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Ukraine and Russia: What Caused the War?

2022-03-15 · explainer · John · 8:55 · watch on YouTube

Topic: World affairs · mode: News analysis · tags: timely hook, heavy topic, self correction

Formerly titled What Caused the War? Ukraine and Russia in Historical Context.

John traces Ukraine's history (the 1917 Ukrainian People's Republic, the Bolshevik conquest, Stalin's Holodomor and deportations, the 1991 independence vote, energy ties) and argues the war is what Putin says it is: a belief that Ukraine is no legitimate nation and Russia was robbed, not NATO or protecting Russian speakers. Ukraine has the right to exist in freedom.

What is said

The parts of the video and what is said in each (★ — how much it matters to the video).

00:00:00 — Snapshot of Ukraine: size, population, languages

  • ★★ John says that to understand the unfolding catastrophe in Ukraine it is really important to have historical and political context. — 00:00:00
  • ★★ John says Ukraine is the second-largest country in Europe by area and, as of three weeks ago, home to over 40 million people. — 00:00:00 · Europe
  • ★★ John says Ukrainian is the first language of about two-thirds of Ukrainians and Russian of about 30%, Russian being most spoken in the east and south. — 00:00:00

00:00:29 — 1917-1921 independence and Bolshevik conquest; Stalin's Holodomor and forced deportations, and parallels today

  • ★★ John gives a gentle reminder that language is not nationality. — 00:00:29
  • ★★ John says Ukraine's history as a nation-state begins in World War I: from 1917 it was for a time the independent Ukrainian People's Republic, forerunner of modern Ukraine. — 00:00:29
  • ★★ John says from 1917 to 1921 the Ukrainian People's Republic fought the Bolsheviks, who invaded in full force in January 1919, defeated it, and made Ukraine a Soviet republic. — 00:00:29
  • ★★ John says Joseph Stalin was one of the generals who led the Bolshevik invasion of Ukraine and cemented himself as Soviet leader in 1929. — 00:00:58
  • ★★ John says Stalin wanted to crush Ukrainian independence movements, which meant discouraging Ukrainian language and cultural identity, often by horrific means. — 00:01:27
  • ★★★ John says that in the Holodomor of 1932-33 millions of Ukrainians starved because Stalin's policies took food from Ukrainian homes and fields and sent it elsewhere in the Soviet Union. — 00:01:27
  • ★★ John says the famine, sometimes called the Terror Famine, was human choice, not blight or weather: the regime knew, and the policies were designed to punish resistant peasant farmers. — 00:01:56
  • ★★ John says it is hard to overstate the Holodomor's horrors: perhaps one in every eight Ukrainians died in two years. (hedged) — 00:02:26
  • ★★★ John says Stalin forcibly moved millions to discourage independence: almost all Crimean Tatars, Ukrainians sent to Siberian prison camps, and Russians moved into Ukraine and elsewhere. — 00:02:26
  • ★★ John says the deportations had a lasting effect on the ethnic, cultural and linguistic makeup of a huge swath of Eurasia, from Lithuania to Kazakhstan. — 00:02:55
  • ★★ John says Putin has repeatedly attacked the humanitarian corridors set up for civilians to flee besieged cities to western Ukraine or Europe. — 00:02:55 · Europe
  • ★★★ John says many Ukrainians see parallels with Stalin's deportations: Putin's offer of safety only in Russia feels to many fairly close to forced movement. — 00:03:24

00:03:53 — The 1991 independence referendum and Ukraine's cultural and energy ties with Russia

  • ★★★ John says that in 1991, as the Soviet Union broke up, 92% voted for independence in a referendum, with a majority in every region; Ukraine has been recognized for 30 years. — 00:03:53
  • ★★ John says the name Ukraine literally means borderlands. — 00:04:22
  • ★★ John says that through family ties (millions of Ukrainians have family in Russia) and economic necessity, Ukraine has kept somewhat close ties with Russia while trying to remain a country. — 00:04:22
  • ★★ John says Russia has much oil and gas: fossil fuels were about 60% of its exports in 2019, similar to Iran or the UAE. — 00:04:52
  • ★★ John says Ukraine has relied heavily on Russian energy imports, at times heavily subsidized by Russia to curry favor and influence. — 00:04:52
  • ★★★ John says the crux is that Ukraine can hardly have good relations with Russia because Putin has long maintained Ukraine should never have existed; only in Putin's head is it not a nation. — 00:04:52

