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How Actually Crazy is This Mess?

2025-04-11 (said on 2025-04-10 — implied: date said in the video; uploaded 1 day later) · list · Hank · 18:43 · watch on YouTube

Topic: US politics & society (also: Economics, World affairs, Global development) · mode: News analysis · tags: timely hook

Hank ranks the oddities of Donald Trump's Liberation Day tariffs in a YouTube-style tier list (the trade-deficit formula, the penguin islands, Vietnam, contradictory goals, the pause) and argues the real damage is lost stability and trust, encouraged insider trading and an oligarchic power grab through company exemptions.

What is said

The parts of the video and what is said in each (★ — how much it matters to the video).

00:00:00 — Greeting; Trump-era news is too much to track, so a tier list of the Liberation Day tariff story

  • ★★ Hank says Trump-era news is too much to keep track of, so he sorts the weird parts of the Liberation Day tariff story into a YouTube tier list by level of crazy. — 00:00:00 · Donald Trump, tier list

00:00:29 — 'Reciprocal' tariffs computed from trade deficits; the administration's equation

  • ★★★ Hank says the 'reciprocal' tariffs were not calculated from other countries' tariffs and barriers: the administration took each trade deficit, called it the tariff rate and cut it in half. — 00:01:04
  • ★★ Hank puts calling the tariffs 'reciprocal' in E tier: not crazy, just dishonest misrepresentation. — 00:01:04
  • ★★ Hank says two terms of the administration's tariff equation cancel out, so it is just the trade-deficit calculation; he rates this B tier. — 00:01:33
  • ★★ Hank says the equation swaps two terms, giving a negative number: not crazy, just bad math. — 00:02:03

00:02:32 — Penguin-only islands on the list, Howard Lutnick's defence, Northern Ireland and Brexit

  • ★★ Hank says the tariff list includes a group of islands with no people, populated only by penguins. — 00:02:32
  • ★★ Hank says the apparent mistake shows little attention was paid to a policy with tremendous global consequences; he rates the penguins A tier. — 00:02:32
  • ★★ Hank says Howard Lutnick defended listing the islands as closing loopholes where goods are routed through a lower-tariff country before export. — 00:03:01
  • ★★ Hank calls Lutnick's defence mostly dishonest cover for a mistake and puts him in C tier. — 00:03:01
  • ★★ Hank says the UK got half the EU's tariff, and since Northern Ireland trades as part of both, it has both a 10% and a 20% tariff, an A-tier loophole. — 00:04:00 · United Kingdom
  • ★ Hank jokes that everyone in the EU would route goods through Northern Ireland before exporting them to the US. (playful) — 00:04:00

00:04:29 — Japan, China and South Korea's trade deal; Vietnam's top tariff; 10% tariffs on surplus countries

  • ★★★ Hank says Japan, China and South Korea, reacting to US instability, signed a significant trade agreement, though they dislike each other and historically traded through Western partners. — 00:04:29 · China
  • ★★ Hank calls the three-country deal historically S-tier crazy: the US pushed rivals to settle their problems, which is great for China. — 00:04:58 · China
  • ★★★ Hank says Vietnam got the highest average tariff, 90%, though it is not a major high-tech or strategic competitor. — 00:04:58
    • a number in question (doubtful): "90%" — check against the recording
  • ★★★ Hank says the large deficit with Vietnam reflects a working trade relationship and Vietnam helps diversify supply chains from China, so giving it the harshest tariff is S-tier crazy. — 00:05:39 · China
  • ★★ Hank says the policy, for all its impact, seems not to have been well thought through. (playful) — 00:06:07
  • ★★ Hank says the countries given 10% tariffs are ones the US has trade surpluses with, yet they are still given a base rate; he rates it A tier. — 00:06:36

