Predictions, one by one

Every forecast about the world (439) recorded on the channel, 2007–2026. Each lists the horizon (as said, and the date it implies where it can be read), the hedge, any condition, restatements and an outcome if a later video reports one. Under each forecast, later on the channel shows up to two later statements on the same specific subject — leads for the reader, not a verdict. Back to Promises & predictions.

Dates are upload dates, which set the order. Where the speaker gives a different recording date in the video, it is added as "said on YYYY-MM-DD, implied" (derived from the date said in the video). Intervals ("N days later") and relative deadlines are counted from that said-on date.

2007 (2)

• 2007-02-16 · Hank: humans will tire of procreation and find new ways of existing rather than die out violently (2007) — Hank · horizon: eventually · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2007-02-16: Hank predicts humans will eventually tire of procreation and find new ways of existing, rather than end through slaughter or depletion. (hedged: "I think") — Brotherhood 2.0: February 16th 00:01:29
• 2007-11-05 · John: Pakistanis will be less free tomorrow than today (2007) — John · horizon: 2007-11-06 (≈ 2007-11-06) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2007-11-05: John forecasts that the people of Pakistan will be less free tomorrow than today. (hedged: "it looks like") — November 5th: John's Not Happy about Pakistan 00:03:19

2008 (2)

• 2008-04-16 (said on 2008-04-17, implied) · Hank: Julia Nunes will be famous within two years (2008) — Hank · horizon: 2010-04 (≈ 2010-04-30) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2008-04-16 (said on 2008-04-17, implied): Hank predicts Julia Nunes will be famous within two years. — ITCHY MUSIC! 00:02:24
  • later on the channel 2008-09-04: John announces an October 16 New York launch party for Paper Towns' release with Hank, their parents, the Yeti, Maureen Johnson and other authors; Julia Nunes is floated as a 'rumor'. — Paper Towns Tour Dates! 00:01:12
  • later on the channel 2008-09-23: John says Julia Nunes will not be at the New York event but will be at the Boston event. — Paper Towns and Touring Question Tuesday 00:02:10
• 2008-08-12 · John: Georgia will have to give up South Ossetia and Abkhazia (2008) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2008-08-12: John predicts Georgia will have to give up South Ossetia and Abkhazia, since neither Western Europe nor America will come to its military aid. — PEANUT BUTTER FACE (while discussing the Georgia-Russia War) 00:02:57

2009 (6)

• 2009-01-04 · John: if his peace steps are taken, Hamas is out of power within a year (2009) — John · horizon: within a year of the steps being taken (≈ 2010-01-04) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · conditional: Israel stops settlements and frees prisoners, Hamas and al-Aqsa stop attacks, Fatah quits corruption · no report on the channel · not counted (hypothetical)
  • forecast 2009-01-04: John predicts that if Israel, Hamas and Fatah take his steps, Hamas will be out of power within a year and a 1949-like map with Palestinian sovereignty can follow. (hypothetical) — Israel. Gaza. PUPPY! 00:02:58
• 2009-01-18 · John: Obama's inaugural address will probably be boring (2009) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2009-01-18: John predicts Obama's inaugural address will be boring, like most inaugural addresses. (hedged: "I suspect") — PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA Inaugurated: Some Historical Background 00:02:12
• 2009-02-01 · John: the Steelers will beat the Cardinals by six in Super Bowl XLIII (2009) — John · horizon: 2009-02-01 (≈ 2009-02-01) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2009-02-01: John predicts, 'entirely due to mascot superiority', that the Steelers will win Super Bowl 43 by six. (playful) — Super Bowl Analysis from an Idiot 00:03:02
  • later on the channel 2010-01-29: Hank says the first Super Bowl aired in 1967 and that it has since become America's most watched yearly event. — An Extremely Brief History of Superbowl Commercials 00:00:00
• 2009-02-08 · John: Richard Williamson will acknowledge the Holocaust to be rehabilitated as a bishop (2009) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2009-02-08: John guesses that Richard Williamson, wanting to be a bishop, will acknowledge the Holocaust and apologise, and may then be rehabilitated. (hedged: "my guess is") — All Aboard the Fail Boat 00:01:10
• 2009-02-15 · John: the US economy is in for a 'crap storm' whatever the stimulus does (2009) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2009-02-15: John says the stimulus may or may not work and that he thinks the economy is in for a 'crap storm' no matter what. (hedged: "I happen to think") — Stimulus Plan Explained 00:03:21
• 2009-07-05 · John: Sarah Palin resigned because of an unannounced brewing scandal (2009) — John · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2009-07-05: John guesses Palin resigned because of an unannounced brewing scandal, and says he will happily admit it if wrong. (hedged: "I think") — Sarah Palin Resigning! Four Possible Reasons Why 00:03:12

2010 (9)

• 2010-01-29 (said on 2010-01-30, implied) · Hank: if the iPad succeeds, it will be in ways nobody expects (2010) — Hank · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2010-01-29 (said on 2010-01-30, implied): Hank predicts that if the iPad takes off, it will be in ways no one expects; he thinks it will suit study guides with interactive tests and diagrams. (hedged: "I think") — The iPad and Dolphin Murder 00:00:00
• 2010-04-05 · Hank: bionic implants combined with speech recognition are not far off (2010) — Hank · horizon: not far off · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2010-04-05: Hank forecasts that speech recognition combined with a bionic implant is not far off, and would dramatically change what it means to be a person. (hedged: "to me") — Google in your Brain 00:03:08
• 2010-04-05 · Hank: accurate speech recognition will arrive before long (2010) — Hank · horizon: before long · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2010-04-05: Hank forecasts that it probably won't be long before speech recognition works. (hedged: "probably") — Google in your Brain 00:03:08
• 2010-04-30 · John: doubts after Greece will probably raise rich countries' borrowing costs, risking a vicious circle of defaults (2010) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2010-04-30: John forecasts that doubt about whether rich countries will repay will probably raise interest rates for many of them, which could feed a vicious circle of defaults. (hedged: "probably") — The Greek Debt Crisis Explained in Four Minutes 00:02:05
• 2010-05-03 · Hank: if legally allowed, ISPs will throttle content, killing YouTube and the next big internet innovation (2010) — Hank · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2010-05-03: Hank predicts that if ISPs are legally able to throttle content they will, killing YouTube and the next great internet innovation. — Net Neutrality in the Shower 00:02:27
• 2010-06-23 (said on 2010-06-24, implied) · Hank: the United States won't win the World Cup (2010) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2010-06-23 (said on 2010-06-24, implied): Hank predicts the United States will not win the World Cup and fans will end up frustrated and disappointed. — GOOOOOOOL!!!! 00:02:26
  • later on the channel 2013-11-26: John says he and Hank are auctioning their World Cup 2014 support: donations to the Foundation to Decrease World Suck on behalf of a team decide whom they support, top to bottom. — The Bank of Nerdfighteria 00:00:55
  • later on the channel 2014-05-27: For every dollar donated John will donate three, making each dollar worth four, and he will support the donor's chosen team, unless someone else pays more. — ALL THE SHIRTS (and some paths to community) 00:00:53
• 2010-07-16 · Hank: oil-drilling catastrophes will become more frequent as oil gets more expensive, absent regulation (2010) — Hank · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2010-07-16: Hank adds that the end of the spill lasts only until it happens again. (playful) — VidCon, Oil Spill, Punishments, Shane Dawson, and my Balls 00:02:13
  • predicted 2010-09-03 (49 days later): Hank predicts oil catastrophes will happen more and more as oil gets more expensive, unless someone tells companies they can't take those risks. — ANOTHER Oil Rig Explosion?! REALLY?! 00:03:04
• 2010-09-03 · Hank: we will never run out of oil, only of easy oil (2010) — Hank · horizon: never · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2010-09-03: Hank makes the 'somewhat preposterous' claim that humanity will never run out of oil, only of easy oil. — ANOTHER Oil Rig Explosion?! REALLY?! 00:00:58
• 2010-10-25 · Hank: Glee's Rocky Horror episode will drop the absurdity and the audience experience and just sing the songs (2010) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2010-10-25: Hank says Glee will not talk about what is cool about Rocky Horror: it will take out the absurdity, the alien stuff and the audience experience and just sing some songs. — Rocky Horror + Glee = ? 00:02:57

2011 (10)

• 2011-01-31 · John: Mubarak will have to step down, and then Egypt's hard work begins (2011) — John · horizon: not stated · came true
  • forecast 2011-01-31: John predicts Mubarak will probably have to make a graceful exit, after which the hard work will begin. (hedged: "it looks like") — Revolution in Egypt: A 4-Minute Introduction 00:02:50
  • → came true 2013-07-05 (2.4 years later): Hank says the internet ended Mubarak's 30 years of censorship; Arab Spring youth protested, the Brotherhood followed, the military declined to help, and Mubarak stepped down. — Egypt....Explained! 00:02:52
• 2011-05-02 · Hank: al-Zawahiri may struggle to keep al-Qaeda's loyalty after bin Laden's death (2011) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2011-05-02: Hank forecasts that al-Zawahiri may find it hard to keep the loyalty bin Laden held together in al-Qaeda, which could be a pretty good thing. (hedged: "It might be") — Osama Bin Laden is Dead 00:02:19
• 2011-08-08 (said on 2011-08-09, implied) · Hank: crime and war are on the cusp of a fundamental shift to cyber attacks (2011) — Hank · horizon: on the cusp · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2011-08-08 (said on 2011-08-09, implied): Hank says we are on the cusp of a fundamental shift in the way crime and war happen, toward cyber crime and cyber warfare. — Hackers, Cyber crime, and a New Kind of War. 00:01:11
• 2011-08-08 (said on 2011-08-09, implied) · Hank: cybersecurity legislation will probably hurt the internet and never be effective (2011) — Hank · horizon: never · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2011-08-08 (said on 2011-08-09, implied): Hank predicts legislation against cyber attacks will probably ruin much of what's great about the internet and will never be effective. (hedged: "probably") — Hackers, Cyber crime, and a New Kind of War. 00:03:09
• 2011-08-10 · John: the dollar's trusted status as world default currency will not go away soon (2011) — John · horizon: soon · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2011-08-10: John says the world's trust in the dollar as default currency is probably not going away anytime soon, though political dysfunction erodes it in the long run. (hedged: "probably") — Understanding America's Debt Problem 00:03:23
  • repeated 2012-10-23 (1.2 years later): John says a debt spiral might be much worse for the US than for Greece, because it enjoys the world's most trusted currency: most US paper currency circulates abroad, keeping its debt cheap. (hedged: "might") — Understanding the National Debt and Budget Deficit 00:04:01
• 2011-09-26 · John: a credit crunch is coming (2011) — John · horizon: coming · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2011-09-26: John says he is pretty worried a credit crunch is coming. (hedged: "I think") — Awesome Bankers? 00:01:27
• 2011-09-28 · Hank: sport stacking may be coming to an end (2011) — Hank · horizon: coming · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2011-09-28: Hank is kind of worried sport stacking is coming to an end because no one may be able to beat the current record holder. (hedged: "kind of worried") — Cup Stacking and Glasses Picking 00:01:58
• 2011-10-21 · Hank: The Fault in Our Stars will be a classic book (2011) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2011-10-21: Hank predicts The Fault in Our Stars is going to be an amazing classic book. (hedged: "what I think is going to be") — Signing Psychosis, BlizzCon, TFiOS, Awesome Adventures, and URLatron 00:03:11
• 2011-10-26 · Hank: the coming era will be one of the most exciting and vibrant in human history (2011) — Hank · horizon: coming · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2011-10-26: Hank predicts the coming era will probably be one of the most exciting and vibrant in human history, and also potentially violent and dangerous. (hedged: "probably") — 7,000,000,000 People 00:02:48
• 2011-11-21 · John: if SOPA passes, the internet will only get a little worse (2011) — John · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2011-11-21: John predicts that if SOPA passed it would only make the internet a little bit worse. (hedged: "I suspect") — Old Man Narrates Young Girl 00:03:13
  • later on the channel 2012-01-20: The description says the internet blackout resulted in a great number of congresspeople dropping their support for SOPA and PIPA. — Thoughts on SOPA From New Orleans video description

2012 (4)

• 2012-03-09 · Hank: humans will set foot on another planet within his lifetime (2012) — Hank · horizon: lifetime · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2012-03-09: Hank expects that, if he lives a normal span, he will one day see humans set foot on another planet. (hedged: "If I can live, you know, sort of a manageable amount of time for a guy my age, I should") — The Future of Manned Space Exploration 00:03:22
• 2012-09-21 · Hank: gay marriage will soon no longer be illegal in the US (2012) — Hank · horizon: soon · came true
  • forecast 2012-09-21: Hank predicts that gay marriage will soon no longer be illegal in the US. — You. Must. Vote. 00:02:42
  • → came true 2015-06-30 (2.8 years later): John celebrates that anyone anywhere in the US can now marry the person they love, toasting the activists and decades of activism behind it. — Some News 00:03:38
• 2012-10-23 · John: the US federal deficit will fall to about $900 billion in 2013, whoever is president (2012) — John · horizon: 2013 (≈ 2013-12-31) · came true
  • forecast 2012-10-23: John forecasts the federal deficit will fall further in 2013, to about $900 billion, no matter who is president. — Understanding the National Debt and Budget Deficit 00:04:27
  • → came true 2013-03-12 (140 days later): John says the annual budget deficit is shrinking pretty fast and is probably not a concern at the moment. (hedged: "probably") — Understand the Sequester (Spoiler: It's Bananas.) 00:01:53
• 2012-11-09 · Hank: the House of Representatives' 435 seats will probably never be increased (2012) — Hank · horizon: never · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2012-11-09: Hank predicts the House's 435 seats are really unlikely ever to increase, since the number has been in place so long. (hedged: "really unlikely") — The Stadium of Representatives: The End of B20 Week :-( 00:01:56

2013 (9)

• 2013-02-19 · John: the Fault in Our Stars film is actually going to happen (2013) — John · horizon: not stated · came true
  • forecast 2013-02-19: Having had his heart broken by Hollywood before, John says he is starting to think the TFIOS movie is actually going to happen. (hedged: "I'm starting to think") — Doing Things, On the Importance of 00:01:21
  • repeated 2013-04-02 (42 days later): John says a film adaptation of The Fault in Our Stars seems increasingly likely, though still not certain. (hedged: "seems increasingly likely, although still definitely not certain") — TFiOS Movie Casting, New Books, and Groundhog Wars: An Old School Vlogbrothers Video 00:01:27
  • → came true 2013-08-27 (189 days later): John says the movie is happening because of the script, producers, director and cast, but also because many people read, loved and shared the book: without that, there would be no movie. — On the TFIOS Movie Set 00:02:12
  • → came true 2014-06-10 (said on 2014-06-07, implied) (1.3 years later): John says it is actually Saturday because he will be on vacation on Tuesday; the TFiOS film came out in America the day before and he is extremely tired. (playful) — Our Old Friend Complexity: Behind the Beautiful Forevers 00:00:01
  • recalled 2016-09-20 (3.6 years later): John says The Fault in Our Stars kept selling, and in May 2012 he read an amazing screenplay adaptation and realized it might become a movie. — Failing to Follow Up The Fault in Our Stars 00:01:14
• 2013-04-02 · John predicts The Fault in Our Stars movie will be a good movie (2013) — John · horizon: ever · came true
  • forecast 2013-04-02: John says, in what he calls his most positive statement ever about Hollywood, that people should be cautiously optimistic about the film. (hedged: "I think") — TFiOS Movie Casting, New Books, and Groundhog Wars: An Old School Vlogbrothers Video 00:01:56
  • predicted 2013-07-19 (108 days later): John thinks the TFIOS film is going to be a very good movie. (hedged: "I think") — TFiOS Movie, Bees, Babies, and More! 00:01:13
  • repeated 2013-08-27 (147 days later): John predicts the TFIOS movie will be good because everyone on set feels a tremendous responsibility to the story and its readers. (hedged: "I think") — On the TFIOS Movie Set 00:02:39
  • repeated 2014-01-07 (280 days later): John hopes the TFIOS movie is good: he hasn't seen it yet, but it should be good. (hedged: "I hope") — Warm Things for Cold Times 00:00:30
  • → came true 2014-01-14 (287 days later): John says the movie is funny but at other times very, very sad; he really loved it, which is exciting and a huge relief. — Giving Away Over $700,000 00:00:06
  • repeated 2014-03-11 (343 days later): Having seen it, John restates that the TFIOS film is good: he loves it, while granting he might be wrong and is not objective. (hedged: "I might be wrong") — Question Tuesday: TFIOS Movie, Existential Crises, and Symbolism 00:00:27
  • repeated 2014-06-03 (1.2 years later): John says he loves the movie and finds it amazingly faithful to the book, powerful, funny and moving; its makers cared about the story and each other. (hedged: "I think") — The Fault in Our Stars Movie Premiere 00:02:41
  • → came true 2014-06-10 (said on 2014-06-07, implied) (1.2 years later): John says reviews of the TFiOS film have been amazing and, per Rotten Tomatoes, 93% of viewers liked it. — Our Old Friend Complexity: Behind the Beautiful Forevers 00:00:19
• 2013-04-05 · Hank predicts North Korea almost certainly will not attack South Korea, Japan or Guam (2013) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2013-04-05: Hank predicts North Korea almost certainly will not bomb South Korea, Japan or Guam. (hedged: "almost certainly") — North Korea: Explained 00:00:32
• 2013-06-07 · Hank: within Alice's lifetime, if all goes well, humans on Mars, intelligent computers, the paralyzed walking, absolute poverty all but ended (2013) — Hank · horizon: lifetime · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2013-06-07: Hank forecasts that, if all goes well, within Alice's lifetime humans will walk on Mars, computers will become intelligent, the paralyzed will walk, absolute poverty will be all but eliminated and she may live past 100 - or technological society may implode. (hedged: "If all goes well") — How To Be a Baby Properly 00:00:12
• 2013-08-20 · John predicts US health care costs will keep rising fastest in the world until the US negotiates prices like Australia and Britain (2013) — John · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2013-08-20: John predicts that until the US negotiates with providers as effectively as Australia and Britain, its health care costs will keep rising faster than anywhere else, without better outcomes. — Why Are American Health Care Costs So High? 00:06:41
  • repeated 2015-03-24 (1.6 years later): John says that if nothing changes, US health care costs will still crush the country in the long run, since the ACA is not radical. — Is Obamacare Working? The Affordable Care Act Five Years Later 00:05:34
  • partly came true 2016-10-18 (3.2 years later): John says costs still rise faster than inflation and median weekly earnings, outcomes still lag, and US care remains far costlier than anywhere, though the gap with Europe has narrowed; the ACA was not designed to fix this. — Understanding Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton's Health Care Reform Proposals 00:02:54
• 2013-09-13 · Hank predicts years of bloody conflict in Syria whatever the outcome of the chemical-weapons talks (2013) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2013-09-13: In the description Hank says that, however the chemical-weapons negotiations go, the people of Syria face years of bloody conflict. — Syria in Five Minutes video description
  • later on the channel 2015-09-08: Syria's horrific civil war, four and a half years old, began with the hope of the 2011 Arab Spring, which toppled several dictatorships, some since replaced by new dictators. — Understanding the Refugee Crisis in Europe, Syria, and around the World 00:00:54
  • later on the channel 2015-12-11: John says millions of people have been forced to flee Syria because of its civil war. — The Refugee Crises: Project for Awesome 2015 00:00:20
• 2013-09-13 · Hank predicts collecting Syria's chemical weapons during the civil war would be extremely complicated (2013) — Hank · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2013-09-13: Hank predicts that if the handover happens, collecting chemical weapons from a country in civil war will be extremely complicated. — Syria in Five Minutes 00:04:33
• 2013-09-27 · Hank predicts world population will peak around 10 billion and serious climate-change effects will begin around 2060 (2013) — Hank · horizon: 2060 (≈ 2060-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2013-09-27: Hank says world population will probably peak around 10 billion in 2060, probably when the really significant effects of climate change start to be felt. (hedged: "probably") — Invalid Arguments: Climate Change 00:00:01
• 2013-10-01 · Hank predicts the 2013 government shutdown will be resolved within days or weeks (2013) — Hank · horizon: 2013-10-22 (≈ 2013-10-22) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2013-10-01: Hank predicts the shutdown will be resolved, in perhaps three days or three weeks, because Congress wants the country to exist. — The Lowdown on the Shutdown 00:03:00

