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The Liger Delusion

2018-05-22 · letter vlog · John · 3:50 · watch on YouTube

Topic: US politics & society (also: Personal life) · mode: Personal essay · tags: timely hook

Using a dream in which he reasoned his way to two escaped ligers in his backyard, John argues that much political discourse suffers from the 'liger delusion': starting from the conclusion and finding explanations, believing allegations that confirm one's worldview, and treating opponents as sheeple; he resolves to stop speculating ahead of the facts but does not know how.

What is said

The parts of the video and what is said in each (★ — how much it matters to the video).

00:00:00 — John's dream of two ligers in his backyard and how he reasoned from the conclusion

  • ★★ John dreamt that two ligers, the offspring of a male lion and a female tiger, were walking through his backyard. — 00:00:00
  • ★★ In the dream John reasoned it out: his yard often has wildlife, the ligers were probably siblings escaped from captivity, and his wooded yard offers food, mostly four million chipmunks. (playful) — 00:00:10 · Indianapolis, Indiana
  • ★★★ John says the problem was that his investigation began with the conclusion that there were ligers and worked back to the story, instead of considering they were deer or that he was dreaming. — 00:00:48

00:01:05 — The liger delusion in political discourse; conspiracy theories; the Elliott Broidy example

  • ★ John cites his friend Amy Krouse Rosenthal's correct remark that nothing is less interesting than other people's dreams, and apologizes. — 00:01:05

  • ★★★ John says the 'liger delusion' is at the heart of a lot of contemporary discourse, especially around politics. (hedged) — 00:01:12 · Liger delusion

    “the Liger delusion is at the heart of a lot of contemporary discourse, especially around politics”

  • ★★ You start with what you know is true (Republicans are crooks serving wealthy donors, or Democrats are crooks wanting government control of everything) and then look for the how and why. — 00:01:17 · Republican Party

  • ★★★ It can be hard to know when you believe a conspiracy theory, because they are sometimes true and because the closer you look at anything, the more you see. — 00:01:34
  • ★★ John says it is known that Republican donor Elliott Broidy paid a woman over a million dollars not to discuss their alleged affair. — 00:01:55 · Republican Party
  • ★★ A conspiracy theory, which may prove true, holds that the affair was really between the woman and Donald Trump, and that Broidy covered it up and made the payment. — 00:02:02 · Donald Trump
  • ★★ Looking for explanations, you find them: Broidy has profited tremendously from the Trump presidency and has a history of covering up affairs for his friends. — 00:02:13 · Donald Trump
  • ★★★ John stops himself: none of that means Broidy covered up an affair for Trump. — 00:02:21 · Donald Trump

00:02:26 — Conspiracies on the right, sheeple, and believing what confirms one's worldview

  • ★★ The same happens on the right, where conspiracy theories from Benghazi to Pizzagate are presumed true by many. — 00:02:26
  • ★★★ John worries many believe that their 'we' sees the real reality while those who disagree are mere sheeple, a term that literally dehumanizes others; 'wake up' implies only opponents fall for the liger delusion. — 00:02:30 · Sheeple, Liger delusion
  • ★★★ John has found that he is far more likely to believe an allegation true or important if it confirms his worldview, and false or irrelevant if it challenges it. — 00:02:52

00:03:06 — 'We don't yet know all the facts, but…'; John resolves to stop speculating but doesn't know how; sign-off

  • ★★ TV news, political radio and podcasts say 'we don't yet know all the facts, but' and follow it with speculation or implication. — 00:03:06 · sensationalism
  • ★★★ John tells Hank he has to stop beginning with the conclusion, stop speculating ahead of the story, wait for the facts, and stop saying 'but' after 'we don't yet know all the facts'. — 00:03:22
  • ★★★ John says this is where he would find reasons for hope and make a call to action, but he doesn't know how. (unsure) — 00:03:34
  • ★★ John thinks being aware of our conspiratorial instincts can help, but he doesn't know how to escape the liger delusion. (hedged) — 00:03:40 · Liger delusion

Threads in this video

Mentioned

Central: confirmation bias · conspiracy theory · Liger · Liger delusion · motivated reasoning

Also: People: Amy Krouse Rosenthal · Donald Trump · Elliott Broidy

Organizations: Democratic Party · Republican Party

Concepts: dehumanization · dream · Pizzagate conspiracy theory · sensationalism

Places: Indiana · Indianapolis

Events: 2012 Benghazi attack

Memes: Sheeple

Also centred on confirmation bias: John Green is an IDIOT! And so are you. · The Golden Gate Bridge Didn't Collapse!! · The Assassination Attempt and the Comfort of Certainty

Also centred on conspiracy theory: Top 5 Ridiculous Conspiracy Theories · Top 5 Actual Conspiracies · My Ballot Made Me Angry

Also centred on motivated reasoning: You Cannot Trust Yourself (Hank's End of the Year Worries) · How We Form Opinions

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