00:07:02 — USMCA torn up; Peter Navarro and his invented economist Ron Vara

  • ★★ Hank says Trump tore up the USMCA, which replaced NAFTA and was signed in his own first term, to put new tariffs on Canada and Mexico. — 00:07:02 · Donald Trump, Canada
  • ★★ Hank says Trump's adviser Peter Navarro is a big advocate of tariffs. — 00:07:02 · Donald Trump
  • ★★ Hank says support for tariffs is not universal in the administration: Elon Musk recently called Navarro a moron. — 00:07:48
  • ★★★ Hank says Navarro's books cite a pro-tariff economist, Ron Vara, an anagram of Navarro who does not exist. — 00:07:48
  • ★★ Hank says the trade deficits were calculated on goods only, not services, which the US provides a lot of abroad. — 00:07:48
  • ★ Hank thinks a trade deficit should include everything the US does, but rates this D tier. — 00:07:48

00:08:35 — Goods-only deficits, cost of living, contradictory reasons, the pause and the stock-market headlines

  • ★★ Hank says cost of living got Trump elected, and a giant tax on many goods will raise it. — 00:08:35 · Donald Trump
  • ★★ Hank feels the cost of living, the key election issue, is oddly no longer what people are thinking about; D tier. — 00:08:35
  • ★★★ Hank says Trump's reasons for the tariffs contradict each other: permanent revenue for tax cuts, a negotiating tool that must be lifted, and bringing manufacturing back. — 00:09:04 · Donald Trump
  • ★★ Hank rates the contradictory reasons B tier because they keep anyone from knowing what is going on, which is bad for most people. — 00:10:02
  • ★★★ Hank says Trump paused the tariffs nine days after imposing them, while the trade war with China continues; some countries seem to have offered concessions, others did not. — 00:10:02 · Donald Trump, China
  • ★★ Hank says pausing the tariffs was good, preventing the economic collapse that seemed coming: E tier, the sanest thing in the story. — 00:10:39
  • ★★ Hank calls 'biggest stock-market gain ever' headlines A-tier crazy: a day is an arbitrary unit and retirement accounts are still about 6% lower than last week (week of 31 March 2025). (hedged) — 00:10:39

00:11:08 — Why the result is not positive: lost stability and lost trust

  • ★★ Hank says trillions of dollars of stock-market value have evaporated since April 2nd despite the pause. — 00:11:08
  • ★★ Hank says his couple of businesses (about 100 employees), even the one not import-sensitive, now hesitate to invest in new product lines or shows because the economy is unclear. — 00:11:37
  • ★★★ Hank says economies thrive on stability, and intentionally introducing instability for no apparent gain is S-tier crazy. — 00:12:07
  • ★★ Hank says it makes sense that the US buys more than it sells: it is the third biggest country and the largest economy. — 00:12:36 · United States
  • ★★ Hank says Trump treats trade deficits as being stolen from and sees everything as winning or losing, with no mutual benefit. — 00:12:36 · Donald Trump
  • ★★★ Hank says this destroys trust between the US and the world, isolating it, opening the way for more trustworthy partners, destabilising the global economy and weakening US strength: S tier. — 00:13:05 · United States

00:13:34 — Trump's 'great time to buy' post, insider trading, company exemptions and oligarchy

  • ★★★ Hank says that just before pausing the tariffs Trump posted on Truth Social that this is a great time to buy, signing the post. — 00:13:34 · Donald Trump
  • ★★★ Hank says insider trading is theft: you use information others lack to buy from them, and the gain would have been theirs. — 00:14:22
  • ★★★ Hank says posting that while knowing he would move the market feels like encouraging theft: S-tier crazy. — 00:14:22 · Donald Trump
  • ★★ Hank's only explanation is that Trump values loyalty to himself above loyalty to the country, the Constitution or the rule of law. (speculative) — 00:14:22 · Donald Trump
  • ★★ Hank says bets on a market rise spiked just before the announcement, indicating people with insider knowledge of the administration took money from those without it. (hedged) — 00:15:02
  • ★★ Hank says such trading is illegal, not crazy, and rational if you think your boss runs the Justice Department and legality no longer matters. — 00:15:31
  • ★★ Hank cites a headline that Trump will consider exempting some companies from US tariffs. — 00:15:31 · Donald Trump
  • ★★★ Hank says exemptions are how you create an oligarchy: favours for big businesses that please the president, none for small businesses, terrible for consumers. — 00:15:31
  • ★★ Hank says formerly capitalist business owners have no ideological allegiance to capitalism and will become oligarchs the moment they can: a top-tier power grab, but rational. — 00:15:31 · capitalism

