John: the overall US federal budget is unlikely to be cut while attention stays on tiny spending categories (2025)
prediction · status: unresolved · last event: predicted (2025-04-08) · owner: John
In April 2025 John predicted that a cut to the overall US federal budget was unlikely while everyone stayed focused on tiny spending categories.
Told alongside: John: interest on the US federal debt will go up again as spending rises and revenue falls (2025)
About: Government spending
| date | event | what | video |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-08 | predicted | John says a cut to the overall federal budget may eventually come, but has not yet and is unlikely while everyone focuses on tiny spending categories. (hedged) | DOGE Is Not Cutting Government Spending 00:02:26 |
What is said about it
7 statements, by date (the events above are the turns of the thread; these are the details).
- 2025-04-08 · DOGE Is Not Cutting Government Spending — John says that in each of the Trump administration's first three months, despite mass federal layoffs and cuts to foreign aid and science research, federal spending exceeded 2024 and 2023, by a growing margin. — 00:00:00
- 2025-04-08 · DOGE Is Not Cutting Government Spending — recommendation: The description points viewers to a New York Times page for tracking US government spending. — video description
- 2025-04-08 · DOGE Is Not Cutting Government Spending — John says all federal employees combined account for only about 5% of US federal government spending. — 00:00:58
- 2025-04-08 · DOGE Is Not Cutting Government Spending — John says cuts to foreign aid do not meaningfully affect overall federal spending, but being politically divisive they draw attention that makes them look like significant cuts. — 00:01:27
- 2025-04-08 · DOGE Is Not Cutting Government Spending — John says the US spends about 21% of federal money on Social Security, 15% on Medicare, 13% on national defense and 13% on Medicaid. — 00:01:27
- 2025-04-08 · DOGE Is Not Cutting Government Spending — John says even very minor spending increases for big-ticket items like defense mean the US is spending more in 2025 than in 2024. — 00:01:56
- 2025-04-08 · DOGE Is Not Cutting Government Spending — John concludes that cutting foreign aid and science grants has not reduced overall spending, which is rising, and cannot meaningfully reduce it because they are too small a share. — 00:03:53