2014 (12)

• 2014-01-31 · Hank: the TFIOS film is going to be fantastic (2014) — Hank · horizon: not stated · came true
  • forecast 2014-01-31: Hank tells John the TFIOS film is going to be fantastic. — In Depth Viewing of the TFiOS Trailer 00:03:42
  • → came true 2014-06-06 (126 days later): Hank is not worried that the movie is bad or that people won't like it: it is great, people will love it, and he cried several times because it added to him. — Thoughts from the TFiOS Premiere! 00:03:14
• 2014-03-04 · John: Crimea cannot become part of Russia again without Ukrainian cooperation, which seems inconceivable (2014) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2014-03-04: John says Crimea becoming part of Russia again would be impossible without Ukrainian cooperation, which right now seems inconceivable. (hedged: "seems") — Understanding Ukraine: The Problems Today and Some Historical Context 00:05:06
• 2014-03-11 · John: Tony Kanaan will win the Indy 500 for the second time (2014) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2014-03-11: John predicts Tony Kanaan will win the Indy 500 for the second time. (hedged: "I think") — Question Tuesday: TFIOS Movie, Existential Crises, and Symbolism 00:01:58
  • later on the channel 2016-05-24: John says he is leaving directly from the Indianapolis 500 to go to the game in London. — Easier Than IKEA: A Video in Two Parts 00:03:20
  • later on the channel 2016-05-31 (said on 2016-05-29, implied): John says 350,000 people are all in the same place for the Indy 500. — The Most Amazing Day 00:00:55
• 2014-03-11 · John: Will Power will win the IndyCar series title (2014) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2014-03-11: John predicts Will Power will win the IndyCar series title. (hedged: "I think") — Question Tuesday: TFIOS Movie, Existential Crises, and Symbolism 00:02:02
  • later on the channel 2016-05-03: John, a big IndyCar fan, thought pace driving was ceremonial, but at practice found he must drive about 110 mph on the straightaways; he is very scared and asks TV viewers to remember he is doing his best. — No Fumar 00:01:06
• 2014-03-18 · John: if trends continue, within a decade the US may no longer be the best place for the most skilled workers (2014) — John · horizon: 2024 (≈ 2024-12-31) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2014-03-18: John: if current trends continue, within a decade the US may no longer be the best place for skilled workers such as female programmers. (hedged: "may") — Is the American Dream Real? 00:03:10
• 2014-08-12 · John: Ebola treatments or vaccines may exist within a year (2014) — John · horizon: 2015-08 (≈ 2015-08-31) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2014-08-12: John forecasts, citing mounting evidence, that Ebola treatments or vaccines might exist within a year. (hedged: "might") — EBOLA! (...meningitis) 00:02:19
• 2014-08-12 · John: Ebola will not spread widely in the US or Europe (2014) — John · horizon: not stated · came true
  • forecast 2014-08-12: John forecasts that Ebola will not spread widely in the US or Europe. — EBOLA! (...meningitis) 00:02:49
  • repeated 2014-10-21 (70 days later): John restates that Ebola won't spread widely in the US: infection controls are good enough. — Ebola: What IS Terrifying 00:00:56
  • → came true 2019-10-01 (5.1 years later): With little running water to sterilize and too few gloves or masks, John says this systemic weakness is why Ebola could ravage Sierra Leone but not the United States or Spain. — Why Are Poor Countries Poor? 00:04:22
• 2014-08-29 · Hank: taxis will be mostly driven by robots within ten years (2014) — Hank · horizon: 2024 (≈ 2024-12-31) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2014-08-29: Hank says taxis will be mostly driven by robots in ten years. — What's the Difference Between A and Z 00:02:52
• 2014-09-19 · Hank: virtual reality will be neither ruin nor salvation but a mixed bag, like the internet, that changes things (2014) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2014-09-19: Hank predicts virtual reality will neither destroy nor save civilization: like the internet it will be a mixed bag, but it will change things. — The Oculus Rift is Freakin Me Out 00:02:46
• 2014-10-21 · John: while the West African Ebola outbreak worsens, outbreaks will occur elsewhere despite travel restrictions (2014) — John · horizon: not stated · came true
  • forecast 2014-10-21: John forecasts that while the West African outbreak worsens there will be other outbreaks around the world, whatever visa or fever-screening rules are adopted. — Ebola: What IS Terrifying 00:01:06
  • → came true 2015-09-08 (322 days later): John partly blames the mess on the delusion that regional crises lack global importance: Ebola in Liberia is Liberia's problem until it's Nigeria's, Germany's and America's; so with Syria's war. — Understanding the Refugee Crisis in Europe, Syria, and around the World 00:07:36
  • later on the channel 2014-12-12: Hank says Partners in Health empowers and equips local health workers and was working on the front lines against Ebola before anyone in the US knew of the outbreak. — NONSENSE: P4A 2014 - Partners in Health 00:00:39
  • later on the channel 2016-08-16: John says the Ebola outbreak that killed more than 11,000 people in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia has ended, though flare-ups remain possible. — Some Good News: 16 Ways 2016 Is Not a Total Dumpster Fire 00:00:35
• 2014-10-21 · John: the West African Ebola outbreak will eventually be contained, at a very high cost (2014) — John · horizon: eventually · came true
  • forecast 2014-10-21: John forecasts that the response will eventually be effective and the Ebola outbreak will eventually be contained, at a very high cost. — Ebola: What IS Terrifying 00:03:16
  • → came true 2016-08-16 (1.8 years later): John says the Ebola outbreak that killed more than 11,000 people in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia has ended, though flare-ups remain possible. — Some Good News: 16 Ways 2016 Is Not a Total Dumpster Fire 00:00:35
  • → came true 2018-01-23 (3.3 years later): John says the influx of aid in 2014 helped end the Ebola crisis but did very little to address the long-term crisis. — On Emergencies 00:00:45
  • later on the channel 2014-12-12: Hank says Partners in Health empowers and equips local health workers and was working on the front lines against Ebola before anyone in the US knew of the outbreak. — NONSENSE: P4A 2014 - Partners in Health 00:00:39
• 2014-11-28 · John: within 30 or 40 years most poor countries may be middle-income countries (2014) — John · horizon: 2054 (≈ 2054-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2014-11-28: John: we are maybe only 30 or 40 years away from the vast majority of poor countries being middle-income countries. (hedged: "maybe") — Global Health and Human Hair: What the Vlogbrothers are Thankful For 00:00:43

2015 (9)

• 2015-03-24 · John: the ACA will probably keep working unless the Supreme Court guts it within months (2015) — John · horizon: in a few months · conditional · came true
  • forecast 2015-03-24: John predicts the ACA will probably continue to work, unless the Supreme Court eviscerates it in a few months. (hedged: "probably") — Is Obamacare Working? The Affordable Care Act Five Years Later 00:06:27
  • → came true 2015-06-30 (98 days later): John counts as good news that the US Supreme Court did not cancel "our" health insurance. — Some News 00:03:36
  • later on the channel 2016-10-18: John says that before the ACA many people not working for big companies, including himself, literally could not buy health insurance at any price, because insurers could deny pre-existing conditions. — Understanding Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton's Health Care Reform Proposals 00:00:38
  • later on the channel 2017-03-28: Citing the Kaiser Foundation, John breaks down where Americans get health insurance: about 6% through the ACA exchanges, 49% through employers, 20% Medicaid, 14% Medicare, and 9% uninsured. — Why Can't America Have a Grown-Up Healthcare Conversation? video description
• 2015-05-15 · Hank: jobs might no longer exist by the time 2015 graduates retire (2015) — Hank · horizon: by the time 2015 graduates retir · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2015-05-15: Hank says that by the time today's graduates reach retirement age, jobs might not be a thing anymore. (hedged: "might") — Happy Graduation, Future Dead People 00:01:25
• 2015-07-07 · John: if the liquidity crisis continues, Greece will be forced to print an alternate currency and leave the Eurozone ('Grexit') (2015) — John · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2015-07-07: John forecasts that if the bank liquidity crisis continues, Greece will be forced to print an alternate currency, the so-called Grexit. — Understanding the Financial Crisis in Greece 00:06:15
• 2015-09-08 · John: smuggling and refugee deaths on the routes to Europe will continue until legal routes are available (2015) — John · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2015-09-08: John forecasts that until legal opportunities to reach Europe are available, the smuggling and the deaths will continue. — Understanding the Refugee Crisis in Europe, Syria, and around the World 00:04:34
• 2015-09-11 · Hank: the Yellowstone supervolcano will erupt again someday, though not anytime soon (2015) — Hank · horizon: anytime soon · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2015-09-11: Hank says the Yellowstone supervolcano won't erupt again anytime soon but will someday, and the park will then basically be gone. — Yellowstone: The Terror of Change 00:00:40
• 2015-09-29 · John: he will lose his race car race against Maggie Stiefvater (2015) — John · horizon: not stated · came true
  • forecast 2015-09-29: John says he is going to lose his race against Maggie Stiefvater. (playful) — Writing, Walling, Racing, and Wizard Schooling 00:00:58
  • repeated 2015-10-06 (7 days later): Asked how prepared he is for the race, John repeats that he is prepared to lose, on a professional driver friend's advice. (playful) (hedged: "I guess") — Question Tuesday: My Social Media Hiatus, My Excellent German, and Books! 00:02:39
  • → came true 2015-10-13 (14 days later): John lost his race car race to Maggie Stiefvater, as he had predicted. — John Green's Fiery Race Car Disaster 00:02:24
• 2015-10-23 · Hank: further Benghazi investigations will probably not find anything new (2015) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2015-10-23: After eight congressional investigations, Hank says it seems pretty unlikely any more will be found, and more likely the attack involved significant but not criminal mistakes. (hedged: "it's seeming") — Benghazi: Explained 00:06:16
• 2015-11-12 · John: nation-states will be slightly less important in 50 years (2015) — John · horizon: 2065 (≈ 2065-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2015-11-12: John thinks that in 50 years nation-states will be slightly less important than they are now. (hedged: "I think") — Cheez Doodles Guy, Ringo Silver, and Dad Jokes (Pizzamas Day 4) 00:03:02
• 2015-11-12 · John: India will be the world's biggest superpower in 50 years (2015) — John · horizon: 2065 (≈ 2065-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2015-11-12: John picks India as the world's biggest superpower in 50 years. (hedged: "I'm gonna say") — Cheez Doodles Guy, Ringo Silver, and Dad Jokes (Pizzamas Day 4) 00:03:05

2016 (22)

• 2016-01-19 · John: Looking for Alaska may never be made into a movie (2016) — John · horizon: never · came true
  • forecast 2016-01-19: Asked when Looking for Alaska will become a movie, John says he doesn't know, maybe never; he hopes that changes but doesn't expect it to. (hedged: "Maybe") — The Looking for Alaska Movie, Davos, and Hufflepuff Shade: It's Question Tuesday 00:01:59
  • → came true 2018-10-31 (2.8 years later): John says the studio hired great screenwriters and a director, then cancelled the movie at the last minute; heartbroken and angry, he told them he was out. — The Looking for Alaska Thing 00:02:26
  • later on the channel 2016-03-29: John says there is sadly no news on the Looking for Alaska movie. — My New Book, Marriage Advice, and Hamilton: 50 Snapchat Questions Answered! 00:02:26
• 2016-01-22 · Hank: in 200 years people will find the way we eat meat ridiculous (2016) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2016-01-22: Hank predicts that 200 years from now people will think it ridiculous that we ate meat the way we do. — Why Are Vegetarians Annoying? (An Exploration of a Cultural Rift) 00:03:21
• 2016-02-23 · John: energy and gender equity will be seen as two of the 21st century's biggest challenges (2016) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2016-02-23: John thinks we will look back on energy and gender equity as two of the biggest challenges of the 21st century. (hedged: "I think") — How Energy and Time Change Everything 00:03:31
• 2016-03-11 · Hank: respecting political opponents will get harder as the 2016 US election season goes on (2016) — Hank · horizon: 2016-11 (≈ 2016-11-30) · came true
  • forecast 2016-03-11: Hank says Americans find this ever harder, and it will get harder the deeper the country gets into this election season. — The Politics of "Parks and Rec" 00:03:01
  • → came true 2016-08-12 (154 days later): Hank says he really loves the country, though it is harder in election years, when Americans demonize each other so hard that everyone ends up looking like demons. — AMERICA, DAMMIT! - Thoughts from Glacier National Park 00:02:13
• 2016-03-18 · Hank predicts many of Brazil's respected leaders will be damaged by the corruption scandal, making it hard for Brazil to lead its way out (2016) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2016-03-18: Hank predicts many of Brazil's most respected leaders will not come out of the scandal unscathed, so it will be hard for Brazil to lead its way out of the problem. — Brazil's Government is Falling Apart...and it's Good News? 00:09:00
• 2016-03-18 · Hank predicts Brazil's corruption crisis will be good for Brazil in the long term (2016) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2016-03-18: Hank predicts the corruption crisis, though bad for Brazil short-term, will be good long-term because it shows being a crooked politician is not worth it. (hedged: "I think") — Brazil's Government is Falling Apart...and it's Good News? 00:09:31
• 2016-03-22 · John: the 2016 nominee may not be the candidate with the most primary and caucus support (2016) — John · horizon: 2016 (≈ 2016-12-31) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2016-03-22: John says that this year (2016), unlike the last 10 cycles, the candidate with the most primary and caucus support may not become the nominee. (hedged: "may") — Understanding the Primaries: Delegates, Democracy, and America's Nonstop Political Party 00:05:07
• 2016-06-03 · Hank predicts machines will take over many human jobs, forcing a redefinition of work and meaning (2016) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2016-06-03: Hank predicts machines will take over many jobs humans have had, so fewer people will have normal jobs and work and meaning must be redefined. — Redefining What it Means to Matter 00:01:48
• 2016-07-22 · Hank: a new age of the social internet will come, with platforms and users promoting good community, kindness and empathy (2016) — Hank · horizon: coming · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2016-07-22: Hank thinks a new age of the social internet is coming, not immediately, where platforms and users work together to promote good community, kindness and empathy. (hedged: "I do think") — Ending the Age of Outrage (at least in ourselves, if not in the world) 00:03:33
• 2016-08-16 · John predicts the overall US cancer survival rate may reach 70% in 2016 (2016) — John · horizon: 2016 (≈ 2016-12-31) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2016-08-16: John says the overall US cancer survival rate, very close to 70%, might reach that milestone this year (2016). (hedged: "might") — Some Good News: 16 Ways 2016 Is Not a Total Dumpster Fire 00:01:33
• 2016-08-16 · John predicts the global economy will probably grow faster in 2016 than in 2015 (2016) — John · horizon: 2016 (≈ 2016-12-31) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2016-08-16: John says the global economy will probably grow faster this year (2016) than last year (2015). (hedged: "probably") — Some Good News: 16 Ways 2016 Is Not a Total Dumpster Fire 00:02:27
• 2016-08-19 · Hank predicts the Olympics will lose a generation if they don't take up esports now (2016) — Hank · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2016-08-19: Hank says that if the Olympics don't get into esports right now, they are going to lose an entire generation. — 16 Sports that Should Be in the Olympics 00:03:16
• 2016-08-23 · John predicts an internet home for niche sports would be YouTube Sports rather than an ESPN8-style Ocho (2016) — John · horizon: ever · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2016-08-23: John suspects that if the internet ever builds a home for cult-following sports, it will be known as YouTube Sports rather than ESPN8: The Ocho. (hedged: "I suspect") — The Ocho! Sports I Want on TV 00:02:48
• 2016-09-23 · Hank: creators may need to move into subscription-style content for higher-budget work (2016) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2016-09-23: The description says most YouTubers can only supplement other income, creators may need to move to subscription-style content for higher-budget work, and SciShow and Crash Course are secure. (hedged: "It may be that") — How do YouTubers Make Money? video description
  • repeated 2017-04-21 (210 days later): Hank says if the value proposition breaks, creators will find (and already are finding) new support: subscriptions like Rooster Teeth's First, YouTube Red, Patreon, and creator-brand relationships communities like. — The Adpocalypse: What it Means 00:03:12
• 2016-10-11 · John: a US debt spiral is very unlikely whoever becomes president (2016) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2016-10-11: John says the chances of a debt spiral in the United States are very low no matter who becomes president. — Understanding Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton's Tax Plans 00:09:18
• 2016-10-14 · Hank: in time we will move past the politics of fear and do the good work humanity needs (2016) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2016-10-14: Hank predicts that in the fullness of time we will move past the rhetoric of fear and do the good work humanity needs. — Compassion, Weakness, and the 2016 Election 00:03:41
• 2016-10-18 · John: neither Trump's nor Clinton's health plan will significantly reduce overall US health care costs (2016) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2016-10-18: John says the answer to whether either candidate's proposals will significantly reduce the overall cost of US health care is probably not. (hedged: "probably not") — Understanding Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton's Health Care Reform Proposals 00:08:17
• 2016-10-21 · Hank: Denise Juneau is unlikely to win Montana's US House race (2016) — Hank · horizon: 2016 (≈ 2016-12-31) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2016-10-21: In the description Hank says it was always, and remains, unlikely that Juneau will win her race against Ryan Zinke. (hedged: "unlikely") — Coming Out, Goats, Government, and Attack Ads with Denise Juneau video description
• 2016-10-25 · John: the 2016 US presidential election will not be rigged (2016) — John · horizon: 2016 (≈ 2016-12-31) · came true
  • forecast 2016-10-25: John says the US presidential election will not be rigged, any more than the 2004 one was. — Will the U.S. Presidential Election Be Rigged? 00:05:58
  • → came true 2017-09-26 (336 days later): None of this means the election was illegitimate (it wasn't) or that Trump didn't win (he did). — Trump and Russia: An Introduction to What We Know (and What We Don't) 00:02:31
• 2016-11-09 · John: the US faces a tough time in its history after the 2016 election (2016) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2016-11-09: John thinks this will be a tough time in US history, though he hopes it won't be. (hedged: "I think") — My Post-Election Thoughts 00:02:01
• 2016-11-15 · John predicts 2016's hottest-year record will likely be broken in 2017 (2016) — John · horizon: 2017 (≈ 2017-12-31) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2016-11-15: John says 2016's hottest-year record will likely only stand until 2017. (hedged: "likely") — Good News/Bad News: A Pizzamas Video in Nine Slices 00:01:05
• 2016-12-20 · John: giraffes have a reasonably good chance of surviving the Anthropocene because humans like them (2016) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2016-12-20: John thinks giraffes have a reasonably good chance of surviving the Anthropocene, not because of their necks or lion-killing kicks, but because humans like them. (hedged: "I think") — How Giraffes Mate, and Why It Matters 00:02:55

