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Why Do So Few Countries Have Nukes?

2018-07-13 · explainer · Hank · 9:58 · watch on YouTube

Topic: World affairs · mode: Explainer · tags: heavy topic, self promotion

Prompted by John's video on the General Crisis, Hank explains why only nine of about 195 countries have nuclear weapons: the history of nuclear states, the non-proliferation treaty, cost, sanctions, alliances, luck and a norm against nukes. He warns that sanctions can push isolated states toward nukes, that barriers are falling, and that after 73 good years we may be getting complacent, and he thanks the people whose work kept the peace.

What is said

The parts of the video and what is said in each (★ — how much it matters to the video).

00:00:00 — John's last video prompts the question: why so few of 195 countries have nukes; Hank's caveat that he is no expert

  • ★★★ John's last video, on huge shifts in global power causing short-term catastrophe, made Hank think how deeply wonderful it is that we have got through 73 years as a nuclear species without destroying ourselves. — 00:00:00 · John Green
  • ★★★ There are about 195 countries, and only nine of them have access to nuclear weapons. — 00:00:15
  • ★★ North Korea, with a per-capita GDP of $1,300, has proven you don't need a ton of money to have a nuclear arsenal. — 00:00:21
  • ★★★ That so few countries have nukes seems a tremendous success that should be celebrated, studied, talked about and fretted over maintaining. (hedged) — 00:00:29
  • ★★ Hank is not an expert in international relations, but he talked to some experts and recorded an interview with one that is on hankschannel now. — 00:00:47 · hankschannel
  • ★ The Wikipedia page on Iran's nuclear program alone is more than 20,000 words. — 00:01:04 · Wikipedia

00:01:12 — Who got nuclear weapons when, who gave them up, who holds most, and who tried

  • ★★★ First nuclear tests: the US in 1945, the USSR in 1949, the UK in 1957, France in 1960 and China in 1964, a big spurt that becomes important later. — 00:01:12 · United States, United Kingdom, China
  • ★★ Israel definitely has secret nukes and may have had them as early as the 1960s, but has never tested one or admitted to having them. (hedged) — 00:01:27
  • ★★ India developed nuclear weapons in the 70s. — 00:01:31
  • ★★ South Africa built, but probably never tested, fission bombs in the 1980s before dismantling them. (hedged) — 00:01:36
  • ★★ In 1991 Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan briefly had nuclear weapons because they already had them when the USSR collapsed and they came into existence. — 00:01:41
  • ★★ In 1994 they gave all those weapons back to Russia in exchange for assurances that Russia would never challenge their borders. — 00:01:52
  • ★★ Hank sarcastically remarks that the deal for Russian border assurances seems to have turned out just fine. (satire) — 00:01:57
  • ★★ Pakistan surprised the world with a nuclear test in 1998, and North Korea's first test was in 2006. — 00:02:00
  • ★★ By volume the US and Russia hold the vast majority of nuclear weapons; everyone else is roughly tied for last, North Korea 'extra last'. — 00:02:05 · United States
  • ★★ Other countries have tried: there have been nuclear programs in Brazil, Argentina, Libya, Iran, Taiwan and South Korea. — 00:02:20
  • ★★ More states have tried to get nuclear weapons than have them. — 00:02:26

00:02:31 — The 1960s spurt, the arms race and Cold War, and the UN non-proliferation treaty

  • ★★ The 1960s spurt ending with China was rightly seen as scary, possibly especially because Europeans saw China as a non-European, non-white country, and because Mao Zedong was a pretty scary dude. (hedged) — 00:02:33 · China
  • ★★ Countries explored nuclear programs just because their neighbours were, and the international community realized this would lead to a fully nuclear world. — 00:02:52
  • ★★ Many then saw nukes as just another new weapon, but with an arms race on, people realized the bombs dropped in Japan were only a fraction of what could be done; the Cold War brought bomb shelters and school drills. — 00:03:02
  • ★★★ Some countries got together at the UN to create a treaty under which signatories without nukes would not pursue nuclear weapons programs. — 00:03:35
  • ★★ Over the years every country signed except India, Pakistan and Israel, which all subsequently developed nuclear weapons. — 00:03:47
  • ★★ North Korea is the only country to have withdrawn from the treaty. — 00:04:03
  • ★★ For a signatory, developing nuclear weapons is literally against international law. — 00:04:06
  • ★★ Signing is not required, as South Sudan showed when it became a country in 2011 and did not sign the treaty, at least yet. — 00:04:10

00:04:17 — Eight reasons so few countries have nukes; the norm against them; sanctions push isolated states toward them; 'unless'