00:16:43 — Non-crazy things: Warren on congressional stock trading, Republicans on Congress's taxing power

  • ★★★ Hank sees a logic: Trump destroyed much value but converted a portion into power for himself, using tariffs to strong-arm companies. — 00:16:43 · Donald Trump
  • ★★ Hank strongly agrees with Elizabeth Warren that members of Congress should not be allowed to trade stocks: public servants should put holdings in trust. — 00:16:43 · United States Congress
  • ★★★ Hank approves of Republicans in Congress saying the Constitution gives the power to levy new taxes to Congress, not the president. — 00:17:13 · Republican Party, United States Congress
  • ★★ Hank says Congress's taxing power is in the Constitution's second article, not an amendment. — 00:17:43 · United States Congress
    • check: second article — doubtful
  • ★★★ Hank says the framers wanted checks and balances between branches so a president could not make bizarre, harmful choices while consolidating power. — 00:17:43

00:18:12 — Recording-date note, thanks to John for TB lobbying in DC, sign-off

  • ★★ Hank thanks John and everyone working with him on going to DC to lobby Congress to continue and escalate the fight against the deadliest infectious disease of today and of all time. — 00:18:12 · John Green, United States Congress, tuberculosis
  • ★★ Hank says humanity can and will still do great things, including one day no one dying of preventable diseases. — 00:18:12

In the description and comments

  • ★ A channel comment says the equation's two terms were made to cancel out on purpose, to look fancy while giving the wanted answer. — creator comment

Humor (significant)

  • Hank ranks the equation's use of a Greek letter as its own A-tier item. — 00:02:03

    “Like, this is a tau for tariff. It could have just been a T, and I love that.”

  • Hank reveals one group of islands on the tariff list has no people. — 00:02:32

    “It is populated entirely by penguins.”

  • After the Japan-China-South Korea trade deal, Hank weighs the upside. — 00:04:58

    “Great for China, that's for sure. World peace, I guess.”

  • Hank sums up the Vietnam tariff. — 00:06:07

    “Almost as if this extraordinarily impactful policy was not well thought through.”

  • Hank ranks Trump tearing up his own trade deal. — 00:07:02

    “For anyone else, S-tier crazy. For Trump, I don't know, C-tier?”

  • Navarro's invented economist Ron Vara is an anagram of Navarro. — 00:07:48

    “But naming him like you're a teenage Lord Voldemort is S-tier crazy.”

  • Arguing members of Congress should not trade stocks, Hank adds a jab. — 00:17:13

    “Let alone actually have a track record of consistently beating the market, Nancy Pelosi.”

Threads in this video

Where the stories that moved here went next

Mentioned

Central: balance of trade · Donald Trump · insider trading · Liberation Day tariffs · oligarchy · tariff · trust · Uncertainty

Also: People: Elizabeth Warren · Elon Musk · Howard Lutnick · Nancy Pelosi · Peter Navarro

Works: Constitution of the United States

Organizations: European Union · Republican Party · Truth Social · United States Congress · United States Department of Justice · United States Department of the Treasury

Concepts: capitalism · cost of living · penguin (concept) · rule of law · separation of powers · small business · stock market · tuberculosis · zero-sum game

Places: Canada · China · Heard Island and McDonald Islands · Japan · Mexico · Northern Ireland · South Korea · United Kingdom · Vietnam

Events: Brexit

Characters: Ron Vara · Voldemort

Policies: North American Free Trade Agreement · United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement

Memes: tier list

Also centred on trust: The Time a Taxi Driver Stole My Money · The Kony 2012 of Roads - Solar Freakin' Roadways · My Ballot Made Me Angry · Two Unrelated Destroyers of Trust

Also centred on Uncertainty: get your game on · you'll never know · On February 3rd, 2020, I Wrote a Video I Didn't Make. Here It Is.

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