2017 (13)

• 2017-01-10 · John: US labor force participation will keep declining as the population ages (2017) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2017-01-10: John says the participation rate will keep declining as the population ages, whether the economy is good or bad. — What Is the Real Unemployment Rate? 00:01:56
• 2017-01-31 · John: much of the immigration executive order may be moot in three or four months as parts expire (2017) — John · horizon: 2017-05 (≈ 2017-05-31) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2017-01-31: John says much of this may be moot in three or four months as parts of the order expire. (hedged: "may") — Understanding Trump's Executive Order on Immigration 00:06:37
  • later on the channel 2017-02-03: Hank says that as part of Trump's refugee ban, federal funding to local organizations helping refugees find work, training and basics like toothpaste and tampons has been eliminated. — Are We Making Things Worse? 00:02:26
  • later on the channel 2017-03-07: John says an executive order then halted all refugee resettlement into the United States for at least 120 days. — Hoping for an Airport Reunion: One Refugee Family's Story 00:03:00
• 2017-02-07 (said on 2017-02-02, implied) · John: The Hate U Give will be a classic (2017) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2017-02-07 (said on 2017-02-02, implied): John recommends Angie Thomas's The Hate U Give, out later this month (February 2017), which he truly believes will be a classic that even people who don't love books will love. — Good News, YA Books, and Bears: It's Question Tuesday 00:01:56
  • repeated 2017-10-03 (243 days later): Repeating his blurb, John says he truly believes The Hate U Give will be remembered as a classic of our time. — Let's Talk about Books 00:00:00
• 2017-02-14 · John: within 20 years absolute poverty and child mortality may be rare everywhere on Earth (2017) — John · horizon: 2037 (≈ 2037-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2017-02-14: John says that in 20 years, when today's median viewer is his age, absolute poverty and child mortality may be rare everywhere on Earth. (hedged: "it is genuinely possible") — Human Life Is Getting Better. Faster Than Ever Before. 00:03:25
• 2017-03-17 · Hank: Congress will have huge problems with Trump's proposed budget (2017) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2017-03-17: Hank says the budget now goes to the House and Senate to be argued over, and in reality Congress is going to have huge problems with it. — Trump's Budget Explained 00:04:47
• 2017-03-17 · Hank: if Trump's tax cuts go ahead, the budget will be extremely unbalanced even with the cuts (2017) — Hank · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2017-03-17: Hank says that if Trump's tax cuts are taken seriously, even with these cuts it will be an extremely unbalanced budget. — Trump's Budget Explained 00:04:47
• 2017-03-24 · Hank: someday there will be no dam at Glen Canyon (2017) — Hank · horizon: someday · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2017-03-24: Reminded that what goes up must come down, Hank says someday there will be no dam at Glen Canyon, and we can only hope it is removed on purpose. — I Disagree with Me (Thoughts from Lake Powell) 00:04:01
• 2017-04-21 · Hank: YouTube and advertisers will eventually need viewers' eyeballs more than creators need their pennies (2017) — Hank · horizon: eventually · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2017-04-21: Hank warns that YouTube and advertisers must be careful, because eventually they will need viewers' eyeballs more than creators need their pennies. — The Adpocalypse: What it Means 00:03:32
• 2017-05-30 · John: Facebook and Instagram will likely be around for decades, if not centuries (2017) — John · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2017-05-30: John says Facebook and Instagram will likely be around for decades, if not centuries, and many people back up their work and photos to the cloud. (hedged: "likely") — What Should We Keep? 00:02:26
• 2017-06-02 · Hank: without political will from Congress and the President, US emissions cuts will stall (2017) — Hank · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2017-06-02: Hank says that if Congress's majority party and the President deny human-caused climate change and keep investing in Edison-era energy systems, US progress will stall. — The Paris Accord: What is it? And What Does it All Mean? 00:04:48
• 2017-06-16 · Hank: death rates will keep going down, barring catastrophe (2017) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2017-06-16: Hank hopes that, barring something like a catastrophic solar-flare apocalypse, death rates will continue to go down. (hedged: "we hope") — When Will You Die? 00:02:39
• 2017-09-26 · John: the phrase 'thing of value' will come up a lot in the coming months (2017) — John · horizon: coming · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2017-09-26: John expects to hear 'thing of value' a lot in coming months, partly because the courts haven't clearly decided what it means. (hedged: "I suspect") — Trump and Russia: An Introduction to What We Know (and What We Don't) 00:03:02
• 2017-12-12 · John: 2017 may be the second-to-last year any human gets polio (2017) — John · horizon: ever · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2017-12-12: John says it's possible that 2017 will be the second-to-last year (2016) any human ever gets polio; its end will be a huge global health victory won by millions of donors and volunteers. (hedged: "it's possible") — 2017 is the Best? 00:00:26

2018 (10)

• 2018-01-05 · Hank: social media platforms that don't train algorithms to maximize watching will lose out over the next ten years (2018) — Hank · horizon: 2028 (≈ 2028-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2018-01-05: Hank has philosophical problems with a company training neural networks to hack the brain into watching more, but every social platform does it and those that don't will lose out over the next ten years. — Making a Better YouTube 00:01:34
• 2018-01-16 · John: disease is the most likely cause of human extinction, ahead of AI and war (2018) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2018-01-16: John, who thinks about it a fair amount, ranks disease as the most likely way for humans to go extinct, then AI or a post-human species, then an extinction-level war. (hedged: "I think") — My Hollywood Star, Brexit Pears, and Hank's Book: It's QUESTION TUESDAY 00:02:57
• 2018-02-20 · John: Daniel Biss has a very good chance of winning the March 20 Illinois Democratic primary for governor (2018) — John · horizon: 2018-03-20 (≈ 2018-03-20) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2018-02-20: John says Daniel has a very good chance of winning the March 20th Democratic primary, though his opponents are a billionaire who spent tens of millions on ads and a literal Kennedy. (hedged: "has a very good chance") — When Your Friend Runs for Governor 00:02:09
• 2018-04-13 · Hank: as artificial intelligence improves, even small amounts of personal data will be enough to profile people (2018) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2018-04-13: As artificial intelligence improves, even small amounts of data will likely be enough: smaller and smaller signals are becoming clearer. (hedged: "likely") — Who is in Control? 00:02:02
• 2018-05-11 · Hank: a growing share of people will be able to work as professional creators, thanks to fractured fame and new patronage models (2018) — Hank · horizon: not stated · came true
  • forecast 2018-05-11: Hank thinks a growing percentage of people will be able to be professional creators because of the fracturing of fame and the rise of new patronage models. (hedged: "I think") — Looking for Alaska Movie (BUT BETTER) and YouTuber Things 00:02:41
  • repeated 2020-10-16 (2.4 years later): Hank predicts that part of the economy will become a bigger and bigger deal. — Still Riding a Big Wave that I Do not and Cannot Know 00:01:35
  • → came true 2024-08-27 (6.3 years later): John says the culture shift on selling out has let many more people make a living, which he considers good news. — How The Internet Is Rigged 00:03:40
• 2018-06-12 · John: Senegal could reach the semifinals of the 2018 World Cup (2018) — John · horizon: 2018-07 (≈ 2018-07-31) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2018-06-12: Though nobody agrees, John thinks Senegal could reach the semifinals because Sadio Mané is very good, and denies any Liverpool bias. (hedged: "I think") — Your 4-Minute Guide to ALL 32 TEAMS at the 2018 World Cup 00:03:05
  • later on the channel 2018-06-15: That shared denominator unifies us, so Hank is going to try to watch some World Cup this year (2018). — Sports are Dumb video description
• 2018-07-13 · Hank: countries that want nuclear weapons will find it easier to get them (2018) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2018-07-13: The barriers to making nuclear weapons are falling and the penalties less effective, so countries that want them will find them easier to get. — Why Do So Few Countries Have Nukes? 00:07:44
• 2018-08-14 · John: the Looking for Alaska Hulu series will really happen this time (2018) — John · horizon: 2019 (≈ 2019-12-31) · came true
  • forecast 2018-08-14: John says Looking for Alaska is to be adapted into a Hulu limited series; it's still happening, he has read the great first-episode script, and that's all he knows. — Question Tuesday: Secrets & Primes 00:00:29
  • predicted 2018-10-31 (78 days later): John says this time the series is really going to happen, he thinks. (hedged: "I think") — The Looking for Alaska Thing 00:03:17
  • repeated 2019-01-01 (140 days later): That will be hard because the Looking for Alaska Hulu series will probably film this year (2019), as will a movie of Let It Snow, which John wrote with Maureen Johnson and Lauren Myracle. (hedged: "probably") — How to Make Goals, Not Resolutions 00:02:37
  • repeated 2019-03-12 (210 days later): John says the eight-episode Hulu adaptation of his first novel, Looking for Alaska, is supposed to begin shooting soon. (hedged: "is supposed to") — Going Home with Alaska and Miles 00:00:00
  • repeated 2019-10-08 (1.2 years later): John says this time the series is going to happen, he thinks. (hedged: "I think") — Looking for Alaska (...with Alaska) 00:00:29
  • → came true 2019-10-15 (1.2 years later): John says the Looking for Alaska show comes out on Friday or Saturday and its reviews so far have been really good. — I'm Having a Lot of Feelings 00:00:29
  • → came true 2019-11-01 (1.2 years later): John says the Looking for Alaska TV series has just come out and is really wonderful. — On Looking Up to Your Little Brother 00:01:41
  • later on the channel 2019-03-26: John says meeting all the actors and seeing all the sets for the Looking for Alaska show has been really amazing. — Optimism and Spider People: Question Tuesday from the Looking for Alaska Set 00:00:58
  • later on the channel 2019-06-04: John was backstage at BookCon for the game's last minutes; Kristine Froseth, who plays Alaska in the Hulu Looking for Alaska show, filmed him nervous and excited. — On Sharing the Walk 00:01:59
• 2018-11-02 · John: the first person will set foot on Mars in his lifetime (2018) — John · horizon: lifetime · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2018-11-02: John expects to live to see the first person set foot on Mars, an astonishing feat but the obvious continuation of what humans have always done. (hedged: "I expect") — Let Us Now Praise the Panda Person 00:00:29
• 2018-12-04 · Hank: climate change will make life worse, by an amount not yet known (2018) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2018-12-04: Hank says the world is going to be worse: there will be climate refugees, and the global situation will probably destabilize somewhat as we deal with the problem. (hedged: "Probably") — When it All Seems Like Too Much 00:01:04
  • predicted 2021-08-13 (2.7 years later): Climate change is going to make life worse, but we do not know how much worse. — How We Fix the Climate 00:01:56
  • repeated 2022-07-29 (3.7 years later): Hank says human infrastructure assumes rainfall and temperature stay as they were; as they change, crop yields might fall and leave people hungry, power grids fail under air conditioning, and forests burn. (hedged: "might") — How Climate Change /Actually/ Works...in 4 Minutes 00:00:46
  • repeated 2023-10-04 (4.8 years later): Hank says heat is a big part of the problem (not all: ocean acidification would not be helped) and is already making life harder, getting worse decade by decade for a while. — A Messy and Unhinged Introduction to Geoengineering 00:04:06
  • repeated 2025-07-25 (6.6 years later): Asked whether we will escape the effects of climate change, Hank says no: we are experiencing them now and are past the point of no negative impacts. — The Molecule that Changed Everything 00:06:28

2019 (14)

• 2019-02-05 · John: deepfakes will soon catch up with reality (2019) — John · horizon: soon · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2019-02-05: John grants that today's fakes can still be spotted, but says 2019 deepfakes look better than 2007 YouTube reality and it won't take them long to catch up. — Deepfake: A Brief History of Unreliable Images 00:00:29
• 2019-04-09 · John: as Sierra Leoneans trust mental health care, demand for its services will keep rising (2019) — John · horizon: not stated · came true
  • forecast 2019-04-09: John predicts that as Sierra Leoneans come to trust mental health care to work, demand for services will keep rising, bringing new challenges. — The Only Psychiatric Hospital in Sierra Leone 00:04:05
  • → came true 2020-01-28 (294 days later): John says access to mental health care in Kono has dramatically increased, and people with cancer or type 1 diabetes, until recently death sentences, are now treated there. — Looking Away (Again) 00:03:48
  • → came true 2021-04-20 (2.0 years later): The mental health clinic is growing, as is a new clinic for adolescent care. — Breaking Ground!!! 00:01:16
• 2019-10-22 · John: as a teaching hospital the Maternal Center of Excellence will train the next generation of Sierra Leonean health care workers (2019) — John · horizon: not stated · came true
  • forecast 2019-10-22: John says the plan includes building and supporting a Maternal Center of Excellence at Koidu Government Hospital, with a NICU, more C-section operating rooms and a teaching hospital. — Why We're Donating $6,500,000 00:03:54
  • repeated 2020-11-17 (1.1 years later): As a teaching hospital, the MCOE will train the next generation of Sierra Leonean health workers, from doctors and nurses to community health workers. — Our Biggest Project Yet: A One Year Update 00:04:14
  • predicted 2021-04-20 (1.5 years later): As a teaching hospital, the MCOE will train the next generation of Sierra Leonean health care workers. — Breaking Ground!!! 00:01:16
  • repeated 2022-09-13 (2.9 years later): Most of the money goes to building, staffing, maintaining and supplying the Maternal Center of Excellence, a teaching hospital in Koidu; some supports primary health care, especially in Kayima. — A Million Things at Once 00:02:34
  • repeated 2022-11-15 (3.1 years later): John explains that PIH and Sierra Leone's Ministry of Health planned the Maternal Center of Excellence, a maternal and infant wing of Koidu Government Hospital with a blood bank, surgical suites for safe C-sections and a teaching role. — 3 Years In: What Happened, Why, and What's Next 00:00:29
  • repeated 2023-05-02 (3.5 years later): The MCOE will also be a teaching hospital where a new generation of midwives, nurses and doctors will train. — GOOD NEWS 00:02:26
  • repeated 2024-06-18 (4.7 years later): For PIH and the Ministry of Health, radically reducing maternal mortality meant everything from hiring many community health workers to building a teaching maternal and infant care center at Koidu Government Hospital. — The Tea 00:00:29
  • partly came true 2024-11-26 (5.1 years later): There are more OB/GYNs in the region, with more being trained all the time, because Koidu Government Hospital serves as a teaching hospital. — Good News 00:03:09
  • repeated 2025-05-13 (5.6 years later): John says the MCOE will be a world-class training facility that strengthens and supports Sierra Leone's health care workforce. — I Have the BEST News 00:04:02
  • repeated 2025-10-31 (6.0 years later): Hank says the MCOE, built and staffed by Sierra Leoneans, invests not only in community health but in the economy, medical education and health infrastructure of Sierra Leone and Kono District. — We Did It… 00:06:45
  • → came true 2026-02-20 (6.3 years later): The description asks viewers for a one-time or monthly donation to keep the MCOE funded, staffed and training healthcare workers, at act.pih.org/hankandjohn. — What We Actually Did. video description
  • → came true 2026-04-14 (6.5 years later): John says that as a teaching facility the MCOE is training nurses, midwives and doctors to spread what they learn across the country. — Babies. Babies. Babies. 00:02:55
  • → came true 2026-04-28 (6.5 years later): John says the facility is training the next generation of Sierra Leonean nurses, midwives and doctors. — What I Can't Show You 00:03:24
• 2019-10-31 · Hank: A Beautifully Foolish Endeavor will probably be over 400 pages (2019) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2019-10-31: The first book is 330-something pages; the sequel will probably be over 400, a more involved story with more happening and more points of view. (hedged: "probably") — Book News! 00:01:27
• 2019-10-31 · Hank: the cover of A Beautifully Foolish Endeavor will be orange (2019) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2019-10-31: Hank thinks the cover will be orange. (hedged: "I think") — Book News! 00:02:31
• 2019-10-31 · Hank: A Beautifully Foolish Endeavor will hit bookshelves within 12 months (2019) — Hank · horizon: 2020-10 (≈ 2020-10-31) · came true
  • forecast 2019-10-31: Hank hopes the book will be on shelves within the next 12 months. (hedged: "I hope") — Book News! 00:03:30
  • repeated 2019-11-29 (29 days later): Hank announces his new book, A Beautifully Foolish Endeavor, out July 7, 2020, with pre-order links and a synopsis in the description; he'll talk about it more soon. — My Most Controversial Opinion 00:03:07
  • repeated 2019-12-20 (50 days later): Chapter three, where questions start getting answered, will have to wait for the book's release on July 7, 2020. — Reading the First Chapter of A Beautifully Foolish Endeavor 00:03:27
  • → came true 2020-07-07 (250 days later): A Beautifully Foolish Endeavor is available now wherever books are sold, and they launch it tonight at 7pm at youtube.com/vlogbrothers. — You're a Rock Star 00:03:13
• 2019-11-19 · John: Kylie Jenner's 'rise and shine' trademark applications might not be approved (2019) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2019-11-19: John says the trademark applications might not be approved, because several other companies already hold rise-and-shine-related trademarks. (hedged: "which they might not be") — Kylie Jenner Shows Me What's Wrong with Reddit 00:01:26
• 2019-11-19 · John: if Kylie Jenner's 'rise and shine' trademarks are granted, her company will be legally required to send many cease and desist letters (2019) — John · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2019-11-19: John says the lawyer-vetted statement avoids the fact that if the trademarks are granted, Jenner's company will be legally required to send many cease and desist letters, possibly to small t-shirt sellers. — Kylie Jenner Shows Me What's Wrong with Reddit 00:02:51
• 2019-11-19 · John: until nuance draws as many upvotes as outrage, we will be swimming in misinformation (2019) — John · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2019-11-19: John says nuance is less likely than outrage to get 129,000 upvotes, and until that changes we will be swimming in misinformation. — Kylie Jenner Shows Me What's Wrong with Reddit 00:03:48
• 2019-11-26 · John: YouTube will someday probably move the comments section to a sidebar (2019) — John · horizon: someday · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2019-11-26: John predicts YouTube will someday probably move comments to a sidebar, so his pointing down at the comments will look like pointing at his pants. (hedged: "probably") — old fashioned parts video 00:02:44
• 2019-11-26 · John: someday YouTube will not exist at all (2019) — John · horizon: someday · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2019-11-26: John adds that someday YouTube will not exist at all. — old fashioned parts video 00:02:51
• 2019-11-29 · Hank: DFTBA won't sell a lot of Hank-erchiefs (2019) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2019-11-29: Because they made a Pizza John bandana this year (2019), DFTBA is now also doing a 'Hank-erchief'; Hank doesn't expect to sell many but they had to make the joke. (playful) — My Most Controversial Opinion 00:03:38
• 2019-12-17 · John: he will probably never again see Hank in a tuxedo (2019) — John · horizon: never · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2019-12-17: John jokes he'll probably never again see Hank in a tuxedo, so he is glad he took the chance. (playful) (hedged: "probably") — The Best Days of My Decade 00:00:44
• 2019-12-27 · Hank: the 2020 election year will be stressful (2019) — Hank · horizon: 2020 (≈ 2020-12-31) · came true
  • forecast 2019-12-27: Hank says 2020 is an election year and will be stressful because of it; election years always are. — Why I'm Worried about 2020 00:01:10
  • → came true 2020-10-30 (308 days later): Hank says he looked up these searches because he doesn't know how to handle this moment; this will be a rough weekend for him. — Four Years Ago 00:03:05