  • ★★ Reason one: it is very expensive to purify uranium-235, though it is getting cheaper. — 00:04:24
  • ★★ Reason two: being cut off from trade by the whole international community is also expensive, which raises the price of violating the treaty. — 00:04:29
  • ★★ Reason three: it is generally good to be a productive member of the international community and agree with what everyone agrees with. — 00:04:39
  • ★★ Reason four: international laws against selling nuclear materials, except in very specific circumstances, have been really successful. — 00:04:47
  • ★★ Reason five: the US has traditionally had very good relationships with its allies and promised to protect them with its giant nuclear arsenal. — 00:04:54 · United States
  • ★★ Reason six: the 73 years since World War II have been remarkably prosperous and peaceful. — 00:05:03
  • ★★★ Reason seven: we got very, very lucky; there is no guarantee that a rerun of the experiment would end as well. — 00:05:08
  • ★★★ Reason eight: for those and many other reasons, including humanitarian ones, most countries just don't want nuclear weapons. — 00:05:17
  • ★★ International relations experts talk about a norm against nuclear weapons: they are seen as taboo, and developing a program as wading into the muck. — 00:05:27
  • ★★ Looking at who has created weapons programs in recent years, it is indeed kind of a mucky place. (hedged) — 00:05:37
  • ★★ Hank was surprised to learn South Africa had a nuclear program; it arose because the country was ostracized for its explicitly racist government. — 00:05:44
  • ★★★ Unfortunately the main tool for discouraging nuclear programs can sometimes force countries even deeper into that muck. — 00:05:53
  • ★★★ A country, leader or people, will only want nuclear weapons now if it feels threatened by the international order: when it is unstable, autocratic or on bad terms with its neighbours. — 00:06:03
  • ★★ Hank is not saying sanctions should be done a different way; he doesn't know. (unsure) — 00:06:18
  • ★★★ Sanctions hurt economies and isolate countries; those hurt most are the poor, not leaders in palaces, and the more isolated people are, the easier it is to tell them the world is out to get them. — 00:06:20
  • ★★ That is how countries like North Korea, and, it's feared, maybe someday Iran, slip through the cracks. (hedged) — 00:06:41
  • ★★★ So the new entrants to the 'nuclear club' are the least stable countries, partly because sanctions may destabilize them. — 00:06:47
  • ★★★ Stable countries that are productive members of the international community don't want nukes: they are expensive, illegal, hard to maintain and give no clear benefit. — 00:07:00
  • ★★★ The lack of clear benefit matters most, but holds only unless nukes bring legitimacy, access and power, the world destabilizes, alliances erode, international law weakens or experts' work is not upheld. — 00:07:12

00:07:44 — Barriers are falling; the path forward; thanks to the people who did the work; worry about complacency

  • ★★★ The barriers to making nuclear weapons are falling and the penalties less effective, so countries that want them will find them easier to get. — 00:07:44
  • ★★★ The path forward may be to keep creating a world with few benefits to having nuclear weapons, so few countries want them not from fear of penalties but for lack of advantage. (hedged) — 00:07:52
  • ★★★ Building that world was a complicated process of compromise and hard work by lots of good people working together; like any relationship, global relationships are lots of work. — 00:08:10
  • ★★ Nuclear weapons have been used only twice in war, which Hank recognizes was done by his country. — 00:08:28 · United States
  • ★★★ Decades of non-proliferation and only two wartime uses are a remarkable testament to people working together. — 00:08:36
  • ★★★ We did screw up and had terrifying near-misses; getting this far is one part luck, one part hard work by thoughtful people dedicated to peace and stability, and one part even more luck. — 00:08:40
  • ★★ Hank thanks the people who have worked on that, however they worked on it: it is remarkable. — 00:08:58
  • ★★★ Hank worries that after a fairly good 73 years we may be getting complacent, forgetting how hard we worked, how bad it could have gone and how much work remains. (hedged) — 00:09:06
  • ★★ It could have gone better, but we have done remarkably well. — 00:09:22

00:09:26 — Sign-off, thanks to consultants, the interview on hankschannel and Complexly's new channel

  • ★★ Hank thanks Katherine Gill and Jeffrey Lewis for consulting on the video and points to his half-hour interview with Jeffrey on hankschannel. — 00:09:30 · hankschannel
  • ★★ Hank recommends a series on the US court system on youtube.com/complexly, Complexly's new YouTube channel where the production company can try new things. — 00:09:40 · Complexly, United States

In the description and comments

  • ★★ In the description Hank says we are lucky it is so hard to separate uranium isotopes: if it were easier, we would probably have destroyed ourselves by now. (hedged) — video description
  • ★★ The description adds a view the video skipped: some experts argue nuclear weapons brought greater peace and prosperity and have done more good than harm, a commonly held viewpoint. — video description
  • ★★ Hank relays the commonly held argument that the threat of nuclear weapons has kept major powers from fighting each other; it has maybe increased proxy wars, bad for the Middle East, some of Africa and a particular Asian peninsula, but, they say, that beats World War III. (hedged) — video description
  • ★★★ What Hank wants to remember is that the stable world was not inevitable; he thanks everyone who worked to create it and hopes we can maintain it. — video description

Threads in this video

Where the stories that moved here went next

Mentioned

Central: North Korea · nuclear proliferation · nuclear weapon · Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

Also: People: Mao Zedong

Projects: Complexly · hankschannel

Organizations: United Nations · Wikipedia

Concepts: arms race · economic sanctions · international law · nuclear fission · nuclear taboo · uranium-235

Places: Argentina · Belarus · Brazil · China · France · India · Iran · Israel · Kazakhstan · Libya · Pakistan · Russia · South Africa · South Korea · South Sudan · Soviet Union · Taiwan · Ukraine · United Kingdom · United States

Events: Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki · Cold War · World War II

Only in the description or credits: Africa · Jeffrey Lewis · Katherine Gill · Middle East · proxy war

Also centred on North Korea: The EVIL BABY ORPHANAGE Returns for North Korea · North Korea: Explained · Inside North Korea

Replies to

  • continues · The General Crisis — “in your last video you were talking about how sometimes huge shifts in global power structures result in short-term catastrophe”

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