00:05:21 — The crux: Putin denies Ukraine is a legitimate nation; the war is not about Russian speakers, denazification or NATO

  • ★★ John says Putin, directly or indirectly Russia's leader for over 20 years, does not view Ukraine as a legitimate nation. — 00:05:21
  • ★★★ John says Putin has written repeatedly that Ukraine lacks real statehood and was created entirely by Russia, and thinks all Ukrainians should speak Russian. — 00:05:50
  • ★★★ John says the war is certainly not about protecting Ukrainians who speak Russian as their first language. — 00:06:19
  • ★★ John says thousands of Russian-speaking civilians were killed by Putin's regime in the war's first two weeks. — 00:06:19
  • ★★★ John says the war is not about denazification of Ukraine, a nation with a democratically elected Jewish president. — 00:06:19
  • ★★★ John doesn't doubt Putin feels pressure from NATO or want to minimize the complexities, but doesn't think Russian soldiers closer to NATO missiles make Russia safer. — 00:06:19
  • ★★★ John says the war is primarily what Putin says: he believes Russia was robbed when Ukraine's borders were drawn and seeks to rectify it through violence, including mass killing of civilians. — 00:06:49

00:07:18 — His 2014 hope was naive; the suffering so far; Ukraine's right to exist in freedom

  • ★★ John says that just before the invasion Putin addressed Ukraine with a line widely recognized as quoting a song about sexually assaulting a corpse: Putin told the world what he would do. — 00:07:18

  • ★★★ John says the ending of his Ukraine video eight years ago, hoping history's long arc bends toward peace, was tragically naive. — 00:07:18

    “That was tragically naive.”

  • ★★ John doesn't know how the war will end, only that it has already caused tremendous suffering; he hopes for a way forward other than more suffering but doesn't know what it is. (unsure) — 00:07:18

  • ★★★ John says that less than three weeks into the invasion millions have been forced to flee their homes and thousands killed, including many children. — 00:07:18
  • ★★★ John says he knows no war will crush Ukrainian identity or language. — 00:07:18
  • ★★ John quotes a young Ukrainian's comment on his TikTok about Ukraine: Ukraine became Ukraine by never giving up on fighting for its freedom. — 00:07:18 · TikTok
  • ★★★ John says the war is not East versus West but about the right of Ukraine and its people to exist in freedom and independence, a right Putin wrongly denies. — 00:08:07
  • ★★★ John says Ukraine shouldn't need to be Russia-friendly or Europe-friendly but its own country, making its own choices with its borders and sovereignty protected. — 00:08:07 · Europe
  • ★★★ John believes the day of a secure, sovereign Ukraine will come, but fears for every day until it does. — 00:08:36

In the description and comments

  • ★★ The description corrects the video: Ukraine's official language is Ukrainian; 'national languages' was confusing, and he should have said 30% speak Russian as their first language. — video description
  • ★★ The description corrects the video: the etymology of 'Ukraine' is not settled as 'borderlands'; many Ukrainian linguists derive it from words meaning 'in my land'. — video description
  • ★ The description thanks Rosianna Halse Rojas for editing the script and helping source images. — video description · Rosianna Halse Rojas
  • ★ The description notes John misspelled Kyiv as Kiev and invites viewers to report further mistakes for amendment. — video description

Threads in this video

Where the stories that moved here went next

Mentioned

Central: Holodomor · Russian invasion of Ukraine · Ukraine · Vladimir Putin

Also: People: Joseph Stalin · Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Organizations: NATO · TikTok

Groups: Bolsheviks · Crimean Tatars

Concepts: fossil fuel · natural gas · Russian language · Ukrainian language

Places: Crimea · Europe · Iran · Kazakhstan · Lithuania · Russia · Siberia · Soviet Union · Ukrainian People's Republic · United Arab Emirates

Events: 1991 Ukrainian independence referendum · Deportation of the Crimean Tatars · dissolution of the Soviet Union · Ukrainian War of Independence · World War I

Only in the description or credits: Kyiv · Rosianna Halse Rojas

Also centred on Ukraine: Understanding Ukraine: The Problems Today and Some Historical Context

Also centred on Vladimir Putin: Trump and Russia: An Introduction to What We Know (and What We Don't)

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