2020 (73)

• 2020-01-03 (said on 2020-01-02, implied) · Hank: the $3 Kindle price of An Absolutely Remarkable Thing won't last much longer (2020) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-01-03 (said on 2020-01-02, implied): Hank doesn't think the cheap ebook price will last much longer. (hedged: "I don't think") — Re-Thinking our YouTube Channel 00:03:46
• 2020-01-07 · John: the Maternal Center of Excellence will dramatically change the quality of care for women and children in its region (2020) — John · horizon: not stated · came true
  • forecast 2020-01-07: John says Partners In Health needs $20 million to break ground on the Maternal Center of Excellence, which will dramatically improve healthcare for women and children in Sierra Leone. — Endings · Beginnings 00:00:48
  • repeated 2021-04-20 (1.3 years later): John says the MCOE will dramatically change the quality of care available to women and children in the region. — Breaking Ground!!! 00:00:29
  • repeated 2023-05-02 (3.3 years later): Helped by the nearly $40 million Nerdfighteria and PIH raised over three and a half years, the MCOE will be the world-class center Kono's mothers and children deserve. — GOOD NEWS 00:01:27
  • repeated 2025-05-13 (5.4 years later): John says it will start with inpatient care, phase in outpatients, and as a teaching facility dramatically improve care for babies and moms in eastern Sierra Leone. — I Have the BEST News 00:02:59
  • repeated 2026-02-24 (6.1 years later): John calls the MCOE a real game changer for maternal and child health in the region. — Risk Is a Privilege 00:00:29
  • → came true 2026-04-14 (6.3 years later): John is reminded that long-term problems demand long-term solutions: after seven years with Partners In Health and Sierra Leone's Ministry of Health, they are seeing the transformation. — Babies. Babies. Babies. 00:03:24
  • → came true 2026-04-28 (6.3 years later): John lists the MCOE's piped oxygen, a laundry still under construction, 120 maternal beds and the nation's first NICU, and says it has transformed the care possible in Kono and Sierra Leone. — What I Can't Show You 00:02:55
• 2020-01-07 · John: finishing the Maternal Center of Excellence fundraising may not be realistic in 2020 (2020) — John · horizon: 2020 (≈ 2020-12-31) · proved wrong
  • forecast 2020-01-07: John's most important 2020 goal is to finish raising the money, though maybe 2020 isn't realistic for it. (hedged: "maybe") — Endings · Beginnings 00:01:17
  • → proved wrong 2020-12-29 (357 days later): Despite all the unforeseen events of the year, the goal of raising the money for the Maternal Center of Excellence was reached. — Looking Back at My 2020 Goals 00:02:50
  • recalled 2022-01-04 (2.0 years later): Nerdfighteria is large but not that large, and reaching such an ambitious target faster than even the rosiest projections shows what such communities can accomplish. — After 15 Years on YouTube, THIS IS THE MOST AMAZING THING 00:01:27
• 2020-01-14 · John: the film Cats will make him cry when he sees it (2020) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-01-14: John says every movie makes him cry; he hasn't seen Cats yet but is sure it will. — Foolish · Beautiful 00:03:39
• 2020-01-17 · Hank: the community-built business plan might work (2020) — Hank · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-01-17: The description says Hank is a little nervous about the plan: maybe it will work, maybe not, but he thinks it might, and if it does it will be fun. (hedged: "I think it might") — It's Like Shark Tank, but for Charity video description
• 2020-01-31 · Hank: the James Webb Space Telescope will launch in March 2021 (2020) — Hank · horizon: 2021-03 (≈ 2021-03-31) · proved wrong
  • forecast 2020-01-31: The description says the image maps candidates for other telescopes, especially the infrared James Webb Space Telescope, which will launch, fingers crossed, in March 2021. (hedged: "fingers crossed") — How Many Stars are in the Sky? video description
  • → proved wrong 2021-12-24 (1.9 years later): The launch is scheduled for Christmas morning at 7:20 a.m. Eastern Time. — 29 Days of Astronomical Terror 00:03:24
• 2020-02-07 · Hank: we will probably never find liquid water on Mars (2020) — Hank · horizon: never · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-02-07: Hank says we are probably never going to find liquid water on Mars, and there is already enough confusion about the water situation there. (hedged: "probably") — GET BUSY WITH THE FIZZY 00:00:58
• 2020-02-25 · John: the one-like-per-ten-views ratio will probably not hold for this video (2020) — John · horizon: not stated · conditional · came true
  • forecast 2020-02-25: Feeling as nervous as if asking someone to prom, John asks viewers to click like to break the cycle or find the ratio is real; probably not, but he asks them to like it so he can disprove the theory. (hedged: "Probably not") — A weird YouTube thing? 00:03:20
  • → came true 2020-02-25 (same video): In comment updates John reports the 1:10 ratio is dead: at 17 hours the video had 107,000 views and 47,000 likes, about 1:2.2, with views about 35% above normal. — A weird YouTube thing?
  • recalled 2026-09-15 (6.6 years later): John says the ratio holds only if you don't ask people to like your video, which the brothers don't, because there are more interesting calls to action. — YouTube Says This Video Has 683,183 Views, It Actually Has 312,584 00:00:29
• 2020-02-28 · Hank: there will be no signed copies of A Beautifully Foolish Endeavor for markets outside the US this year (2020) — Hank · horizon: 2020 (≈ 2020-12-31) · proved wrong
  • forecast 2020-02-28: The description says Hank did signed copies for other markets last year (2019) but doesn't think that will happen this year (2020); he is at the mercy of how publishing works. (hedged: "I don't think") — I'M FINE EVERYTHING IS FINE video description
  • repeated 2020-04-24 (56 days later): The description says signed copies are available only in the US, with signed copies also at local and indie bookstores. — The Sharpest Tool in the Shed video description
  • → proved wrong 2020-06-12 (105 days later): Hank says signed editions of A Beautifully Foolish Endeavor can now be pre-ordered at Waterstones in the UK. — Fed to the Rules 00:02:59
• 2020-03-03 · John: the Vlogbrothers like-to-view ratio will revert to the mean (2020) — John · horizon: not stated · came true
  • forecast 2020-03-03: Asked in comments how the like/view ratio is holding up, John says it holds incredibly well on the Art Assignment video; here it is still a little off because people are conscious of it, but reverting to the mean. — Consciously Experiencing Human Dignity
  • → came true 2026-09-15 (6.5 years later): John says that on their channel, consistently over 20 years, one person liked a video for every 10 who watched it: the ratio he once made a video about. — YouTube Says This Video Has 683,183 Views, It Actually Has 312,584 00:00:29
• 2020-03-10 · John: he probably won't see TikToks about himself unless The New York Times reports them (2020) — John · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-03-10: John says he probably won't see any TikToks about himself unless they are reported in The New York Times, where he gets his TikTok news. (playful) (hedged: "probably") — A Strong but Fleeting Flavor: A Reunion Video 00:03:36
• 2020-03-17 · John: the COVID-19 pandemic will put many people at risk of serious illness and death (2020) — John · horizon: not stated · came true
  • forecast 2020-03-17: John says it is now clear the pandemic will put many people at risk of serious illness and death. — together. 00:01:56
  • → came true 2020-07-14 (119 days later): The last 12 weeks have been the deadliest 12-week period in the US in many decades, yet people still call it a hoax. — The ice we skate is getting pretty thin. 00:01:27
• 2020-03-20 · Hank: the world will eventually reach a stable new normal after the COVID-19 disruption (2020) — Hank · horizon: eventually · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-03-20: Hank predicts that people will eventually reach a new normal and stability after the pandemic, though it will take a long time. — The Sudden Obliteration of Expectation 00:09:27
• 2020-03-27 · Hank: Montana's closure of nonessential businesses will likely last beyond April 10 (2020) — Hank · horizon: 2020-04-10 (≈ 2020-04-10) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-03-27: The description says Montana has asked nonessential businesses to close until at least April 10th, likely longer, and that DFTBA will re-open. (hedged: "likely") — Take a Break with Some Feather Stars video description
• 2020-03-31 · John: the COVID-19 pandemic's disruption will end and we will get through it (2020) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-03-31: In a reply to a struggling high school student, John says this will end and we will get through it. — Let's take a walk.
  • repeated 2021-02-16 (322 days later): For the first time in John's life everyone knows what 'it' refers to; it is hard, a grind, isolating and exhausting, and also temporary. — A Lovely Winter Walk 00:01:56
• 2020-04-07 · John: Sarah's virtual book tour will still be wonderful (2020) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-04-07: Sarah's virtual book tour starts next week (week of 13 April 2020); not the tour she long imagined, but still wonderful, fitting a book about working with what you have and building meaning together. — I am an artist. 00:03:24
  • later on the channel 2020-12-29: Sarah's book You Are an Artist and Hank's A Beautifully Foolish Endeavor both came out, but the touring John planned for them did not happen. — Looking Back at My 2020 Goals 00:01:56
  • later on the channel 2021-11-16: Recalling a passage from You Are an Artist, John says Dürer's 1515 rhinoceros etching shows plates of armor with rivets; Dürer had never seen a rhinoceros, only a description and a small sketch. — Orbital Sunrise: The First Art Made in Space 00:00:00
• 2020-04-10 · Hank: the COVID-19 pandemic's economic fallout will hit very unevenly (2020) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-04-10: Hank says the economic fallout is going to hit very unevenly. — Things I'm Finding Encouraging 00:02:40
• 2020-04-10 · Hank: the COVID-19 pandemic will make countries even more nationalistic (2020) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-04-10: Hank worries that at a moment that calls for international cooperation, the pandemic will make us even more nationalistic. (hedged: "I'm worried") — Things I'm Finding Encouraging 00:02:45
• 2020-04-10 · Hank: later 'it wasn't as bad as they said' messages will work against experts (2020) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-04-10: Hank worries that later, dealing with the repercussions, messages that it wasn't as bad as experts said will work. (hedged: "I'm worried") — Things I'm Finding Encouraging 00:02:53
• 2020-04-17 · Hank: the red handfish may possibly share the smooth handfish's fate of extinction (2020) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-04-17: Hank says the red handfish could possibly share the smooth handfish's fate. (hedged: "Possibly") — The Rarest Fish in the World is an Anglerfish! 00:02:30
• 2020-05-08 · Hank: None Pizza with Left Hank may outsell None Pizza with Left John before its sale ends (2020) — Hank · horizon: 2020-05-10 (≈ 2020-05-10) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-05-08: Hank says None Pizza with Left Hank, on sale for about two more days, may outsell None Pizza with Left John. (hedged: "maybe") — The years start coming and they don't stop coming! 00:02:27
• 2020-05-15 · Hank: only a couple more Bizarre Beasts videos are left on Vlogbrothers (2020) — Hank · horizon: not stated · came true
  • forecast 2020-05-15: Hank thinks he has only a couple more Bizarre Beasts videos left on Vlogbrothers. (hedged: "I think") — Lookin' Kinda Dumb! 00:02:55
  • → came true 2020-06-26 (42 days later): Hank presents the twelfth and concluding Vlogbrothers Bizarre Beast before the series moves to its own channel. — You Might as Well Swim! 00:00:00
• 2020-05-26 · John: through shared expertise we will get better at treating and preventing COVID-19 (2020) — John · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-05-26: John says that over time, through shared expertise, we will get better at treating and preventing COVID-19, until someone writes a book about what we didn't know but found out. — you'll never know 00:03:24
• 2020-05-29 · Hank: people won't follow celebrities to Quibi (2020) — Hank · horizon: not stated · came true
  • forecast 2020-05-29: Hank says Quibi misunderstands celebrity: a star may inform which movie people see, but people won't follow a celebrity to a new platform because they don't care much about celebrities. — Get Paid 00:01:15
  • → came true 2020-07-17 (49 days later): Hank says that during quarantine Quibi, despite billions of dollars spent on the most talented creators, flopped ("blehh") while TikTok took off. — So Much to See 00:02:28
• 2020-06-12 · Hank: the all-digital A Beautifully Foolish Endeavor book tour will be fun and weird (2020) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-06-12: Hank says the all-digital book tour is going to be fun and weird. — Fed to the Rules 00:03:28
• 2020-06-16 (said on 2020-06-07, implied) · John: his paddle back upstream from Wallet Island will take about three times as long and be a fifth as much fun (2020) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-06-16 (said on 2020-06-07, implied): Having gone downstream all along, John expects the way back to take about three times as long and be about a fifth as much fun, though still some fun. (playful) — a cool place 00:00:54
• 2020-07-21 · John: Koidu Government Hospital's special baby care unit will open later in July 2020 (2020) — John · horizon: 2020-07 (≈ 2020-07-31) · came true
  • forecast 2020-07-21: Later this month (July 2020) a special baby care unit opens at Koidu Government Hospital, which John calls a huge milestone for infant care. — Somebody Once Asked . . . 00:01:56
  • → came true 2021-04-20 (273 days later): Change is already happening: in the last year neonatal mortality at Koidu Government Hospital fell by 50% thanks to a new infant care unit. — Breaking Ground!!! 00:00:29
  • recalled 2023-05-02 (2.8 years later): A special care baby unit at Koidu's hospital has already dramatically reduced child mortality. — GOOD NEWS 00:04:23
• 2020-07-24 · Hank: Journey to the Microcosmos will soon do an episode just on Lacrymaria (2020) — Hank · horizon: soon · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-07-24: Journey to the Microcosmos has not done an episode just on Lacrymaria, which features in its predation episodes; Hank thinks they will do one soon. (hedged: "I think") — Could I Spare some Change for Gas? 00:02:47
• 2020-07-31 · Hank: all-online college will be less valuable while schools do not lower prices (2020) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-07-31: Hank says college will be less valuable as an all-online experience, yet schools are not lowering prices. — Your Brain Gets Smart, but Your Head Gets Dumb 00:00:42
• 2020-07-31 · Hank: US higher education will survive its 2020 crisis by reckoning with its out-of-control budgets (2020) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-07-31: Hank has hope: he thinks higher education will survive by accepting that it has done tremendous good while letting budgets balloon, competing like businesses for customers instead of educating students. (hedged: "I think") — Your Brain Gets Smart, but Your Head Gets Dumb 00:02:23
  • repeated 2021-03-05 (217 days later): Disastrous as the year has been for education, Hank says it feels a bit like a wake-up call that its cost need not rise dramatically every year; there might be other ways. (hedged: "might") — How Much Hope is OK? 00:00:35
• 2020-07-31 · Hank: a change in how US higher education works will have to happen quite quickly (2020) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-07-31: Hank says we are at the very beginning of a change in how higher education works, which must be done thoughtfully and carefully though it has to happen quickly; that is why he is worried. — Your Brain Gets Smart, but Your Head Gets Dumb 00:03:12
• 2020-08-21 · Hank: long term, humanity will handle its big problems (2020) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-08-21: In the description Hank says humans are hyper-adaptable problem-solving machines and long term we've got this, though there will be a lot of bad along the way. — The Water's Getting Warm video description
• 2020-08-21 · Hank: the COVID-19 pandemic will bring a fairly significant period of slow or declining economic growth (2020) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-08-21: No one knows the end result, but Hank finds it easy to imagine a fairly significant period of slow or even declining economic growth. (hedged: "it's not hard to imagine") — The Water's Getting Warm 00:01:44
• 2020-08-21 · Hank: during the pandemic slowdown the world will have fewer resources to free itself from the carbon economy (2020) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-08-21: Meanwhile we won't be focused on climate change, understandably, and won't have the resources we otherwise would have had to free ourselves from the carbon economy. — The Water's Getting Warm 00:02:14
• 2020-08-21 · Hank: the ultimate impact of the pandemic's standout bad actors may never be known (2020) — Hank · horizon: never · no report on the channel · not counted (sincere)
  • forecast 2020-08-21: There are some standout 'crap faces', but we don't know, and may never know, the ultimate impact of their terrible behavior. (explicitly uncertain) — The Water's Getting Warm 00:02:43
• 2020-08-25 · John: SpaceX may send a rocket to Mars in 2026, if still solvent and growing (2020) — John · horizon: 2026 (≈ 2026-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · conditional · no report on the channel · not counted (sincere)
  • forecast 2020-08-25: In a comment John guesses SpaceX might send a rocket to Mars in 2026, assuming it is still solvent and growing, and notes even SpaceX has stopped saying 2022. (speculative) — Somebody once told me…
• 2020-08-25 · John: SpaceX will not send a ship to Mars in 2022 (2020) — John · horizon: in 2022 (≈ 2022-12-31) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-08-25: Against the TikTok's claim that SpaceX sends its first ship to Mars in 2022, John says SpaceX is not sending a ship to Mars in 2022. — Somebody once told me… 00:01:56
• 2020-09-01 · John: The Anthropocene Reviewed book will be available to pre-order on Bookshop.org within a couple of days (2020) — John · horizon: 2020-09-03 (≈ 2020-09-03) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel · not counted (sincere)
  • forecast 2020-09-01: In a comment John says the book can not yet be pre-ordered on Bookshop.org, which awaits a third-party data feed, and hopes it will be possible within a couple of days. (speculative) — get the show on
• 2020-09-01 · John: The Anthropocene Reviewed book will probably be published in Brazil (2020) — John · horizon: not stated · came true · not counted (sincere)
  • forecast 2020-09-01: In a comment John thinks the book will be available in Brazil and says he really hopes his Brazilian publisher Intrinseca will publish it. (speculative) — get the show on
  • → came true 2021-10-06 (1.1 years later): John's book The Anthropocene Reviewed comes out in Brazil this week (week of 4 October 2021); unable to go there because of the state of the world, he celebrates in Brazil, Indiana. — Searching for Betsy in Brazil 00:00:00
• 2020-09-01 · John: copies of The Anthropocene Reviewed book ordered outside the US and Canada will probably not be signed (2020) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-09-01: John says copies ordered from outside the US or Canada, even the American English edition, will probably not be signed, because international printing and shipping systems don't allow it. (hedged: "probably") — get the show on 00:01:56
  • repeated 2021-04-20 (231 days later): If someone abroad manages to order the US edition, John thinks it will be signed but can't promise, given international copyright and shipping. (hedged: "I think it will be signed, but I can't promise") — Breaking Ground!!! 00:02:44
