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DOGE Is Not Cutting Government Spending

2025-04-08 · explainer · John · 4:24 · watch on YouTube

Topic: US politics & society · mode: News analysis · tags: timely hook

John argues that despite DOGE's layoffs and cuts to foreign aid and science, US federal spending and the deficit are rising, because the items cut are tiny shares of the budget; the cuts are a political choice, not austerity.

What is said

The parts of the video and what is said in each (★ — how much it matters to the video).

00:00:00 — The misconception that DOGE is shrinking government: spending and the deficit are rising despite layoffs and cuts

  • ★★★ John says one of the broadest current misconceptions about the US government is that the Trump administration is shrinking the federal government through DOGE. — 00:00:00 · Donald Trump
  • ★★★ John says that in each of the Trump administration's first three months, despite mass federal layoffs and cuts to foreign aid and science research, federal spending exceeded 2024 and 2023, by a growing margin. — 00:00:00 · Donald Trump
  • ★★★ John concludes that the federal government is getting bigger and more expensive, and the federal deficit is also increasing. — 00:00:29
  • ★★ John says he disagrees with the presupposition of both those who praise and those who condemn DOGE for cutting the deficit and spending. — 00:00:29
  • ★★ John grants that tens of thousands of people are losing their jobs and there have been severe cuts to foreign aid and science spending. — 00:00:29

00:00:58 — How federal money is spent: employees and foreign aid are tiny shares; the budget's big-ticket items

  • ★★★ John says all federal employees combined account for only about 5% of US federal government spending. — 00:00:58
  • ★★ John says even losing 10% of federal employees, far more than fired so far, would cut the budget by only about 0.5%. — 00:00:58
  • ★★★ John says foreign aid, including USAID, altogether accounts for only about one half of one cent of the US tax dollar. — 00:00:58
  • ★★ John says George W. Bush's program PEPFAR has saved tens of millions of lives. — 00:00:58
  • ★★★ John says PEPFAR, all US money for the Global Fund and all of USAID together are only about 0.5% of the US federal budget. — 00:01:27
  • ★★★ John says cuts to foreign aid do not meaningfully affect overall federal spending, but being politically divisive they draw attention that makes them look like significant cuts. — 00:01:27
  • ★★★ John says the US spends about 21% of federal money on Social Security, 15% on Medicare, 13% on national defense and 13% on Medicaid. — 00:01:27
  • ★★★ John says 13% goes to interest on the debt (set to rise again), making 75% with the big four; veterans' benefits are 6%, unemployment, federal retirement and nutrition about 11%, and USAID sits in 3% other. — 00:01:56
  • ★★ John says even very minor spending increases for big-ticket items like defense mean the US is spending more in 2025 than in 2024. — 00:01:56
  • ★★ John says what is being cut is not expensive, though very significant: it saved tens of millions of lives and fueled research that saved tens of millions more. — 00:02:26
  • ★★ John says the US is also collecting fewer taxes, another reason the budget deficit and federal debt are growing faster than last year (2024). — 00:02:26
  • ★★ John says a cut to the overall federal budget may eventually come, but has not yet and is unlikely while everyone focuses on tiny spending categories. (hedged) — 00:02:26

00:02:55 — The cuts are a political choice, not austerity; real austerity, the rent-and-dinner analogy, conclusion and sign-off

  • ★★★ John says you can't reach a smaller budget by firing federal employees or canceling politically divisive small projects like heating support for low-income families: there isn't enough money in them. — 00:02:55
  • ★★★ John says the cuts are made to look and sound like cutting, not serious DOGE austerity to lower debt or deficit, but a political choice to enact a political worldview one may agree or disagree with. — 00:02:55
  • ★★ John says actually cutting the deficit would require real austerity measures, probably both decreasing spending and increasing taxes. (hedged) — 00:03:24
  • ★★ John says countries in actual austerity cut spending on big-ticket items like national defense and benefits for seniors, and also raise taxes. — 00:03:24
  • ★★★ John says fighting about whether to cut foreign aid is a political argument, not an economic one. — 00:03:24
  • ★★ John likens it to spending $10,000 a month on rent with your spouse and then arguing over whether you can afford one $50 dinner a month: the problem is not the dinner. (playful) — 00:03:53
  • ★★★ John concludes that cutting foreign aid and science grants has not reduced overall spending, which is rising, and cannot meaningfully reduce it because they are too small a share. — 00:03:53

In the description and comments

Threads in this video

Where the stories that moved here went next

Mentioned

Central: Austerity · Department of Government Efficiency · Federal government of the United States · Government spending

Also: People: Donald Trump · George W. Bush

Organizations: Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria · United States Agency for International Development · United States Department of Defense

Concepts: Development aid · government budget balance · government debt · tax

Policies: Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program · Medicaid · Medicare · President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief · Social Security · Unemployment benefits

Only in the description or credits: The New York Times

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Also centred on Government spending: 5 Ways to Actually Understand Very Large Numbers

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