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Trump and Russia: An Introduction to What We Know (and What We Don't)

2017-09-26 · explainer · John · 9:04 · watch on YouTube

Topic: US politics & society · mode: News analysis · tags: timely hook, self correction

John lays out what is confirmed about Russia's interference in the 2016 US election and the Trump campaign's Russian contacts: the meddling, the 'thing of value' law, Flynn, Comey's firing, Mueller and the Trump Jr. meeting. He argues much is suspicious but none of it is unambiguous evidence of collusion, and almost everything is still unknown.

What is said

The parts of the video and what is said in each (★ — how much it matters to the video).

00:00:00 — Topic and caveats: Russia means Putin's government; only doubly confirmed events, sources below

  • ★★ John notes Russia is a huge, diverse country of 144 million people; on election meddling he means specifically Putin and his government. — 00:00:10
  • ★★ Russia and the US are adversaries; Putin's regime has sought to undermine democracy worldwide and, in the US's view, invaded a sovereign nation. — 00:00:19 · United States
  • ★★ John will only cite events confirmed by their participants or reported independently by two news organizations, with sources below, because of online speculation. — 00:00:34

00:00:50 — What US intelligence says: Putin-overseen interference favouring Trump, three methods, the email information imbalance

  • ★★★ DHS and the ODNI have stated with high confidence that the Russian government sought to influence the US presidential election in Trump's favour over Clinton. — 00:00:50 · Donald Trump, United States
  • ★★★ They have also stated that Putin personally oversaw the operation, which John says should not be much of a surprise. — 00:01:01
  • ★★ It is unsurprising because Putin's regime has a history of swaying foreign elections and Trump's positions were much more favourable to Putin than Clinton's. — 00:01:08 · Donald Trump
  • ★★ As far back as 2007 Trump said Putin was doing a great job. — 00:01:16 · Donald Trump
  • ★★ The Trump campaign cut proposed language supporting Ukraine in its conflict with Russia from the official Republican Party platform. — 00:01:20 · Republican Party, Donald Trump
  • ★★★ Putin's regime meddled in at least three ways: a disinformation campaign of fake news stories, trying to breach election data in several states, and hacking the DNC and John Podesta's emails, released to WikiLeaks. — 00:01:27
  • ★★ WikiLeaks and the Russian government deny it, but US intelligence and both Republican and Democratic members of Congress overwhelmingly agree. — 00:01:44 · Republican Party, United States Congress
  • ★★★ The email hack created an information imbalance: the public saw many sleazy Democratic emails but no similar Republican ones, so by choosing whose emails we saw, Putin had much say in the election narrative. — 00:01:59 · Republican Party
  • ★★ John compares this to attacking candidate X's tax returns when candidate Y releases none, while agreeing political parties just shouldn't be sleazy. — 00:02:13

00:02:31 — Legality: collusion and the unsettled meaning of 'thing of value' in US election law

  • ★★★ None of this means the election was illegitimate (it wasn't) or that Trump didn't win (he did). — 00:02:31 · United States presidential election, Donald Trump
  • ★★★ Benefiting from a foreign government's propaganda initiative is not a crime, but colluding with that government is, probably. (hedged) — 00:02:36
  • ★★★ US election law says a foreign national cannot make a contribution or donation of any thing of value in connection with a US election. — 00:02:44
  • ★★★ It also says no American can solicit or knowingly accept a donation or thing of value from a foreign national. — 00:02:54 · United States
  • ★★ John expects to hear 'thing of value' a lot in coming months, partly because the courts haven't clearly decided what it means. (hedged) — 00:03:02
  • ★★ Receiving damning information about an opponent from a foreign national and sharing it is probably receiving a thing of value, but not established; knowing about or arranging such help raises further questions. (hedged) — 00:03:09

00:03:33 — Trump associates' Russia ties: Manafort, Caputo, Sessions, Flynn; Trump asks Comey for loyalty and to drop the Flynn investigation

  • ★★ Many people in Trump's campaign had past relationships with Putin's regime. — 00:03:33 · Donald Trump
  • ★★ Trump's one-time campaign manager Paul Manafort received around $30 million working for Oleg Deripaska, seen as one of Putin's closest business confidants. — 00:03:37 · Donald Trump
  • ★★ Early Trump adviser Michael Caputo had worked on a Russian campaign to improve Putin's image among Americans. — 00:03:46 · Donald Trump
  • ★★ Attorney General Jeff Sessions had to recuse himself from the Russia investigation after his undisclosed meetings with Russian ambassador Sergei Kislyak were revealed. — 00:03:51
  • ★★ Michael Flynn, Trump's first national security adviser, failed to disclose payments from an arm of the Russian government, which is illegal for former military officers. — 00:04:00 · Donald Trump
  • ★★ Flynn talked several times to Kislyak during the transition, one call falling on the day the US announced new sanctions on Russia. — 00:04:11 · United States
  • ★★ Flynn denied discussing sanctions on that call, but there was evidence to the contrary because US intelligence routinely monitors Kislyak's calls. — 00:04:25
  • ★★ Discussing sanctions on that call was possibly illegal: Flynn was not yet national security adviser but was trying to negotiate foreign policy. (hedged) — 00:04:34
  • ★★★ The day after learning Flynn had lied about discussing sanctions, Trump asked FBI Director James Comey for loyalty. — 00:04:42 · Donald Trump
  • ★★★ The day after Flynn resigned, Trump asked Comey to drop the Flynn investigation altogether. — 00:04:50 · Donald Trump
  • ★★★ This is alarming because the Justice Department and the FBI are supposed to operate independently of the White House. — 00:04:56
  • ★★ FBI directors serve a 10-year term partly so they stay above party politics and are not beholden to one leader. — 00:05:03
  • ★★★ Trump asking Comey to drop the Flynn investigation was a significant breach of protocol. — 00:05:10 · Donald Trump
  • ★★ Some have argued it amounts to obstruction of justice, which John says is the charge Richard Nixon was eventually impeached for. — 00:05:14