• 2020-09-18 · Hank: if life is found on another planet, we will quickly tell whether it is related to Earth life (2020) — Hank · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-09-18: The description says that if life is found on another planet, we will be able to figure out pretty quickly whether it is related to life on Earth. — They Say it Gets Colder video description
  • repeated 2025-09-12 (5.0 years later): Hank says we could probably tell whether Martian life had its own biochemistry or shared a single origin with Earth life. (hedged: "probably") — This Might Actually be Happening 00:12:31
• 2020-09-18 · Hank: a mission to Venus's upper atmosphere to confirm life will happen in his lifetime (2020) — Hank · horizon: lifetime · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-09-18: Hank imagines a mission to Venus's upper atmosphere will happen in his lifetime, which he finds super exciting. (hedged: "I imagine") — They Say it Gets Colder 00:02:38
• 2020-10-13 (said on 2020-10-05, implied) · John: on October 13, 2020 it will be unseasonably warm in Indianapolis (2020) — John · horizon: 2020-10-13 (≈ 2020-10-13) · proved wrong
  • forecast 2020-10-13 (said on 2020-10-05, implied): Using modeling and data, John predicts that on upload day it is unseasonably warm in Indianapolis. — Me from the Past: A Pizzamas Miracle 00:00:58
  • → proved wrong 2020-10-14 (9 days later): Hank says Indianapolis was not really unseasonably warm, only about three degrees warmer than usual, so he calls John's prediction a miss. — John Predicts the Future! 00:00:00
• 2020-10-13 (said on 2020-10-05, implied) · John: US newly diagnosed COVID-19 cases on October 12, 2020 will be about 10 to 12% higher than a week earlier (2020) — John · horizon: 2020-10-12 (≈ 2020-10-12) · came true
  • forecast 2020-10-13 (said on 2020-10-05, implied): John predicts that US newly diagnosed COVID cases the day before upload were higher than a week earlier, probably by around 10 to 12%. (hedged: "probably") — Me from the Past: A Pizzamas Miracle 00:00:58
  • → came true 2020-10-14 (9 days later): Hank reports US new COVID cases rose week to week from 41,601 to 45,791, almost exactly 10%, so John's prediction was a win. — John Predicts the Future! 00:00:29
• 2020-10-13 (said on 2020-10-05, implied) · John: about 40 people will buy the Pizza John shirt on October 13, 2020 (2020) — John · horizon: 2020-10-13 (≈ 2020-10-13) · proved wrong
  • forecast 2020-10-13 (said on 2020-10-05, implied): John predicts about 40 people will buy the Pizza John shirt on upload day, and tells viewers not to be afraid to beat that expectation. (hedged: "probably") — Me from the Past: A Pizzamas Miracle 00:01:27
  • → proved wrong 2020-10-14 (9 days later): Hank says they blew John's shirt prediction out of the water, selling more than 95, an example of how imagining the future affects the future. — John Predicts the Future! 00:00:58
• 2020-10-13 (said on 2020-10-05, implied) · John: AFC Wimbledon might draw their game against Swindon Town (2020) — John · horizon: not stated · proved wrong · not counted (sincere)
  • forecast 2020-10-13 (said on 2020-10-05, implied): With some data but not enough, John guesses AFC Wimbledon might eke out a draw against Swindon Town based on current form. (speculative) — Me from the Past: A Pizzamas Miracle 00:01:27
  • → proved wrong 2020-10-14 (9 days later): Hank reports AFC Wimbledon had a single shot on target against Swindon Town, and it went in. — John Predicts the Future! 00:00:58
• 2020-10-13 (said on 2020-10-05, implied) · John: the upcoming presidential debate will be much discussed on October 13, 2020 (2020) — John · horizon: 2020-10-13 (≈ 2020-10-13) · came true
  • forecast 2020-10-13 (said on 2020-10-05, implied): From scheduled events, John suspects the upcoming presidential debate is being much discussed in the viewers' present. (hedged: "I suspect") — Me from the Past: A Pizzamas Miracle 00:01:27
  • → came true 2020-10-14 (9 days later): Hank calls John's prediction that the upcoming debate would be much discussed a great prediction. — John Predicts the Future! 00:01:28
• 2020-10-13 (said on 2020-10-05, implied) · John: news of the President's COVID-19 hospitalization will not feel big eight days later (2020) — John · horizon: 2020-10-13 (≈ 2020-10-13) · came true
  • forecast 2020-10-13 (said on 2020-10-05, implied): John suspects that news, very big to him, will not feel big to viewers eight days later because news cycles are moving much faster. (hedged: "I suspect") — Me from the Past: A Pizzamas Miracle 00:01:56
  • → came true 2020-10-14 (9 days later): Hank says John was right: the President's COVID hospitalization is somehow no longer a big deal in our minds. — John Predicts the Future! 00:01:57
• 2020-10-13 (said on 2020-10-05, implied) · John: in eight days Twitter, Reddit and Facebook will be dumpster fires he cannot stop refreshing (2020) — John · horizon: 2020-10-13 (≈ 2020-10-13) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-10-13 (said on 2020-10-05, implied): Among vague predictions that are always accurate, John predicts Twitter, Reddit and Facebook will be dumpster fires he can't stop refreshing unless he physically leaves the internet. (playful) — Me from the Past: A Pizzamas Miracle 00:02:26
• 2020-10-13 (said on 2020-10-05, implied) · John: social platforms will keep showing feeds that increase uncertainty and fear (2020) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-10-13 (said on 2020-10-05, implied): John predicts the platforms will keep recognizing that usage rises with uncertainty and fear, so the feeds they show us will increase that uncertainty and fear. — Me from the Past: A Pizzamas Miracle 00:02:26
• 2020-10-13 (said on 2020-10-05, implied) · John: in eight days people will feel there is cause for alarm (2020) — John · horizon: 2020-10-13 (≈ 2020-10-13) · came true
  • forecast 2020-10-13 (said on 2020-10-05, implied): John predicts that we will feel there is cause for alarm. — Me from the Past: A Pizzamas Miracle 00:02:26
  • → came true 2020-10-14 (9 days later): Hank tells John there is, and continues to be, cause for alarm. — John Predicts the Future! 00:02:26
• 2020-10-13 (said on 2020-10-05, implied) · John: in eight days there will be cause for alarm (2020) — John · horizon: 2020-10-13 (≈ 2020-10-13) · came true
  • forecast 2020-10-13 (said on 2020-10-05, implied): John also predicts that there will be cause for alarm. — Me from the Past: A Pizzamas Miracle 00:02:26
  • → came true 2020-10-14 (9 days later): Hank tells John there is, and continues to be, cause for alarm. — John Predicts the Future! 00:02:26
• 2020-10-14 · Hank: 2020 will be one of the coolest years of the next hundred (2020) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-10-14: Hank adds that it is unseasonably warm most days in most places: 2020 is one of the warmest years of the last hundred, or one of the coolest of the next hundred. — John Predicts the Future! 00:00:29
• 2020-10-16 · Hank: the online creator economy will have a lot of inequality built into it (2020) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-10-16: Hank predicts it will have a lot of inequality built in, millions of people taking half the money and a handful of billionaires the other half, something we should be aware of. — Still Riding a Big Wave that I Do not and Cannot Know 00:01:35
• 2020-10-16 · Hank: much of the creator economy will be awful and destructive, but most of it will be good (2020) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-10-16: Hank predicts much of the stuff in this economy will be awful and destructive, but most of it will be good; he is excited and a little worried. — Still Riding a Big Wave that I Do not and Cannot Know 00:01:35
• 2020-10-23 · Hank: the 2020 US election will be interpreted as a judgment on the last four years (2020) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-10-23: Reason nine: this big election will and should be read as a judgment on the last four years, internationally and in how we treat each other; we vote for a story, not just people. — 10 Reasons to Vote RIGHT NOW 00:02:26
  • repeated 2020-11-06 (said on 2020-11-05, implied) (13 days later): Hank thinks that if Biden is ultimately elected, many people will see it as a failure of Trumpism. (hedged: "I think") — Just Some Election Thoughts… 00:00:58
• 2020-10-27 · John: Joe Biden as president would listen with empathy, build teams of experts rather than concentrate power, and lead with decency (2020) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-10-27: John thinks Biden would be a fundamentally different president: listening with empathy, building teams of experts instead of concentrating power, leading with decency and humanity. — The time I met Joe Biden 00:02:55
  • later on the channel 2021-08-13: President Biden has said he will not sign his $1.2 billion infrastructure package unless there is also a climate plan on his desk; 'here's hoping'. — How We Fix the Climate 00:14:07
  • later on the channel 2022-04-05: Several years ago Joe Biden asked John to co-host a stop on his book tour; Biden was so empathetic and careful a listener that John made a whole video about it. — Celebrities I've Met and Whether I'd Vote for Them??? 00:01:27
• 2020-10-30 · Hank: the 2020 US election will not end the pandemic, injustice, conspiracy theories or hyper-partisanship (2020) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-10-30: Hank is very worried about the election, but says it will not end the pandemic, injustice and inequality, conspiracy theory, hyper-partisanship, or people's fear, anxiety and anger. — Four Years Ago 00:03:05
  • repeated 2020-11-06 (said on 2020-11-05, implied) (6 days later): Hank says the rift, crafted over decades and deeper than many of its crafters hoped, was never going to be filled in one election; his hope that it would was faulty. — Just Some Election Thoughts… 00:01:27
• 2020-11-06 (said on 2020-11-05, implied) · Hank: Joe Biden will be the next US president (2020) — Hank · horizon: 2021-01-22 (≈ 2021-01-22) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-11-06 (said on 2020-11-05, implied): The description, written after recording, says Joe Biden is almost certain to be the next president of the United States. (hedged: "almost certain") — Just Some Election Thoughts… video description
  • repeated 2021-01-08 (64 days later): Hank thinks Joe Biden is going to be president in two weeks. (hedged: "I think") — In Which Hank Worries for a Little Bit and then Looks at Microbes 00:00:26
  • later on the channel 2021-08-13: President Biden has said he will not sign his $1.2 billion infrastructure package unless there is also a climate plan on his desk; 'here's hoping'. — How We Fix the Climate 00:14:07
• 2020-11-06 (said on 2020-11-05, implied) · Hank: Trump will falsely claim the 2020 election was stolen and many of his supporters will lose faith in the American system (2020) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-11-06 (said on 2020-11-05, implied): Hank says the result is close enough that Trump can falsely claim the election was stolen from him, and many of his supporters will completely lose faith in the American system. — Just Some Election Thoughts… 00:00:58
• 2020-11-10 · John: safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines are coming (2020) — John · horizon: coming · conditional · came true
  • forecast 2020-11-10: John hopes a new vaccine is coming and says that, if it is, we should build not a statue of one person but monuments to the open cooperation of thousands that achieves shared immunity. — On Immunity, Inoculation, and Individuals 00:03:24
  • predicted 2020-11-24 (14 days later): Safe and effective COVID vaccines are coming. — personal risk · societal risk 00:03:24
  • → came true 2021-04-06 (147 days later): The COVID vaccines approved in the US and much of the world are safe and effective; over 100 million people have received them, and they dramatically reduce personal and societal risk. — How Do You Do, Fellow Kids? 00:01:27
• 2020-11-17 · John: the Maternal Center of Excellence should dramatically accelerate progress in care at Koidu (2020) — John · horizon: not stated · came true
  • forecast 2020-11-17: The change is happening, but John and PIH believe a high-quality teaching hospital must accelerate it. — Our Biggest Project Yet: A One Year Update 00:01:56
  • predicted 2021-04-20 (154 days later): John says the MCOE should dramatically accelerate this progress. (hedged: "should") — Breaking Ground!!! 00:01:16
  • repeated 2021-12-21 (1.1 years later): John hopes the progress at Koidu will be accelerated by the Maternal Center of Excellence opening in 2023. (hedged: "we hope") — NOW I AM THE SCIENCE ONE… 00:02:26
  • partly came true 2024-11-26 (4.0 years later): Vicky Reed told John that although the Maternal Center of Excellence is still under construction, its fruits already show: more community health workers, more specially trained obstetric nurses, and better-supported, safer clinics. — Good News 00:02:52
  • repeated 2025-10-01 (4.9 years later): John says maternal mortality at the hospital will decline further with the opening next month (November 2025) of the Maternal Center of Excellence there. — Real Reasons for Hope 00:03:53
  • → came true 2026-02-24 (5.3 years later): John says the Paul Farmer Maternal Center of Excellence finally opened at Koidu Government Hospital, radically transforming infant and maternal care in eastern Sierra Leone. — Risk Is a Privilege 00:00:00
• 2020-11-17 · John: Partners In Health will break ground on the Maternal Center of Excellence in spring 2021 (2020) — John · horizon: 2021 (≈ 2021-12-31) · came true
  • forecast 2020-11-17: Despite COVID, groundbreaking on the Maternal Center of Excellence is still planned for April 2021, the original date, a credit to PIH and Sierra Leone's government. — Our Biggest Project Yet: A One Year Update 00:01:56
  • predicted 2020-12-29 (42 days later): Thanks to the monthly donors, at current donation levels Partners In Health has the money to break ground on the Maternal Center of Excellence next spring, hopefully. (hedged: "hopefully barring unforeseen catastrophes") — Looking Back at My 2020 Goals 00:02:55
  • repeated 2021-04-20 (154 days later): Next week (week of 26 April 2021) Partners In Health and the Sierra Leonean government will officially break ground on the Maternal Center of Excellence and the expansion of Koidu Government Hospital, a huge step against maternal mortality. — Breaking Ground!!! 00:00:00
  • → came true 2022-01-04 (1.1 years later): With PIH's own fundraising and support from Life's Library and the Awesome Socks Club, ground has broken on the Maternal Center of Excellence. — After 15 Years on YouTube, THIS IS THE MOST AMAZING THING 00:00:58
• 2020-11-17 · John: at current monthly donation rates, the PIH Sierra Leone project will raise over $15 million in five years (2020) — John · horizon: 2024 (≈ 2024-12-31) · came true
  • forecast 2020-11-17: Thanks to thousands of monthly donors at pih.org/hankandjohn, matched by donors within Nerdfighteria, current rates will raise over $15 million over five years. — Our Biggest Project Yet: A One Year Update 00:04:43
  • repeated 2022-01-04 (1.1 years later): John announces the project is on track to raise over $25 million, meaning if monthly donations continue at about their current level. (hedged: "assuming donations continue at about the same monthly level") — After 15 Years on YouTube, THIS IS THE MOST AMAZING THING 00:01:27
  • repeated 2022-09-13 (1.8 years later): John says the community is on track to raise over $30 million over the first five years of this decade for a stronger health system in Kono District, Sierra Leone. — A Million Things at Once 00:02:04
  • repeated 2022-11-15 (2.0 years later): John says the community, working with Partners In Health, is now on pace to raise over $35 million in the first five years of the project to radically reduce maternal mortality in Sierra Leone. — 3 Years In: What Happened, Why, and What's Next 00:00:00
  • → came true 2023-05-02 (2.5 years later): Helped by the nearly $40 million Nerdfighteria and PIH raised over three and a half years, the MCOE will be the world-class center Kono's mothers and children deserve. — GOOD NEWS 00:01:27
  • recalled 2025-10-31 (5.0 years later): Hank recalls that shortly after John's first video from Sierra Leone six years ago, the brothers pledged to raise $25 million for a hospital without knowing how, and exceeded the goal. — We Did It… 00:05:47
• 2020-11-17 · John: at current rates, matched monthly donations to the PIH Sierra Leone project will raise over $15 million over five years (2020) — John · horizon: 2025 (≈ 2025-12-31) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-11-17: John says that at current donation rates the matched monthly donations will raise over $15 million over five years (by 2025). — Our Biggest Project Yet: A One Year Update 00:04:43
  • partly came true 2024-06-18 (3.6 years later): Thousands of people became monthly donors at pih.org/hankandjohn, giving $5 to $50 a month; they raised several million dollars over five years, all matched by a Nerdfighteria matching fund. — The Tea 00:00:58
• 2020-11-20 · Hank: COVID-19 vaccines will be distributed within 30 days (2020) — Hank · horizon: 2020-12-20 (≈ 2020-12-20) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-11-20: The description says that with vaccines to be distributed within 30 days, staying home and wearing masks is even more valuable: we are now buying time for a visible goal. — Would I Take a COVID Vaccine? video description
• 2020-11-20 · Hank: how long COVID-19 vaccine protection lasts won't be known for a pretty long time (2020) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-11-20: It is unknown how long the vaccines last, and that won't be known for a pretty long time. — Would I Take a COVID Vaccine? 00:01:01
• 2020-11-24 · John: next year there will be feasting and dancing again (2020) — John · horizon: 2021 (≈ 2021-12-31) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-11-24: John tells Hank he can't come to Thanksgiving, but next year (2021) there will be feasting and dancing in Jerusalem. — personal risk · societal risk 00:03:24
• 2020-12-11 · Hank: the brothers' next project won't be little (2020) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-12-11: Answering John's 'What's next?', Hank says whatever comes next, it ain't gonna be little. — The /W/orst Letter 00:03:41
• 2020-12-15 · John: Dan Quayle could end up buried at Crown Hill Cemetery (2020) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel · not counted (sincere)
  • forecast 2020-12-15: In a channel comment John says former vice president Dan Quayle, who lives in Arizona but has deep roots in Indianapolis, could end up buried at Crown Hill. (speculative) — America's Capital of Dead Vice Presidents
  • repeated 2022-10-07 (1.8 years later): John jokes that Dan Quayle, an Indiana boy now living in Arizona, could be a future Crown Hill Cemetery resident, and he thought of writing to suggest it. (playful) — Planets Don't Exist 00:09:12
• 2020-12-15 · John: Mike Pence will probably be buried in Columbus, Indiana, not at Crown Hill (2020) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel · not counted (sincere)
  • forecast 2020-12-15: In a channel comment John says Mike Pence will probably be buried in Columbus, where he is from, rather than at Crown Hill. (speculative) — America's Capital of Dead Vice Presidents
• 2020-12-29 · John: there should be new episodes of The Anthropocene Reviewed podcast in 2021 (2020) — John · horizon: 2021 (≈ 2021-12-31) · came true
  • forecast 2020-12-29: Barring unforeseen catastrophes, there should be some new episodes of The Anthropocene Reviewed next year (2021). (hedged: "barring unforeseen catastrophes") — Looking Back at My 2020 Goals 00:00:45
  • → came true 2021-04-27 (119 days later): A new podcast episode comes out on Thursday, about Penguins of Madagascar and the smallpox vaccine. — What is my new book about? creator comment
• 2020-12-29 · John: there will be a way forward after 2020 (2020) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2020-12-29: There will be a way forward: an unconditional future-tense statement John is still willing to make. — Looking Back at My 2020 Goals 00:03:30

