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I Have Uncovered an Olympics Mystery…

2024-08-16 · explainer · Hank · 7:54 · watch on YouTube

Topic: Sports · mode: Curiosity & trivia · tags: timely hook, self correction, civic or action cta, self promotion

After the 2024 Olympics, Hank argues that ranking countries by medals means little, then reports a pattern he cannot explain: continental Europe wins far more bronze than gold medals at every Games for 20 years; he guesses at affluence or randomness among more athletes and asks for a real study.

What is said

The parts of the video and what is said in each (★ — how much it matters to the video).

00:00:00 — Hank's love of the Olympics and the mystery he uncovered through Twitter discourse

  • ★★ Hank says every four years he forgets how much he loves the Olympics, remembers six days in and is sad to have missed half; he is a total sucker for humans being awesome. — 00:00:00
  • ★★ Hank says he appears to have uncovered a cool Olympic mystery that no one seems to know about and that he cannot explain, found through silly Twitter discourse. (hedged) — 00:00:00 · Twitter

00:00:29 — Medal-ranking arguments, the US-China gold tie, the 'Europe as one country' tweet and Connecticutian

  • ★★ From about day two of the Olympics Hank saw arguments over ranking countries by gold medals, total medals or some other weighting of medals. — 00:00:29
  • ★★ Hank says the US and China tied in gold medals, partly because a French basketball player's toe was on the three-point line for a buzzer-beater. — 00:00:29 · United States, China
  • ★★ Hank says it makes sense to break the gold tie with silver and bronze, so the US wins. — 00:00:58 · United States
  • ★★ Hank cites a tweet mocking Americans for addressing everyone as Europeans: Europe as one country would have 116 gold, 122 silver and 160 bronze medals. — 00:00:58 · Europe, United States
  • ★★ Rejecting tweets about how different US states are, Hank says until Connecticut speaks Connecticutian he won't believe states differ as much as European countries. (playful) — 00:01:27 · United States, Europe
  • ★★ Hank says Europe has far more people than the US, continental Europe around 750 million. — 00:01:27 · Europe, United States

00:01:56 — Per-capita golds, three athletes per event, why medal rankings are ridiculous, swimming events and Michael Phelps

  • ★★ Hank says Europe still won more gold medals per capita than the US even without Russia competing: 0.15 per million people against 0.12. — 00:01:56 · Europe, United States
  • ★★ Hank says each country may send only three athletes per event, and continental Europe is many countries. — 00:01:56 · Europe
  • ★★ Since some sports carry more randomness, like shot put in the rain or COVID before an event, Hank thinks more athletes give some, but not much, advantage. (hedged) — 00:02:26 · COVID-19 pandemic
  • ★★★ Hank says ranking countries by medals is ridiculous, if a fine kind: countries don't win medals, individuals do, and we rank because we like it, not because it means something. — 00:02:26
  • ★★ So Hank finds it fine for the US to rank by total medals if that puts it on top, and the rest of the world by golds, since neither means much. (playful) — 00:02:26 · United States
  • ★ Hank found someone ranking countries by the value of the metal in their medals, which he calls as good as any other way; the US still wins. (playful) — 00:03:12 · United States
  • ★★ Hank says many things shape medal counts: population, infrastructure, affluence, and the number of events athletes can enter. — 00:03:12
  • ★★ Contrasting pole vault (only men and women) with swimming (many strokes and lengths for each), Hank says there are 37 Olympic swimming events and that it is weird the number is odd. — 00:03:41
    • a number in question (slip of the tongue): "37" — check against the recording
  • ★★ Hank says the US is good at swimming partly because of its many pools and school swim teams with Olympic-regulation pools; eight of its 40 golds came in swimming. — 00:03:41 · United States

00:04:10 — The mystery: continental Europe's consistent excess of bronze over gold, Hank's guesses and his wish for a study

  • ★★ Hank says Michael Phelps won 23 gold medals, twice as many as anyone else ever. — 00:04:10
  • ★★★ Hank notes Europe's 160 bronze medals: 0.21 bronze medals per million people, far more than the US's 0.12. — 00:04:39 · Europe, United States
  • ★★ Hank says the US was very consistent at 40, 44 and 42 medals, while China was weighted toward gold: 40 gold, 27 silver, 24 bronze. — 00:04:39 · United States, China
  • ★★★ Checking earlier Games, Hank finds it no 2024 fluke: continental Europe won 114 gold and 155 bronze in 2021, 113 and 139 in 2016, 108 and 138 in 2012. — 00:04:39 · Europe
  • ★★★ Hank argues the pattern controls for events, population and affluence: the same countries and events every Games, yet every Olympics for the last 20 years, possibly longer, shows continental Europe with significantly more bronze than gold. — 00:05:29 · Europe
  • ★★ Since money and socioeconomic status usually explain most things, Hank guesses less affluent countries may invest in elite athletes but less in those further down; China fits, but the affluent US shows no pattern. (hedged) — 00:05:58 · China, United States
  • ★★★ Hank's second guess: bronze placings may be more random, gold winners being truer outliers, so Europe's larger number of athletes yields more bronze medals. (hedged) — 00:06:28 · Europe
  • ★★ Hank says it could be something else; he does not know, and would not know how to design the study or do the statistics. (unsure) — 00:06:57
  • ★★ Hank says a snarky tweet made him curious and he seems to have found a real phenomenon he would love someone to write a full research paper on, as he had no time to check his work. (hedged) — 00:06:57

00:07:26 — Reply to John's spy story and the weekly newsletter plug

  • ★ Thanking John for his spy story, Hank says he never got a spy, and might have told one he wanted to be an asset and a threat. (playful) — 00:07:26 · John Green
  • ★★ Hank invites viewers to join over 250,000 people getting the brothers' weekly newsletter, linked atop the description and in the first comment, to find cool stuff without going on Twitter. — 00:07:26 · Twitter

In the description and comments

  • ★★ The description explains the odd number of swim events: one mixed relay has no separate men's and women's events; Hank thinks there are actually 35, not 37, but the point stands. (hedged) — video description
  • ★ In a channel comment Hank says he was thinking of whitewater canoe events, which seem to involve a lot of randomness. — creator comment

Threads in this video

Where the stories that moved here went next

Mentioned

Central: Europe · Olympic Games · Olympic medal table

Also: People: Michael Phelps

Projects: We're Here newsletter

Organizations: Twitter

Concepts: Intellectual humility · Randomness · shot put · social class · statistics · Swimming

Places: China · Connecticut · France · Russia · United States

Events: COVID-19 pandemic

Also centred on Olympic Games: I Don't Understand My Life · Happy Third Chocolate Day! · 16 Sports that Should Be in the Olympics · The Olympics Mystery Explained!!!

Replies to

Later videos replying to this one

Part of an exchange of 3 videos, 2024-08-13 – 2024-08-19.