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John Predicts the Future!

2020-10-14 · letter vlog · Hank · 3:57 · watch on YouTube

Topic: Philosophy & meaning (also: Nerdfighteria, US politics & society) · mode: Personal essay · tags: timely hook, calendar ritual

Grading John's eight-day predictions (weather a miss, COVID cases right, shirt sales and the AFC Wimbledon result wrong, the debate and the fading news right), Hank disagrees that the pandemic was an unknown unknown and argues our lives are governed by unknown unknowns; looking back eight days shows how little we know about today, and that all of it has been survivable.

What is said

The parts of the video and what is said in each (★ — how much it matters to the video).

00:00:00 — Grading John's predictions: Indianapolis weather, COVID cases, Pizza John shirt sales, AFC Wimbledon

  • ★★ Hank expected John's video predicting eight days ahead not to be interesting, since that's too short, but found it hugely interesting. — 00:00:00 · John Green
  • ★★ Hank says Indianapolis was not really unseasonably warm, only about three degrees warmer than usual, so he calls John's prediction a miss. — 00:00:00 · Indianapolis
  • ★★ Hank adds that it is unseasonably warm most days in most places: 2020 is one of the warmest years of the last hundred, or one of the coolest of the next hundred. (playful) — 00:00:29 · climate change
  • ★★ Hank reports US new COVID cases rose week to week from 41,601 to 45,791, almost exactly 10%, so John's prediction was a win. — 00:00:29 · COVID-19 pandemic, United States
  • ★ Hank says it is more a win for epidemiological modelers, and more a loss for everyone. (playful) — 00:00:29
  • ★★ Hank says they blew John's shirt prediction out of the water, selling more than 95, an example of how imagining the future affects the future. — 00:00:58 · Pizza John
  • ★★ Hank reports AFC Wimbledon had a single shot on target against Swindon Town, and it went in. — 00:00:58 · AFC Wimbledon

00:01:28 — The debate turned into dueling town halls; the President's hospitalization faded; Congress pushes a Supreme Court justice

  • ★★ That was the game's only goal, so AFC Wimbledon beat Swindon Town and are now in 10th place. — 00:01:28 · AFC Wimbledon
  • ★★ Hank calls John's prediction that the upcoming debate would be much discussed a great prediction. — 00:01:28
  • ★★ Because of COVID a virtual town hall debate was planned; Donald Trump dropped out, Joe Biden decided to do the town hall alone, then Trump scheduled a different town hall. — 00:01:28 · COVID-19 pandemic, Donald Trump
  • ★ Asking why Trump's town hall was at the exact same time, Hank jokes that maybe his favorite debate format is talking over his opponent the whole time. (joke, hedged) — 00:01:57 · Donald Trump
  • ★★ Hank says John was right: the President's COVID hospitalization is somehow no longer a big deal in our minds. — 00:01:57 · Donald Trump, COVID-19 pandemic
  • ★★ Instead, Hank says sarcastically, the vital topic now is Congress ramming through a Supreme Court justice rather than thinking about COVID relief. (playful) — 00:01:57 · United States Congress, COVID-19 pandemic

00:02:26 — Cause for alarm; the pandemic as a known unknown; history governed by unknown unknowns; what looking back eight days teaches

  • ★★ Hank tells John there is, and continues to be, cause for alarm. — 00:02:26
  • ★★★ Hank disagrees with John that the pandemic was an unknown unknown: it was a known unknown, something we knew could happen. — 00:02:26 · COVID-19 pandemic, John Green
  • ★★★ Hank's example of an unknown unknown is mask wearing becoming politicized: foreseeable in hindsight, but no one would have thought to ask the question. — 00:02:26
  • ★★★ Hank says our lives and history are governed by unknown unknowns: the rise of social media, climate change and the internal combustion engine all once were. — 00:02:55 · social media, climate change
  • ★★★ Looking at today from eight days ago showed Hank that what we're caught up in now isn't what we'll be caught up in next week (week of 19 October 2020), which doesn't seem true but is. — 00:03:24
  • ★★ Hank says there's a ton about today we don't know: we think we know today best, but what we know best is about a year ago. — 00:03:24
  • ★★★ Hank realized that a great deal has happened and continues to happen, and all of it has been, for the species, ultimately survivable. — 00:03:24

In the description and comments

Threads in this video

Where the stories that moved here went next

Mentioned

Central: unknown unknowns

Also: People: Donald Trump · Joe Biden

Organizations: AFC Wimbledon · Supreme Court of the United States · Swindon Town FC · United States Congress

Terms: Pizza John

Concepts: climate change · internal combustion engine · social media

Places: Indianapolis · United States

Events: 2020 United States presidential debates · COVID-19 pandemic

Only in the description or credits: Brotherhood 2.0 · Pizzamas

Also centred on unknown unknowns: Me from the Past: A Pizzamas Miracle

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