2021 (96)

• 2021-01-01 · Hank: by 2020 there will be cures for almost every illness and people will be 200 years old (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated · proved wrong
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The essay predicts cures for almost every illness and 200-year-old people; Hank notes the math fails, since the oldest person in 1990 could only be 140 in 2020. (playful) — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:00:29
• 2021-01-01 · Hank: by 2020 alien races will have brought new technologies to Earth (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The essay also predicts aliens bringing new technology to Earth and ways to revive the dead, which turns out to mean no more extinct animals. (playful) — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:00:58
• 2021-01-01 · Hank: by 2020 the dead will be made alive again, so there will be no more extinct animals (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The essay also predicts aliens bringing new technology to Earth and ways to revive the dead, which turns out to mean no more extinct animals. (playful) — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:00:58
• 2021-01-01 · Hank: Iraq will release hostages in 1991 (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated · came true
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The timeline's first prediction, Iraq releasing hostages in 1991, actually happened in December 1990, so Hank says he was close. — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:01:20
• 2021-01-01 · Hank: a way of living in space will be invented in 1992 (1990) — Hank · horizon: not far off · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-01-01: For 1992 the timeline predicted a way of living in space; the ISS launched in 1998, so not far off. — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:01:20
• 2021-01-01 · Hank: there will be peace in the Middle East in 1993 (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated · proved wrong
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The timeline predicted peace in the Middle East for 1993. (playful) — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:01:20
• 2021-01-01 · Hank: there will be a first community on the Moon (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated · proved wrong
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The timeline's first community on the Moon has not happened yet. — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:01:51
• 2021-01-01 · Hank: electric cars will arrive in 1995 (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated · came true
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The timeline predicted electric cars for 1995; the GM EV1 came out in 1996, which Hank brags about. (playful) — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:01:51
• 2021-01-01 · Hank: people will go to Mars in 1996 (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated · conditional · proved wrong
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The timeline's 1996 trip to Mars did not happen, unless one counts the 1997 Pathfinder mission. — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:01:51
• 2021-01-01 · Hank: in 1998 there will be 100 television stations without a satellite (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-01-01: For 1998 the timeline predicted 100 television stations without a satellite, which Hank says was what he worried about. — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:01:51
• 2021-01-01 · Hank: the US will have its first black president in 1999 (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated · came true
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The timeline put the first black president in 1999, not an election year, but Hank notes that did come true. — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:01:51
• 2021-01-01 · Hank: cancer will be cured in 2000 (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated · proved wrong
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The timeline cured cancer in 2000; Hank apologises to little Hank that there turn out to be many cancers. (playful) — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:01:51
• 2021-01-01 · Hank: the US will have its first woman president in 2002 (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated · proved wrong
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The timeline gave a first woman president in 2002, three years after the first black president, and a true ghost discovered in 2004, which did not happen. (playful) — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:02:21
• 2021-01-01 · Hank: a true ghost will be discovered in 2004 (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated · proved wrong
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The timeline gave a first woman president in 2002, three years after the first black president, and a true ghost discovered in 2004, which did not happen. (playful) — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:02:21
• 2021-01-01 · Hank: in 2008 an oil line will break and many animals will suffer (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The timeline's 2008 oil line break hurting many animals came close: the Deepwater Horizon spill was in 2010. — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:02:21
• 2021-01-01 · Hank: the rainforest will be lost forever in 2009 (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated · proved wrong
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The timeline predicted the rainforest lost forever in 2009; Hank notes he expected a cool 2020 without rainforests, so their survival is a win. (playful) — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:02:21
• 2021-01-01 · Hank: Burt Reynolds will die of a heart condition in 2011 (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The timeline had Burt Reynolds dying of a heart condition in 2011; he died of cardiac arrest in 2018, so Hank says it was not that wrong. — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:02:50
• 2021-01-01 · Hank: superior fish beings will emerge in 2012 (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-01-01: For 2012 the timeline predicts superior fish beings; Hank does not know what they do, but they exist. (playful) — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:02:50
  • recalled 2021-01-05 (4 days later): John says Hank's video last week (week of 28 December 2020) almost skipped his childhood prediction that 2012 would bring the emergence of superior fish beings. (playful) — SUPERIOR FISH BEINGS 00:00:00
• 2021-01-01 · Hank: thousands of aliens will come in peace in 2016 (1990) — Hank · horizon: coming · proved wrong
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The timeline's 2016 entry, thousands of aliens coming in peace, has not happened, but Hank says we are still holding out hope. (playful) — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:03:13
• 2021-01-01 · Hank: Garfield will turn 80 in 2020 (1990) — Hank · horizon: not stated · proved wrong
  • forecast 2021-01-01: The 2020 prediction, Garfield turning 80, was wrong: Garfield turned 42 this year (2021), which Hank could have looked up. — In 1990 I Made a Bunch of Predictions About 2020...Here they Are 00:03:13
• 2021-01-08 · Hank: there will not be a coup in the US (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-01-08: Hank does not think there will be a coup. (hedged: "I don't think") — In Which Hank Worries for a Little Bit and then Looks at Microbes 00:00:26
• 2021-01-08 · Hank: the US is not headed into a civil war (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-01-08: Hank does not think the US is headed into a civil war: things are very bad, just nowhere close to that bad. (hedged: "I don't think") — In Which Hank Worries for a Little Bit and then Looks at Microbes 00:00:26
• 2021-01-15 · Hank: more and more people will push toward the feeling of mattering (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-01-15: In a society that has done a terrible job of appreciating many if not most humans, Hank says, more people will push toward that feeling of mattering. — Influencers and Insurrectionists 00:01:40
• 2021-01-19 · John: P4A perk shipping will be better in 2021 than after the last P4A (2021) — John · horizon: 2021 (≈ 2021-12-31) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-01-19: John apologizes that some perks from the last P4A still havent gone out: the all-volunteer operation ships slowly and COVID hurt manufacturing and shipping; he thinks they have it figured out and it will be better this year (2021). — let's go on a parts adventure 00:00:58
• 2021-01-29 · Hank: GameStop's share price will eventually fall back to a rational level (2021) — Hank · horizon: eventually · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-01-29: Hank says GameStop's price will eventually go back down to a rational number once the squeezes run out. — The Gamestop Short Squeeze in 4 Minutes 00:01:56
• 2021-01-29 · Hank: people will lose a lot of money as GameStop's price falls (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-01-29: Hank says that on the way down people are going to lose a lot of money. — The Gamestop Short Squeeze in 4 Minutes 00:02:26
• 2021-01-29 · Hank: people will eventually figure out how powerful they are (2021) — Hank · horizon: eventually · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-01-29: Hank says people will eventually figure out how powerful they are, and it will be interesting to see what we do with that. — The Gamestop Short Squeeze in 4 Minutes 00:03:42
• 2021-02-02 · John: a global disease pandemic is coming and everyone must prepare for it (2019) — John · horizon: coming · came true
  • forecast 2021-02-02: John recalls predicting the pandemic: in mid-2019 on Dear Hank and John he said everyone must prepare for the coming global disease pandemic, and a year earlier he listed one among his chief fears. — I Predicted the Pandemic (over and over and over again) 00:00:00
• 2021-02-02 · John: unless unequal access to health care is addressed, pandemics will stay routine and disproportionately harm the most vulnerable (2021) — John · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-02-02: Disease does not treat people equally because social orders don't; unless unequal access to health care is addressed, pandemics will stay routine and keep harming the most vulnerable most. — I Predicted the Pandemic (over and over and over again) 00:02:26
• 2021-02-19 · Hank: P4A 2021 money will go to many charities and have a lot of real-world impact (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · came true
  • forecast 2021-02-19: Hank predicts the P4A will distribute a lot of money to many charities and have a lot of real-world impact. — Bean Meme Review 00:12:30
  • → came true 2022-02-08 (354 days later): John says last year (2021) the Project for Awesome donated over $27,000 to each charity chosen by the community. — How Much Money Vlogbrothers Makes from YouTube (...and where it goes) 00:03:26
• 2021-02-26 · Hank: Orin will eventually sing J and K in the right order (2021) — Hank · horizon: eventually · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-02-26: Hank is not worried: Orin will get J and K right eventually. — Arbitrary but Useful 00:01:20
• 2021-03-02 · John: people may develop the ability to recognise unreliable online images as unreliable (2021) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-03-02: In a channel comment John says our brains are not sophisticated enough to understand that unreliable images are unreliable; we may develop this ability over time, but it is a huge problem. (hedged: "may") — What's Not in the Frame 00:00:00
• 2021-03-05 · Hank: we may not learn anything from the pandemic year (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-03-05: Hank allows that we may not learn anything from any of this. (hedged: "It's possible") — How Much Hope is OK? 00:00:35
• 2021-03-05 · Hank: mRNA therapies will prove useful beyond the COVID-19 vaccine, improving human health (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-03-05: Hank says mRNA therapies are proving potentially useful beyond this vaccine, for many things that will improve human health and life. (hedged: "potentially") — How Much Hope is OK? 00:00:35
• 2021-03-05 · Hank: spring is coming, in more than the weather: the hard pandemic winter is ending (2021) — Hank · horizon: coming · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-03-05: Hank sees spring coming and knows it is coming, and says he is not just talking about the weather. — How Much Hope is OK? 00:01:42
• 2021-03-05 · Hank: there may yet be twists and turns in the pandemic (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-03-05: Part of Hank and much of the world discourage the feeling; some of that is wise: the future is unknown, guards should stay up, and twists may remain. — How Much Hope is OK? 00:01:42
• 2021-03-19 · Hank: he will travel for business again after the pandemic (2021) — Hank · horizon: never · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-03-19: Hank would like never to travel for business again, which has been nice this year (2021), but he will. — How Will Post Pandemic Behavior Change? 00:01:00
• 2021-03-19 · Hank: hugging people beyond his household will return after the pandemic (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-03-19: Among things Hank wants back that will definitely happen is hugging people other than his wife and son. — How Will Post Pandemic Behavior Change? 00:01:00
• 2021-03-19 · Hank: his Zoom calls with old friends may not continue after the pandemic (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-03-19: Zoom calls with old friends, begun because of the pandemic, are something Hank would like to keep but is not sure they will keep up. (hedged: "I'm not sure") — How Will Post Pandemic Behavior Change? 00:01:28
• 2021-03-19 · Hank: he may not regain his pre-pandemic feeling of safety around strangers (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-03-19: Hank wants to feel safe around strangers as he used to but may not be able to; right now he would be uncomfortable in a big crowded room. (hedged: "may not be able to") — How Will Post Pandemic Behavior Change? 00:01:28
• 2021-03-19 · Hank: he will keep using telemedicine after the pandemic (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-03-19: Hank wants to keep doing more telemedicine and thinks he will, though he is not sure his doctor will offer it; it has been great. (hedged: "I'm not sure if I'll be able to") — How Will Post Pandemic Behavior Change? 00:01:57
• 2021-03-19 · Hank: he will go to see movies again after the pandemic (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-03-19: Hank kind of wants to see a movie, but not that badly; he will go to movies again, though a four-year-old complicates it. — How Will Post Pandemic Behavior Change? 00:01:57
• 2021-03-19 · Hank: he will keep ordering restaurant delivery after the pandemic (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-03-19: Many of Hank's favorite restaurants started delivering, and he likes a night in without dishes or going anywhere with a four-year-old. — How Will Post Pandemic Behavior Change? 00:02:44
• 2021-03-26 · Hank: 25% of people in the US will be fully vaccinated within a month (2021) — Hank · horizon: within a month (≈ 2021-04-25) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-03-26: Hank says that sometime in the next month 25% of people in the US will be fully vaccinated, many of them the most at-risk. — Why I'm Worried about 2021 00:00:29
• 2021-03-26 · Hank: US mask mandates will be lifted within a few months (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-03-26: Within the next few months, Hank says, mask mandates will be lifted even where governors aren't doing political signaling to their base. — Why I'm Worried about 2021 00:00:29
• 2021-03-26 · Hank: COVID may never go away but will be much less of a problem where many are vaccinated (2021) — Hank · horizon: never · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-03-26: COVID isn't going away, maybe ever, but Hank says it will be much less of a problem where lots of people get vaccinated. (hedged: "maybe") — Why I'm Worried about 2021 00:01:27
• 2021-03-26 · Hank: COVID will become less of a big deal (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-03-26: Hank hopes we will transition to COVID being less of a big deal, deciding for ourselves what is OK, and asks how far we will decide for others too. (hedged: "I think, I hope") — Why I'm Worried about 2021 00:01:27
• 2021-03-26 · Hank: behavior change will matter less as vaccines matter more (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-03-26: People will understand risk, citizenship and societal impact differently, and behavior change will matter less as vaccines matter more, as long as nothing goes terribly wrong. (hedged: "As long as nothing goes terribly wrong") — Why I'm Worried about 2021 00:02:26
• 2021-03-30 · John: he will never again sign his name 250,000 times (2021) — John · horizon: never · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-03-30: John doesn't think he will ever sign his name 250,000 times again. (hedged: "I don't think") — I did it! 00:02:25
  • recalled 2024-10-22 (3.6 years later): John admits he said after last time he would never again sign hundreds of thousands of books, but says he is signing only 100,000. (playful) — My New Book: Everything Is Tuberculosis 00:03:00
  • repeated 2024-12-31 (3.8 years later): John says that after this he just will not be able to do bulk signing with his Lectrojogger again. — I Just Can't Do It Anymore 00:01:44
  • recalled 2026-03-31 (5.0 years later): John admits he said he would never do this signing again because he has arthritis, and his shoulder, and so on. — I've Been Keeping a Secret… 00:03:24
  • later on the channel 2025-01-07: John has signed 110,000 tip-in sheets for Everything Is Tuberculosis, jogged and boxed them, and sent them off to the printer in Virginia. — The Format but it hurts to stand up 00:00:01
• 2021-03-30 · John: The Anthropocene Reviewed will not be his last book (2021) — John · horizon: not stated · came true
  • forecast 2021-03-30: Wanting more work for the LectroJog, John hopes The Anthropocene Reviewed will not be his last book. (hedged: "hopefully") — I did it! 00:02:25
  • repeated 2021-08-24 (147 days later): Working on The Anthropocene Reviewed has been incredible, but John thinks he is ready to go back to writing fiction, maybe, after a long pause. (hedged: "Maybe?") — It's My Birthday. I Gave Myself This Video. 00:00:58
  • repeated 2021-11-23 (said on 2021-10-28, implied) (212 days later): Though a book takes him years, John is looking forward to it, enjoying the fun and immersion of writing, and wants to focus on it. — I have been playing a small trick on you. 00:02:55
  • repeated 2023-10-17 (2.6 years later): John says he is writing, loves writing, and will have a next book, hopefully someday soon. — My Next Book 00:03:46
  • → came true 2026-03-31 (5.0 years later): John last published books in consecutive years in 2005 and 2006; now, 20 years later, Everything Is Tuberculosis came out last year (2025) and Hollywood, Ending comes out this year (2026). — I've Been Keeping a Secret… 00:00:29
  • later on the channel 2024-12-31: John has signed 700,000 tip-in sheets over his career, is attached to the process and his Lectrojogger, and says it is a bummer that he will not be able to after this. — I Just Can't Do It Anymore 00:01:44
  • later on the channel 2025-01-07: John has signed 110,000 tip-in sheets for Everything Is Tuberculosis, jogged and boxed them, and sent them off to the printer in Virginia. — The Format but it hurts to stand up 00:00:01
• 2021-04-06 · John: if everyone were fully vaccinated, COVID-19 would be at most a minor problem for humans (2021) — John · horizon: tomorrow (≈ 2021-04-07) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-04-06: If everyone were fully vaccinated tomorrow, COVID-19 would be at most a minor problem for humans. — How Do You Do, Fellow Kids? 00:01:56
• 2021-04-06 · John: shared immunity against COVID-19 can be achieved soon (2021) — John · horizon: soon · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-04-06: On his vision board John is thankful for safe and effective vaccines and hopeful for shared immunity soon. (hedged: "hopeful") — How Do You Do, Fellow Kids? 00:03:49
• 2021-04-16 · Hank: everyone talking about the eventual impacts of gene editing on intelligence, himself included, will be wrong (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-04-16: We know so little that everyone talking about the eventual impacts of gene editing, especially on intelligence, Hank included, is bound to be wrong. — Gene Editing and Intelligence: A Bad video description
• 2021-04-16 · Hank: the world of the future will differ from ours, so which traits will be useful then cannot be known now (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-04-16: We don't know now which traits will be useful to the people of the future, because their world will be different from ours. — Gene Editing and Intelligence: A Bad 00:02:26
