries after Europeans arrived, mostly by new diseases like smallpox and diphtheria, a decline lasting through the General Crisis. (hedged) — 00:01:27
  • ★★★ The Atlantic slave trade grew throughout the General Crisis: around 15% of Africans died in slave ships on the journey to the Americas, and survivors' life expectancies were severely diminished. — 00:01:43
  • ★★★ John thinks it worth noting that many crops grown with slave labor, like coffee and tobacco, were not necessary to sustain human life: they were basically luxury goods. (hedged) — 00:01:56
  • ★★★ More access to luxury goods may have shown that humanity was getting wealthier, but that doesn't necessarily mean average human life was getting better. (hedged) — 00:02:06
  • ★★★ Despite the wealth, European populations declined, largely due to the Thirty Years' War, which through combat and famine killed around 20% of people in today's Germany and up to a third in Poland and Lithuania. — 00:02:14
  • ★★ Spain, phenomenally wealthy from silver, defaulted on its debts repeatedly during the General Crisis because it didn't understand the inflation all that silver caused. — 00:02:32
  • ★★★ The single biggest contributor to 17th-century population decline was the Ming Dynasty's collapse: between 1600 and 1644, when the Qing began, China's population fell by 50 million. — 00:02:43 · China
  • ★★ Silver also played a part: the Ming required taxes in silver, so people worked more hours making goods to sell, lowering agricultural yields; like Spain, the Ming failed to understand inflation, leading to famine. — 00:02:57
  • ★★★ Earth also experienced significant climate change, sometimes called the Little Ice Age: global temperatures dropped on average around one degree Celsius, contributing to famines. — 00:03:16 · climate change
  • ★★ John starts to reassure that the period's climate change is not like today's, then admits that it is. (playful) — 00:03:29 · climate change

00:03:32 — Lessons: progress is not simple, universal or guaranteed; climate and shared growth; sign-off

  • ★★ Since the General Crisis humanity has had its longest ever run of population growth, increased life expectancy and decreased poverty. — 00:03:32
  • ★★★ The early 17th century is a reminder that progress is never simple, universal or guaranteed. — 00:03:40 · progress
  • ★★★ It is also a reminder that a changing climate can fuel global instability. — 00:03:46 · climate change
  • ★★★ Growing connectivity and wealth is only good news for humans once we learn to live with and share that growth. — 00:03:50

In the description and comments

  • ★ The description thanks Our World in Data for being an amazing source of information about life on Earth, and Hannah Ritchie for answering John's question. — video description

Threads in this video

Mentioned

Central: General Crisis · world population

Also: People: Max Roser

Organizations: Our World in Data

Groups: Indigenous peoples of the Americas

Concepts: climate change · diphtheria · Famine · inflation · life expectancy · progress · slavery · smallpox

Places: Africa · Afro-Eurasia · Americas · Asia · China · Europe · Germany · Lithuania · Ming dynasty · Poland · Qing dynasty · Spain · Spanish Empire

Events: Atlantic slave trade · Columbian exchange · Little Ice Age · Thirty Years' War

Only in the description or credits: Hannah Ritchie

Also centred on world population: 7,000,000,000 People

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