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The Golden Gate Bridge Didn't Collapse!!

2014-01-03 · list · Hank · 3:59 · watch on YouTube

Topic: Global development · mode: Explainer · tags: self promotion, community lore

Replying to doubters of John's good-news video, Hank argues that psychology, probability, entropy, the gradualness of good and confirmation bias make the world seem worse than it is; the world is okay, so be cautious but not pessimistic.

What is said

The parts of the video and what is said in each (★ — how much it matters to the video).

00:00:00 — Mock news bulletin: the Golden Gate Bridge did not collapse today

  • ★★ In a mock news bulletin Hank reports that the Golden Gate Bridge did not collapse today: 110,000 vehicles crossed its 8,000 feet, after more than 76 years of weather and vibration. (playful) — 00:00:03

00:00:35 — Comments doubting John's good news; why it seems hard to believe the world is improving

  • ★★ Hank says that besides the good news there is bad news: many people seem physically incapable of believing that there is good news in the world. — 00:00:35 · progress
  • ★★ Hank says many comments on John's video explained his good news away (divorce down only because of the economy, infant mortality only because of abortions, internet speeds); he answers 'Nope'. — 00:00:45
  • ★★★ Hank grants that it does seem hard to believe the world is getting better, and says there are reasons for that beyond cable news. — 00:01:02 · progress

00:01:11 — Reasons 1-2: psychology (bad weighs twice as much) and probability (bad news from seven billion people)

  • ★★★ Reason one, psychology: Hank says studies show we weigh bad things happening to us about twice as heavily as good things, so we need twice as much good to think the world good. — 00:01:12
  • ★★★ Reason two, probability: Hank says news of only you and the 1,000 people nearest you would hold about one murder per lifetime, but across seven billion people terrible things happen every moment. — 00:01:25
  • ★★ Hank says terrible, unusual events are what our brains want to know about in case they affect us, so we pay attention to all of them, and it is too much. — 00:01:36

00:01:49 — Reason 3: entropy; keeping things standing is an uncelebrated victory, so good news is boring

  • ★★★ Reason three, entropy: Hank says things fall apart, destroying is easy and building hard, so every day the Golden Gate Bridge does not collapse is an uncelebrated victory. — 00:01:50
  • ★★ Hank says mostly bad things do not happen, so we are surrounded by boring good news we ignore, since our brains focus on the unusual, not on gas at the gas station. — 00:02:04

00:02:24 — Reason 4: good is gradual, bad comes in spikes (kidney-gun gag)

  • ★★★ Reason four: Hank says good is gradual while bad happens in spikes; markets crash only downward and there is no good equivalent of a terrorist attack. — 00:02:24

    “Good is gradual”

00:02:54 — Reason 5: confirmation bias, and why commenters poked holes in John's video

  • ★★★ Reason five, bias: Hank says these factors pile up until we believe only bad things happen, and confirmation bias then makes us take in only information that reinforces it. — 00:02:55
  • ★★ Hank thinks confirmation bias is why many people tried to poke holes in John's last video: it did not fit their worldview that the world is going downhill. (hedged) — 00:03:05

00:03:19 — The world is okay, but not all good: inequality, incarceration, climate change; be cautious, not pessimistic

  • ★★★ Hank concludes that in fact the world is okay. — 00:03:19 · progress
  • ★★ Hank says it is not all good news: income inequality in the US is ridiculous. — 00:03:25 · economic inequality, United States
  • ★★ Hank says the US has the highest incarceration rate in the world. — 00:03:25 · United States
  • ★★ Hank says global climate change is going to threaten the stability of everything. — 00:03:29 · climate change
  • ★★★ Hank says he has nothing against caution and we should be cautious, but not pessimistic, because pessimism will hold us back. — 00:03:35 · optimism

00:03:40 — Sign-off; Hanklerfish drawings; Crash Course Psychology announced; subscribe to Grace's channel

  • ★ Hank says he drew the things shown in this video on the backs of Hanklerfish drawings, so people who got a Hanklerfish drawing may receive one of them. — 00:03:41 · Hanklerfish
  • ★★ Hank announces that for the next season of Crash Course he will do Crash Course Psychology. — 00:03:49 · Crash Course
  • ★ Hank asks viewers to subscribe to Grace's new channel, youtube.com/itsgrace. — 00:03:52 · Grace Helbig

Humor (significant)

  • In a mock 'special report' Hank solemnly announces that the Golden Gate Bridge did not collapse and 110,000 vehicles crossed it safely. — 00:00:31

    “The death count at this point is unknown, but is thought to be zero.”

  • Arguing there is no good equivalent of a terrorist attack, Hank imagines a gun that shoots healthy kidneys into late-stage diabetics. — 00:02:44

    “I got four now!”

Threads in this video

Where the stories that moved here went next

Mentioned

Central: confirmation bias · Entropy · negativity bias · progress

Also: People: Grace Helbig

Projects: Crash Course

Works: Hanklerfish · Sherlock

Concepts: climate change · declinism · economic inequality · mass incarceration · optimism

Places: Golden Gate Bridge · United States

Myths: unicorn

fact: infant mortality rate

Only in the description or credits: loss aversion

Also centred on confirmation bias: John Green is an IDIOT! And so are you. · The Liger Delusion · The Assassination Attempt and the Comfort of Certainty

Also centred on negativity bias: A Few Of My Favorite Things · Optimism is Not Insane · When to Attack a Moose · i said yep

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