• 2021-05-14 · Hank: this video will almost certainly not have 759 words (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-05-14: This video will almost certainly not have 759 words, Hank says, but one data point can't show reality; together the data points tell a really specific story. — This Vlogbrothers Stat Blew My Mind 00:02:35
• 2021-05-14 · Hank: more people will soon post on theanthropocenereviewed.com (2021) — Hank · horizon: soon · came true
  • forecast 2021-05-14: Hank expects more people to appear on the site soon. (hedged: "I imagine") — This Vlogbrothers Stat Blew My Mind 00:03:18
  • → came true 2021-05-18 (4 days later): John says it has been a joy to watch the books start to travel and, this morning, to read readers' reviews of their locations on the site. — Saying What I've Needed to Say to Hank for a While 00:00:37
• 2021-05-21 · Hank: if the Earth-Moon system survives the Sun becoming a red giant, the Moon will crash into Earth some 60 billion years later (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-05-21: If the Earth-Moon system survives the Sun's expansion into a red giant, which it might not, then some 60 billion years later the Moon will crash into Earth; space is dangerous on long timescales. (hedged: "which, like, it might not") — The 19 Best Facts 00:02:10
• 2021-06-04 · Hank: finding better ways to use social platforms will take a long time (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-06-04: The description says Hank thinks there are better ways to use these platforms, but finding them will take a long time. — Is Twitter Redeemable? video description
  • repeated 2021-07-16 (42 days later): Hank says the hard work of finding what actions make large online systems better will take a long time. — Should You Abandon Social Media? 00:02:44
  • repeated 2022-12-09 (1.5 years later): Hank's big concern: we have not yet got through the last revolutionary shift in human communication and are still figuring out how to live with disruptive tools given to us 10 or 20 years ago. — Things are Changing Very Fast 00:01:56
• 2021-06-04 · Hank: Twitter's norms may change in ways that make people better at using it (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-06-04: Twitter's norms have changed and will keep changing; maybe they will change in ways that make us better at this. (hedged: "maybe") — Is Twitter Redeemable? 00:01:30
• 2021-06-04 · Hank: manufactured online discourse may work less as people grow more aware of it (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-06-04: Maybe such manufactured discourse will work less as we become more aware of it, which happens as we spend more time on the platforms. (hedged: "maybe") — Is Twitter Redeemable? 00:03:18
  • repeated 2021-10-07 (125 days later): Hank thinks we won't educate people out of responding to fear and indulging righteous superiority, though there are some signs that maybe immunities kick in; but Facebook cannot be called bad only because humans make bad decisions. — We're Thinking About Facebook Wrong 00:19:28
• 2021-06-04 · Hank: the internet can eventually become a net good, as earlier communication media did (2021) — Hank · horizon: eventually · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-06-04: A majority of Hank believes that is possible for the internet, but no piece of him understands how we'll get there, which is uncomfortable. — Is Twitter Redeemable? 00:03:45
  • repeated 2021-07-16 (42 days later): Hank loves the internet and still believes in its promise, though it is more delayed than he assumed, and thinks we should keep thinking about and fighting for it. — Should You Abandon Social Media? 00:03:13
  • repeated 2021-10-07 (125 days later): Hank doesn't know how we will move forward from here, but knows we will. — We're Thinking About Facebook Wrong 00:21:15
  • repeated 2022-10-06 (1.3 years later): Hank compares the printing press and newspapers, for which we created norms and laws; by learning from the past we can hopefully do it faster, as change is faster now. (hedged: "hopefully") — The Pizzamas Magic Is Almost Over… 00:02:48
  • repeated 2024-01-05 (2.6 years later): In the description Hank says he has long said the internet-and-society situation will get worse before it gets better, and still thinks so. — I'm Scared of 2024...So Here's 3 Optimistic Thoughts video description
  • repeated 2024-11-22 (3.5 years later): Hank says that as we learn to resist the new media's spells, as we always eventually do, those with better information tend to win out eventually; the question is how long. — Populism, Media Revolutions, and Our Terrible Moment 00:32:19
• 2021-06-18 · John: who is the real Quadragoconian will not be known for another four to six years (2021) — John · horizon: 2027 (≈ 2027-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-06-18: After the draw, John says they won't know for sure who the real Quadragoconian is for another four to six years. — QUADRAGOCON 2021!! LET THE GAMES CONTINUE!!!! 00:02:49
• 2021-06-25 · Hank: the $500 Crash Course coins will probably be sold out by the time this video goes up (2021) — Hank · horizon: 2021-06-25 (≈ 2021-06-25) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-06-25: Hank says the $500 coins are probably sold out by the time the video goes up, but maybe not. (hedged: "probably") — The Surprising Origin of Crash Course 00:03:09
• 2021-07-02 · Hank: we may never move beyond treating orange juice's flavoring, rather than its sugar, as the problem (2021) — Hank · horizon: never · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-07-02: Asking whether we will ever move beyond this, the description answers: maybe not. (hedged: "Maybe not") — So...Orange Juice isn't What it Seems… video description
• 2021-07-30 · Hank: ivermectin might prove an effective COVID treatment within a year (2021) — Hank · horizon: 2022-07 (≈ 2022-07-31) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-07-30: Hank says that by this time next year (2022) ivermectin might be shown to be an effective COVID treatment. (hedged: "might") — Can You Trust Science Too Much? 00:01:35
• 2021-07-30 · Hank: the large ivermectin trial in England will provide much more good data (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-07-30: Hank says the large ivermectin study under way in England will provide a lot more good data. — Can You Trust Science Too Much? 00:02:04
• 2021-08-13 · Hank: climate change will hit hardest those least responsible, while affluent people will be mostly okay (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-08-13: Global warming, like almost every issue, is a justice issue: it will hit hardest those least responsible, while relatively affluent people in affluent places will be mostly okay. — How We Fix the Climate 00:02:05
• 2021-08-13 · Hank: equal carbon-dividend checks will probably cause tension, as rural people use more energy (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-08-13: Hank thinks the lack of fairness will probably cause some tension, adding 'just guessing'. (hedged: "probably") — How We Fix the Climate 00:07:40
• 2021-08-13 · Hank: US Republicans won't vote for carbon pricing, so without every Democrat there will be no carbon tax (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-08-13: In the US the right will not vote for any of this, so without every Democrat's vote there will be no carbon tax. — How We Fix the Climate 00:12:10
  • repeated 2022-08-12 (364 days later): Asked why not just make fossil fuels more expensive, Hank answers with the Mean Girls line that it is not going to happen. — The Biggest Climate Bill of Your Life - But What does it DO!? 00:13:03
• 2021-09-03 · Hank: the Microcosmos microscope's missing piece will ship to Kickstarter backers, hopefully soon (2021) — Hank · horizon: soon · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-09-03: Hank says the microscope's missing final piece will go out to backers when it arrives, hopefully soon. (hedged: "hopefully") — What the Heck am I doing? 00:00:00
• 2021-09-03 · Hank: the two projects he and John wanted out by Christmas 2021 will happen eventually and be great (2021) — Hank · horizon: eventually · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-09-03: Hank says the two things he and John wanted out by Christmas will happen eventually and be greater because they waited. — What the Heck am I doing? 00:02:39
• 2021-09-03 · Hank: his space mystery novel may never happen (2021) — Hank · horizon: never · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-09-03: Hank says he may be trying to write a space mystery novel, but that doesn't mean it will happen. (hedged: "Maybe") — What the Heck am I doing? 00:02:39
• 2021-09-03 · Hank: all the projects on his plate will get done, though not perfectly (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-09-03: Hank says all the things he is working on will get done, not perfectly, but done. — What the Heck am I doing? 00:03:18
• 2021-09-17 · Hank: he may talk about the video portion of the 2021 Nikon Small World competition sometime (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-09-17: The description notes the competition also had a video portion, which Hank may talk about sometime. (hedged: "maybe") — The Top 10 Micro-Photos of 2021 video description
• 2021-10-07 · Hank: content platforms will be seen as as significant a shift as the printing press (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-10-07: Hank used to think his belief that the social internet was as big a deal as the printing press was irrational; now he thinks it entirely rational, even common. — We're Thinking About Facebook Wrong 00:04:44
  • predicted 2024-01-05 (2.2 years later): Hank believes the future will see the advent of content platforms as significant a shift as the printing press, though he might be wrong. (hedged: "I might be wrong about that") — I'm Scared of 2024...So Here's 3 Optimistic Thoughts 00:03:58
  • repeated 2024-11-22 (3.1 years later): Hank argues his eight-year-old son, probably alive in 2100, will have a historically weird life in a world fractured by circumstances unseen for more than 500 years. — Populism, Media Revolutions, and Our Terrible Moment 00:00:29
• 2021-10-07 · Hank: Facebook will keep existing (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-10-07: Hank says Facebook is going to keep existing; Zuckerberg pulling the plug would be a 'hundo P baller move' but seems unlikely. — We're Thinking About Facebook Wrong 00:06:23
• 2021-10-07 · Hank: Mark Zuckerberg will probably keep believing Facebook does more good than harm (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-10-07: Hank says Zuckerberg has many incentives to believe Facebook does more good than harm, so he will probably believe it whether or not it is true, which Hank does not know. (hedged: "probably") — We're Thinking About Facebook Wrong 00:06:37
• 2021-10-07 · Hank: Facebook's call to be regulated will be heard a lot (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-10-07: Hank says people are going to be hearing Facebook's call to be regulated a lot. — We're Thinking About Facebook Wrong 00:11:45
• 2021-10-07 · Hank: Facebook will ask to be regulated but fight each individual regulation (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-10-07: Hank says Facebook will ask to be regulated but fight every individual regulation tooth and nail. — We're Thinking About Facebook Wrong 00:14:58
• 2021-10-07 · Hank: people will not be educated out of responding to fear and righteous superiority (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-10-07: Hank thinks we won't educate people out of responding to fear and indulging righteous superiority, though there are some signs that maybe immunities kick in; but Facebook cannot be called bad only because humans make bad decisions. — We're Thinking About Facebook Wrong 00:19:28
• 2021-10-07 · Hank: in 20 or 30 years today's social internet will look quaint, clunky and hilariously bad (2021) — Hank · horizon: 2051 (≈ 2051-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-10-07: Hank says in 20 or 30 years we will look back at the way things are now and find it quaint, clunky and hilariously bad. — We're Thinking About Facebook Wrong 00:21:05
• 2021-10-08 · John (unfilmed February 2020 script): very likely we will think in two months that we overreacted to coronavirus (2020) — John · horizon: 2020-04 (≈ 2020-04-30) · proved wrong
  • forecast 2021-10-08: The 2020 script predicted that in two months we would very likely think we had overreacted to the threat of coronavirus. (hedged: "very likely") — On February 3rd, 2020, I Wrote a Video I Didn't Make. Here It Is. 00:01:45
  • → proved wrong 2021-10-08 (same video): Current John says this part does not hold up: he is not sure it was ever very likely. (hedged: "I'm not sure") — On February 3rd, 2020, I Wrote a Video I Didn't Make. Here It Is. 00:01:50
• 2021-10-08 · John (unfilmed February 2020 script): coronavirus may prove catastrophic within two months (2020) — John · horizon: 2020-04 (≈ 2020-04-30) · proved wrong
  • forecast 2021-10-08: The script's worst case: in two months we might remember coronavirus as having been catastrophic. (hedged: "It's also possible") — On February 3rd, 2020, I Wrote a Video I Didn't Make. Here It Is. 00:02:35
  • → proved wrong 2021-10-08 (same video): Current John asks how his past self, who studies and is obsessed with infectious diseases, imagined a worst case only 60 days long. (playful) — On February 3rd, 2020, I Wrote a Video I Didn't Make. Here It Is. 00:02:46
• 2021-10-11 · Hank: humans will not exceed Apollo 10's speed record until probably a trip to Mars (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-10-11: Hank says humans are not on the way to beating that record and probably won't until we head to Mars. (hedged: "probably") — The Fastest Things in the Universe (Entirely According to Me) 00:01:52
• 2021-10-12 · John: cell phones are a fad, like beepers (c. 2005) — John · horizon: not stated · proved wrong
  • forecast 2021-10-12: When he fell in love with Sarah, John had no cell phone, thinking phones a fad like beepers; he jokes he has always been a genius at predicting the future. (playful) — Fine, I'll take the bait. 00:02:55
• 2021-10-22 · Hank: the term 'artificial selection' may eventually be moved past (2021) — Hank · horizon: eventually · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-10-22: Hank thinks 'artificial selection' might be a term we eventually move past. (hedged: "I think that might be") — A Tool with No Blood on It 00:00:29
• 2021-11-05 · Hank: the Awesome Socks Club will donate over $900,000 to charity this year (2021) — Hank · horizon: 2021 (≈ 2021-12-31) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-11-05: Hank says they project that the Awesome Socks Club will donate over $900,000 to charity this year (2021). — We Have Invented Something Marvelous 00:01:27
• 2021-11-12 · Hank: the 2021 Awesome Socks Club will sell out before sign-up closes on Sunday at midnight (2021) — Hank · horizon: 2021-11-14 (≈ 2021-11-14) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-11-12: Asked (in his own voice) why he didn't mention the Awesome Socks Club, Hank says it is going very well and he thinks it will sell out within two days, before sales stop Sunday at midnight. (hedged: "I think") — Everything a Normal Person Needs to Know About Helium 00:03:24
• 2021-11-19 · Hank: humans will continue to get stuff done despite never all agreeing (2021) — Hank · horizon: never · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-11-19: No two people have ever agreed on everything, yet we have gotten a lot done, which gives Hank hope that we will continue to get stuff done. — How do We Get Anything Done At All? 00:03:02
• 2021-12-03 · Hank: John may eventually become a Crown Hill Cemetery tour guide as a job (2021) — Hank · horizon: eventually · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-12-03: Hank says maybe being a Crown Hill tour guide will eventually be John's job. (playful) (hedged: "Maybe") — John and Hank at the Cemetery 00:03:26
• 2021-12-17 · Hank: we may someday better understand matter in the midst of combustion reactions (2021) — Hank · horizon: someday · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-12-17: Hank says the matter in a flame mid-reaction is not really any state of matter, and maybe we will understand it better someday; it is a place where the usual hard lines between things break down. (hedged: "maybe") — What State of Matter is Fire 00:03:20
• 2021-12-21 · John: the Maternal Center of Excellence is on track to open on schedule (2021) — John · horizon: 2023 (≈ 2023-12-31) · proved wrong
  • forecast 2021-12-21: John hopes the progress at Koidu will be accelerated by the Maternal Center of Excellence opening in 2023. (hedged: "we hope") — NOW I AM THE SCIENCE ONE… 00:02:26
  • predicted 2022-01-04 (14 days later): John says the Maternal Center of Excellence is on track to open in 2023. — After 15 Years on YouTube, THIS IS THE MOST AMAZING THING 00:00:58
  • repeated 2023-08-22 (1.7 years later): John says the building at the top left of the picture is a maternity ward that will open this year (2023). — The Panera Phenomenon 00:00:20
  • → proved wrong 2026-02-24 (4.2 years later): John says the Paul Farmer Maternal Center of Excellence finally opened at Koidu Government Hospital, radically transforming infant and maternal care in eastern Sierra Leone. — Risk Is a Privilege 00:00:00
• 2021-12-21 · John: the Maternal Center of Excellence will open in 2023 (2021) — John · horizon: 2023 (≈ 2023-12-31) · proved wrong
  • forecast 2021-12-21: John hopes the progress at Koidu will be accelerated by the Maternal Center of Excellence opening in 2023. (hedged: "we hope") — NOW I AM THE SCIENCE ONE… 00:02:26
  • repeated 2022-01-04 (14 days later): John says the Maternal Center of Excellence is on track to open in 2023. — After 15 Years on YouTube, THIS IS THE MOST AMAZING THING 00:00:58
  • repeated 2023-08-22 (1.7 years later): John says the maternity ward building of the Maternal Center of Excellence will open this year (2023). — The Panera Phenomenon 00:00:20
  • → proved wrong 2024-01-16 (2.1 years later): John says the maternal and infant care center at Koidu Government Hospital is nearly finished: they are painting it right now. — The Bank of Nerdfighteria 00:00:32
• 2021-12-24 · Hank: the James Webb Space Telescope's sunshield deployment will go right (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-12-24: Hank says everything in the sunshield deployment has to go right; it has been tested and it all should. (hedged: "should") — 29 Days of Astronomical Terror 00:02:26
  • later on the channel 2022-07-15: Hank says the first James Webb Space Telescope images have just arrived, and many people seem to feel small, humbled or insignificant. — Thoughts From the Universe - Woah 00:00:00
  • later on the channel 2022-07-22: The description says Hank was reminded today that his 2011 James Webb Space Telescope video became a big deal internally for people working on the telescope, some of whom had started to doubt it would ever happen. — What are These Boys Doing?? video description
• 2021-12-24 · Hank: the James Webb Space Telescope will reach stable orbit at L2 29 days after launch and send its first images five to six months after launch (2021) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2021-12-24: Mirrors are fully deployed 13 days after launch and Webb reaches a stable orbit at L2 at 29 days; after four to five months of calibration, first images arrive five to six months after launch. — 29 Days of Astronomical Terror 00:02:55
  • later on the channel 2022-07-15: Hank says the first James Webb Space Telescope images have just arrived, and many people seem to feel small, humbled or insignificant. — Thoughts From the Universe - Woah 00:00:00
  • later on the channel 2022-07-22: The description says Hank was reminded today that his 2011 James Webb Space Telescope video became a big deal internally for people working on the telescope, some of whom had started to doubt it would ever happen. — What are These Boys Doing?? video description
• 2021-12-24 · Hank: the James Webb Space Telescope will let us see deeper than ever before (2021) — Hank · horizon: ever · came true
  • forecast 2021-12-24: Hank says that, quite literally, we are about to see deeper than we ever have before. — 29 Days of Astronomical Terror 00:03:24
  • → came true 2022-07-15 (203 days later): Hank says the first James Webb Space Telescope images have just arrived, and many people seem to feel small, humbled or insignificant. (hedged: "it seems") — Thoughts From the Universe - Woah 00:00:00
  • later on the channel 2022-07-22: The description says Hank was reminded today that his 2011 James Webb Space Telescope video became a big deal internally for people working on the telescope, some of whom had started to doubt it would ever happen. — What are These Boys Doing?? video description
  • later on the channel 2022-08-26: The giant 'quasar-looking' object in a James Webb image is just a star in our galaxy, far closer than the background galaxies; very bright objects show diffraction spikes caused by the shape of the mirrors. — I Searched for 'Science Side of Twitter' and Answered As Many Questions as I Could 00:00:58