00:05:20 — Comey fired; special counsel Mueller appointed, grand juries

  • ★★ Months later Trump fired Comey; the White House first cited his handling of the Clinton email case, then Trump acknowledged it was mostly about the Russia collusion investigation. — 00:05:20 · Donald Trump
  • ★★★ If firing Comey was meant to end the investigation it failed: days later the Justice Department appointed special counsel Robert Mueller to look into collusion. — 00:05:35
  • ★★ Mueller is reportedly working with at least two grand juries to decide who, if anyone, should be charged. — 00:05:50

00:05:58 — The Trump Jr. meeting with a Kremlin-connected lawyer; Kushner's undisclosed meetings and back channel

  • ★★★ The most serious evidence of collusion so far is a meeting with a Kremlin-connected Russian lawyer attended by Donald Trump Jr., Paul Manafort and Jared Kushner. — 00:05:58 · Donald Trump
  • ★★ Trump Jr. was emailed that the lawyer had incriminating information on Clinton as part of Russia's government support for Trump, and replied 'if it's what you say, I love it'. — 00:06:09 · Donald Trump
  • ★★★ That should have been a huge red flag; the correct response is to refuse anything of value from a foreign national, especially as part of a foreign government's support. — 00:06:22
  • ★★ The meeting stayed secret for over a year until The New York Times reported it in July 2017. — 00:06:39 · The New York Times
  • ★★ Trump Jr. first said the meeting was about adoption, then a day later that it was about Clinton but the lawyer had no meaningful information. — 00:06:46 · Donald Trump
  • ★★ Even so, some legal scholars think the meeting itself was illegal, depending on the definitions of soliciting and thing of value. — 00:06:54
  • ★★ Kushner failed to mention this and several other meetings with Russian officials on his initial security clearance application. — 00:07:02
  • ★★ Kushner also apparently asked the Russian government for a back channel to Moscow that US intelligence couldn't hear. (hedged) — 00:07:08

00:07:17 — Assessment: suspicious lies, but no unambiguous evidence of collusion; Trump's strange behaviour toward Putin is not illegal

  • ★★★ Much of this is suspicious: Trump Jr., Kushner, Manafort and Flynn have all been caught lying about their contacts with the Russian government. — 00:07:17 · Donald Trump
  • ★★★ None of it is unambiguous evidence of collusion or cooperation with foreign nationals. — 00:07:26
  • ★★★ None of what is publicly known involves the president himself, except his asking Comey to drop the investigation. — 00:07:31 · Donald Trump
  • ★★ Trump's behaviour toward Russia has been strange: as president he met Putin privately without a US interpreter, which is extremely unusual. — 00:07:38 · Donald Trump
  • ★★ Trump has gone to great lengths not to criticise Putin and refused to publicly acknowledge or condemn the interference. — 00:07:48 · Donald Trump
  • ★★★ None of that is illegal, and connecting the dots can give a very misleading picture when there are few dots. — 00:07:55

00:08:02 — What we know and what we don't; follow the story but beware confirming biases; sign-off

  • ★★★ What we know: Russia sought to influence the election for Trump, at least one campaign member knew, and several people close to Trump hid or lied about interactions with Russian nationals. — 00:08:02 · Donald Trump
  • ★★★ What we don't know is almost everything: what was discussed, whether any American accepted a thing of value or colluded, even what a thing of value is. (unsure) — 00:08:22 · United States
  • ★★★ John says it's important to follow the story for its big implications for American democracy, while remembering we are in its middle and don't know how it ends. (hedged) — 00:08:39 · United States
  • ★★ Those seeking to confirm their biases will find plenty on both sides, but the whole truth isn't known yet; John hopes it will be someday. — 00:08:51

In the description and comments

  • ★★ The description corrects the video: Nixon resigned before he was impeached. — video description
  • ★★ For an overview, John recommends a very helpful timeline of events in the Russia collusion investigation and calls the Wikipedia article on Russian interference in the 2016 election very good. — video description · Wikipedia
  • ★★ John thanks Rosianna Halse Rojas for fact-checking and research assistance on the video. — video description · Rosianna Halse Rojas

Threads in this video

Where the stories that moved here went next

Mentioned

Central: Donald Trump · Russia · Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections · Vladimir Putin

Also: People: Donald Trump Jr. · Hillary Clinton · James Comey · Jared Kushner · Jeff Sessions · John Podesta · Michael Caputo · Michael Flynn · Oleg Deripaska · Paul Manafort · Richard Nixon · Robert Mueller · Sergey Kislyak

Organizations: Democratic National Committee · Democratic Party · Federal Bureau of Investigation · Office of the Director of National Intelligence · Republican Party · The New York Times · United States Congress · United States Department of Homeland Security · United States Department of Justice · White House · WikiLeaks

Concepts: campaign finance · confirmation bias · democracy · misinformation · obstruction of justice · political party

Places: Moscow · Ukraine · United States

Events: United States presidential election

Only in the description or credits: Rosianna Halse Rojas · Wikipedia

Also centred on Russia: PEANUT BUTTER FACE (while discussing the Georgia-Russia War) · Syria in Five Minutes · Understanding Ukraine: The Problems Today and Some Historical Context

Also centred on Vladimir Putin: Ukraine and Russia: What Caused the War?

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