Ebola: What IS Terrifying

2014-10-21 · explainer · John · 3:34 · watch on YouTube

Topic: Global development (also: Health) · mode: News analysis · tags: timely hook, heavy topic

John argues that the small US Ebola outbreak is not what should frighten Americans; the worsening West African epidemic is, and because of globalization threats to anyone's health are threats to everyone's.

What is said

The parts of the video and what is said in each (★ — how much it matters to the video).

00:00:00 — Greeting; smallpox killed about as many people in the 20th century as live in the US, yet was eradicated: don't underestimate humans against microbes

★★ John says that in the 20th century about as many people died from smallpox as currently live in the United States. — 00:00:01 · United States
★★ John doesn't think it irrational to be terrified of infectious diseases: they are terrifying. (hedged) — 00:00:06
★★ Smallpox was eradicated, so no one will die of it again; Wikipedia's smallpox page begins 'Smallpox was an infectious disease.' — 00:00:11 · Wikipedia
★★ John says not to underestimate humans when it comes to defeating microbes. (playful) — 00:00:22

00:00:25 — Ebola update: three US cases, Nigeria declared Ebola-free, about 10,000 cases in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone; why the US outbreak is not terrifying

★★ John reports that currently three people have contracted Ebola in the US. — 00:00:30 · United States
★★ Nigeria, which had 20 Ebola infections, was just declared Ebola-free by the World Health Organization; John congratulates Nigeria. — 00:00:30
★★★ There have been about 10,000 reported Ebola cases in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, an undercount, and the infection rate is not levelling off, which is terrifying. — 00:00:39 · Sierra Leone
★★★ John says the current US outbreak is not terrifying: infection controls are good enough that the disease won't spread widely. — 00:00:54 · United States
★★★ The Ebola survival rate so far in the US is over 80% thanks to excellent supportive care, versus closer to 30% in West Africa. — 00:01:00 · United States

00:01:06 — While West Africa worsens there will be outbreaks elsewhere regardless of visas or fever checks; globalization means a global health community; the us/them dichotomy is false

★★★ As long as the outbreak worsens in West Africa there will be outbreaks elsewhere, whether or not visas are revoked or travellers screened for fever. — 00:01:06
★ Microorganisms, John jokes, aren't well informed about the borders of nation states. (playful) — 00:01:21
★★★ If we enjoy globalization's benefits (Argentinian beef in Big Macs, West African chocolate in Hershey's Kisses, Kenyan roses, Bangladeshi clothes), we also live in a global health community. — 00:01:26 · global health
★★★ We imagine diseases like cholera or malaria happen to poor faraway people, but Ebola shows the us/them dichotomy is false: better health care in Liberia is good for all humans. — 00:01:39 · othering, malaria

00:02:00 — Non-Ebola effects of Ebola (Bill Gates), WHO's December estimate, why cutting the countries off would make things worse

★★★ Citing Bill Gates, John says the collapse of public health care in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea has probably caused more non-Ebola deaths than Ebola has. (hedged) — 00:02:00 · Sierra Leone
★★ Harvests and every segment of the affected countries' economies are being hit, and John thinks the outbreak is probably only beginning. (hedged) — 00:02:11
★★★ The WHO estimates there could be 5,000 to 10,000 new Ebola cases per week by December. (hedged) — 00:02:17
★★★ John understands the impulse to cut the affected countries off, but experts agree it would mean more Ebola worldwide, as the weak initial international response showed. — 00:02:24

00:02:37 — WHO's 70-70-60 plan, its cost, and the courageous clinic workers who will contain the outbreak

★★★ The WHO's '70-70-60' plan: within 60 days, 70% of Ebola patients isolated and 70% of burials safe (John jokes it is grammatically 60-70-70). — 00:02:38
★★ The plan needs huge community outreach, many more hospital beds and staff, costing up to a billion dollars a month. — 00:02:50
★★ The heroes will be the American, Cuban, Botswanan and many West African people who build and run the clinics, doing courageous work on behalf of all humans. — 00:03:00 · United States
★★★ John says the effort will eventually work and the outbreak will be contained, but at a very high cost. — 00:03:16

00:03:23 — Lesson: threats to the health of any humans are threats to the health of all humans; sign-off

★★★ John hopes we learn that, with communicable diseases today, threats to the health of any humans are threats to the health of all humans. (hedged) — 00:03:23 · global health

In the description and comments

★★ John points to Oxfam's concern that Ebola could be "the definitive humanitarian disaster of our generation". — video description
★★ John notes that his point about the collapse of health care and non-Ebola deaths paraphrases an interview with Bill Gates. — video description

Threads in this video

repeated · John: Ebola will not spread widely in the US or Europe (2014) — John restates that Ebola won't spread widely in the US: infection controls are good enough. (00:00:56)
predicted · John: while the West African Ebola outbreak worsens, outbreaks will occur elsewhere despite travel restrictions (2014) — John forecasts that while the West African outbreak worsens there will be other outbreaks around the world, whatever visa or fever-screening rules are adopted. (00:01:06)
restate · Is there really an 'us' and a 'them', or are distant and different people just facets of us? — John says Ebola shows how false the us/them dichotomy about disease is; better health care in Liberia is good for all humans. (00:01:47)
predicted · John: the West African Ebola outbreak will eventually be contained, at a very high cost (2014) — John forecasts that the response will eventually be effective and the Ebola outbreak will eventually be contained, at a very high cost. (00:03:16)

Where the stories that moved here went next

Mentioned

Central: Ebola virus disease · global health · othering · Western African Ebola virus epidemic

Also: People: Bill Gates

Organizations: Wikipedia · World Health Organization

Concepts: cholera · globalization · malaria · smallpox

Places: Argentina · Bangladesh · Botswana · Cuba · Guinea · Kenya · Liberia · Nigeria · Sierra Leone · United States · West Africa

Products: Big Mac · Hershey's Kisses

Only in the description or credits: Oxfam · The Economist

Also centred on Ebola virus disease: EBOLA! (...meningitis)

Also centred on Western African Ebola virus epidemic: EBOLA! (...meningitis) · On Emergencies

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