2022 (18)

• 2022-01-21 · Hank: in the future humans will do many things that are currently impossible (2022) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2022-01-21: Humans constantly do things that were once impossible, like this conversation, and in the future we will do many things that are currently impossible. — How to Be Hopeful About Doomsday 00:02:24
• 2022-02-18 · Hank: the problem of heating homes with heat pumps in extreme cold may be solved within 20 years (2022) — Hank · horizon: 2042 (≈ 2042-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2022-02-18: The description says it is completely possible the extreme-cold problem will be solved within the next 20 years. (hedged: "it's completely possible") — You Don't Want a Gas Stovetop video description
• 2022-03-11 · Hank: humans will still exist in 200 years, probably with much more advanced technology (2022) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2022-03-11: Admitting he is the more optimistic brother, Hank says both he and John agree humans will exist in 200 years, probably with much more advanced technology: the most likely outcome. (hedged: "probably") — Is it All Hopeless? 00:01:19
• 2022-03-15 · John: no war will crush Ukrainian identity or language (2022) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2022-03-15: John says he knows no war will crush Ukrainian identity or language. — Ukraine and Russia: What Caused the War? 00:07:18
• 2022-03-15 · John: the day will come when Ukraine is its own country, its borders and sovereignty protected (2022) — John · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2022-03-15: John believes the day of a secure, sovereign Ukraine will come, but fears for every day until it does. — Ukraine and Russia: What Caused the War? 00:08:36
• 2022-03-18 · Hank: the US may actually stop changing its clocks after the Senate's unanimous vote (2022) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2022-03-18: Hank says the Senate vote is not the full process of a bill becoming law, but its unanimity suggests the change might very well actually happen. (hedged: "might very well") — How to Fix Daylight Saving Time 00:00:25
• 2022-05-13 · Hank: Elon Musk will likely back out of his deal to buy Twitter (2022) — Hank · horizon: not stated · proved wrong
  • forecast 2022-05-13: The description predicts Musk will likely back out of the deal once shown how hard it is to balance open speech with a platform people don't flee; otherwise he becomes the bogeyman. (hedged: "It seems likely") — What Elon Musk Got Wrong About Twitter video description
  • → proved wrong 2022-11-11 (182 days later): Hank admits he was totally wrong to expect Musk's audience to turn on him quickly once Twitter, still a business needing users and advertisers, forced him into subjective moderation decisions. — Elon Was Right 00:01:27
  • later on the channel 2025-04-11 (said on 2025-04-10, implied): Hank says support for tariffs is not universal in the administration: Elon Musk recently called Navarro a moron. — How Actually Crazy is This Mess? 00:07:48
• 2022-05-27 · Hank: America is not going to ban guns (2022) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2022-05-27: The description says America is not going to ban guns: some may want it, but it is impossible. — The Time for Politics video description
• 2022-07-22 · Hank: someday there will be Awesome Coffee Club subscribers who have no idea who Hank and John Green are (2022) — Hank · horizon: someday · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2022-07-22: Hank thinks someday there may be Awesome Coffee Club subscribers who have no idea who Hank and John Green are. (hedged: "I think it's possible") — What are These Boys Doing?? 00:03:10
• 2022-07-29 · Hank: the US may soon pass a climate bill that measurably reduces emissions on a fairly tight time scale (2022) — Hank · horizon: soon · came true
  • forecast 2022-07-29: The description says Hank made the video because it feels like the US may finally pass a climate bill that measurably reduces emissions on a fairly tight time scale, which would be massive. (hedged: "maybe MAYBE") — How Climate Change /Actually/ Works...in 4 Minutes video description
  • → came true 2022-08-12 (14 days later): Hank reports the climate bill has passed and projects it to cut US emissions by about a billion tons a year by 2030. — The Biggest Climate Bill of Your Life - But What does it DO!? 00:13:31
  • recalled 2022-08-19 (21 days later): Studying last week's (week of 8 August 2022) big climate bill showed Hank how complicated, important and good it is despite parts he would rather not be there, and how many coalitions had to come together to get behind it. — What if a lot of the Cynicism is Unjustified??? 00:01:08
  • later on the channel 2025-11-14: Hank says one legislative mechanism is left: giant filibuster-proof spending packages such as the Inflation Reduction Act and the One Big Beautiful Bill, shipping containers of an administration's policy. — The End of The Penny (and of Congress??) 00:04:50
• 2022-08-12 · Hank: US emissions will probably fall to 3.5 billion tons a year, 50% below the 2005 peak, within 15 years (2022) — Hank · horizon: 2037 (≈ 2037-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2022-08-12: Citing Jesse Jenkins's models, Hank says US emissions will probably fall to 3.5 billion tons within 15 years, 50% below the peak. (hedged: "probably") — The Biggest Climate Bill of Your Life - But What does it DO!? 00:03:31
• 2022-08-12 · Hank: few cars will qualify for the new EV tax credit at first, and they will sell out quickly (2022) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2022-08-12: Because of the manufacturing requirements, few cars will qualify for the EV credit at first, and they will sell very quickly. — The Biggest Climate Bill of Your Life - But What does it DO!? 00:10:15
  • later on the channel 2025-11-14: Hank says one legislative mechanism is left: giant filibuster-proof spending packages such as the Inflation Reduction Act and the One Big Beautiful Bill, shipping containers of an administration's policy. — The End of The Penny (and of Congress??) 00:04:50
• 2022-08-12 · Hank: the Inflation Reduction Act will cut US CO2 emissions by roughly a billion tons a year by 2030 (2022) — Hank · horizon: 2030 (≈ 2030-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2022-08-12: By 2030 the bill cuts about a billion tons of CO2 a year: transport 280 million, power 360 million, industry 130 million, buildings about 70 million. — The Biggest Climate Bill of Your Life - But What does it DO!? 00:17:21
  • later on the channel 2025-11-14: Hank says one legislative mechanism is left: giant filibuster-proof spending packages such as the Inflation Reduction Act and the One Big Beautiful Bill, shipping containers of an administration's policy. — The End of The Penny (and of Congress??) 00:04:50
• 2022-09-16 · Hank: the shingles vaccine will eventually be available to younger people (2022) — Hank · horizon: eventually · no report on the channel · not counted (sincere)
  • forecast 2022-09-16: Hank guesses the shingles vaccine will eventually be available to younger people. (speculative) — Here's Why Younger People are Getting Shingles 00:03:13
  • later on the channel 2026-03-17: John says the shingles vaccine has been a huge hit, generating over 14 billion dollars for GSK. — Tuberculosis and Hank's Shingles 00:01:56
• 2022-11-11 · Hank: building a sustainable business on Twitter's drama under Musk seems like it would be hard (2022) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2022-11-11: Hank has no idea whether a sustainable business can be built this way, but it seems like it would be hard. (hedged: "It seems like it would be hard") — Elon Was Right 00:02:55
  • later on the channel 2025-04-11 (said on 2025-04-10, implied): Hank says support for tariffs is not universal in the administration: Elon Musk recently called Navarro a moron. — How Actually Crazy is This Mess? 00:07:48
• 2022-11-15 · John: the Sewafe clinic may see even more patients as it grows stronger (2022) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2022-11-15: John says the clinic may see even more patients as it grows stronger, making this a critical time; they hope support will increase too. (hedged: "it may") — 3 Years In: What Happened, Why, and What's Next 00:05:50
• 2022-12-09 · Hank: it will probably be five or ten years before we know what questions to ask about AI (2022) — Hank · horizon: 2032 (≈ 2032-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2022-12-09: Hank says groups around AI are forming in real time now, and it will probably be five or ten years before we know what questions we are asking and what the dominant perspectives are. (hedged: "probably") — Things are Changing Very Fast 00:00:29
  • repeated 2025-10-17 (2.9 years later): Hank thinks AI's most impactful effects will be things nobody has any idea of now: beyond five years everything is up in the air, and beyond ten the dominant forces will be unthought of. — We Never Know What Anything Means 00:03:10
• 2022-12-09 · Hank: AI like ChatGPT will be great at getting people to dislike each other more (2022) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2022-12-09: Hank thinks such AI will be great at easy problems, like getting people to dislike each other more. — Things are Changing Very Fast 00:02:55
  • repeated 2025-10-17 (2.9 years later): Admitting his bias, Hank says we need to worry whether AI will continue us down the path of losing trust in each other and faith in humanity. — We Never Know What Anything Means 00:03:40
  • later on the channel 2023-12-15: Hank asked ChatGPT about the pun, and it said it had heard it before and called it a funny coincidence of pronunciation. — Cat...I Farted. 00:01:58
  • later on the channel 2024-08-23: Hank explains generative AI works only by training on enormous data and needs ever more; OpenAI made ChatGPT, which started the boom, by training on everything. — Is Google Training AI on YouTube Videos? 00:12:56

2023 (23)

• 2023-01-06 · Hank: humans will make a living computer within his lifetime (2023) — Hank · horizon: lifetime · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2023-01-06: Hank says it seems humans will make a living computer sometime in his lifetime. (hedged: "it seems like") — After 12 hours in LA I'm a stand-up comic doing ASMR with a side gig as a music promoter 00:02:35
• 2023-03-03 · Hank: the Supreme Court will not find YouTube liable for recommending videos (2023) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2023-03-03: Hank says it looks like the Supreme Court will not find YouTube liable in this case. (hedged: "It looks like") — The Law That Made the Internet 00:02:15
• 2023-03-31 · Hank: the AI wave will bring 30 to 40 giant AI developments within three months to five years (2023) — Hank · horizon: 2028 (≈ 2028-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2023-03-31: Hank says the current AI wave looks set to become 30 to 40 giant AI developments over the next three months to five years, and he is not ready. (hedged: "it's starting to seem a little bit like") — The Coming AI Invasion 00:00:00
• 2023-03-31 · Hank: the next couple of decades will be a period of rapid change for society and ecology (2023) — Hank · horizon: 2043 (≈ 2043-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2023-03-31: Hank says it feels obvious that for society and ecology the next couple of decades will be fast times, and urges viewers to get ready. (hedged: "it's starting to feel kind of obvious") — The Coming AI Invasion 00:03:37
• 2023-04-21 · Hank: Montana's TikTok ban will be fought in the courts (2023) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2023-04-21: Hank expects the ban to be fought in the courts in a number of ways. (hedged: "I do imagine") — On TikTok Bans 00:00:47
• 2023-05-02 · John: the Maternal Center of Excellence's first wards will open in 2024 (2023) — John · horizon: 2024 (≈ 2024-12-31) · proved wrong
  • forecast 2023-05-02: John says the MCOE's first wards will hopefully open next year (2024). (hedged: "hopefully") — GOOD NEWS 00:01:56
  • repeated 2024-01-16 (259 days later): John says some of the maternal and infant care center's wards will open this year (2024). — The Bank of Nerdfighteria 00:00:40
  • → proved wrong 2025-05-13 (2.0 years later): John announces that the long-dreamed-of Maternal Center of Excellence will complete construction in October and, after intensive training and protocol refinement, begin opening to patients in January. — I Have the BEST News 00:02:59
  • → proved wrong 2026-02-20 (2.8 years later): Hank announces that this weekend, during P4A, which was instrumental in building the Paul E. Farmer Maternal Center of Excellence at Koidu Government Hospital, the first baby was born in Sierra Leone's first NICU. — What We Actually Did. 00:03:49
• 2023-07-11 · John: caring about infectious disease only when it hits rich countries will breed an incurable pandemic strain (2023) — John · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2023-07-11: John warns that if global health keeps caring about infectious disease only when it affects rich countries, resistance will grow until an incurable strain causes a pandemic reaching rich countries. — Barely Contained Rage: An Open Letter to Johnson & Johnson 00:01:27
• 2023-07-11 · John: denying bedaquiline to six million people will badly hurt Johnson & Johnson's reputation (2023) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2023-07-11: Speaking to J&J's executives as one CEO to another, John says this is a bad business decision: denying bedaquiline to six million people will badly hurt the company's valuable reputation. — Barely Contained Rage: An Open Letter to Johnson & Johnson 00:06:19
  • later on the channel 2023-07-14: Recapping John's video, Hank says bedaquiline, a drug for multidrug-resistant TB, has been around for 20 years and its patent is expiring, but J&J looked set to extend it four more years. — The Good News Video 00:00:00
  • later on the channel 2023-07-18: John says young women activists eventually sued the Indian government so that generic bedaquiline could be produced, activism he knew nothing about five years ago. — Tuberculosis Fighters Have a Posse 00:02:55
• 2023-07-14 · Hank: the community will never again achieve something of the magnitude of the bedaquiline licensing win (2023) — Hank · horizon: never · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2023-07-14: Hank doubts the community will ever achieve something that big again: it was possible only because John spent over a year focused on a huge, neglected problem. — The Good News Video 00:03:16
  • later on the channel 2023-07-18: John says young women activists eventually sued the Indian government so that generic bedaquiline could be produced, activism he knew nothing about five years ago. — Tuberculosis Fighters Have a Posse 00:02:55
  • later on the channel 2023-08-15: The description corrects the video: Dr. Girum says Henry was among the first to receive bedaquiline, not the first, but was the first to get a different drug that let him take bedaquiline safely. — Henry video description
• 2023-07-21 · Hank: IceCube's neutrino map of the galaxy will get higher resolution as more collisions are detected (2023) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2023-07-21: Hank predicts that as more collisions are detected, and hopefully detection improves, the neutrino map of the galaxy will get higher resolution. — The Biggest Weirdest Telescope We've Ever Built 00:07:23
• 2023-07-21 · Hank: neutrino observations and the gravitational wave background could help rewrite the laws of physics (2023) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2023-07-21: Hank says neutrino observations, together with the gravitational wave background data, could help rewrite the laws of physics. (hedged: "could") — The Biggest Weirdest Telescope We've Ever Built 00:07:52
• 2023-08-04 · Hank: the geoengineering debate will become a bigger and bigger deal over the coming years and decades (2023) — Hank · horizon: coming · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2023-08-04: Hank predicts the geoengineering conversation will become a bigger and bigger deal over the next few decades as we face hard decisions about climate impacts. — The Biggest Science Story of the Week 00:00:29
• 2023-08-04 · Hank: within 10 to 20 years heat will cause many marine extinctions and many human deaths, including in the US (2023) — Hank · horizon: 2043 (≈ 2043-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2023-08-04: Hank predicts that within 10 or 20 years it will be hot enough to cause many marine extinctions and many human deaths, including heat deaths in the US. — The Biggest Science Story of the Week 00:04:40
• 2023-08-25 · Hank: by 10 or 20 years from now there will be even better treatments for his cancer (2023) — Hank · horizon: 2043 (≈ 2043-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2023-08-25: Hank says if his cancer came back in 10 or 20 years that would probably be great, because by then he guesses there will be even better treatments. (hedged: "my guess is") — Remission 00:05:51
  • repeated 2025-04-18 (1.6 years later): Hank says that 10 or 20 years from now, when leukemia would be most likely for him, maybe there will be better treatment or monitoring, if science continues, which he never used to worry about. (hedged: "maybe") — I Still Don't Have Cancer (and I'm Still Scared) 00:02:31
• 2023-09-12 · John: $5 GeneXpert TB tests would likely save hundreds of thousands of lives over 10 years (2023) — John · horizon: 2033 (≈ 2033-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2023-09-12: John says lowering the tests' price to $5 would likely save hundreds of thousands of lives over the next 10 years. (hedged: "likely") — Barely Contained Rage: An Open Letter to Danaher and Cepheid 00:07:13
  • later on the channel 2023-09-14: Dr. Sinha says GeneXpert shows within two hours whether you have TB and whether it is drug-resistant, while culture-based resistance testing takes months, often too late. — Talking Tuberculosis, GeneXpert, J&J, and more with MY HEROES 00:24:27
  • later on the channel 2023-09-15: Hank says sequencing many TB strains revealed the resistance sequences, so a machine can run a sample through a cartridge that shows both whether it is TB and whether it is drug-resistant. — The Worst Disease in Human History 00:03:56
• 2023-09-14 · John: Danaher and Cepheid will eventually respond to the TB test campaign because it will keep escalating (2023) — John · horizon: eventually · came true
  • forecast 2023-09-14: John says they have not heard from Danaher and Cepheid but will eventually, because the campaign will keep escalating. — Talking Tuberculosis, GeneXpert, J&J, and more with MY HEROES 00:39:11
  • → came true 2023-09-19 (5 days later): John reports that minutes before recording, USAID, the Global Fund and the Stop TB Partnership announced Danaher's standard TB cartridge would fall from $10 to $7.97, not the hoped-for 50% cut but significant. — So, um.... GOOD NEWS?!?!?! 00:00:00
  • recalled 2024-03-26 (194 days later): John argues signing this petition is not a shout into the void: Danaher has responded to polite but insistent pressure, and such pressure seems the only way to change its system. — I Own Danaher 00:00:40
• 2023-09-27 · John: over the next decade the world will choose to end deaths from tuberculosis (2023) — John · horizon: 2033 (≈ 2033-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2023-09-27: John believes that, working together over the next decade, we will choose a world where no one dies of tuberculosis. — John Goes ... to the UNITED NATIONS? 00:04:31
• 2023-10-04 · Hank: within 10 to 20 years renewables will be far better than fossil fuel infrastructure and fossil fuels will fall out of use (2023) — Hank · horizon: 2043 (≈ 2043-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2023-10-04: Hank predicts that in 10 to 20 years renewables will be far better than fossil fuel infrastructure, and we simply won't use fossil fuels. (hedged: "I think") — A Messy and Unhinged Introduction to Geoengineering 00:05:54
• 2023-10-05 · John: AFC Wimbledon will lose some of its best players in the January 2024 transfer window (2023) — John · horizon: 2024-01 (≈ 2024-01-31) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2023-10-05: John is sure AFC Wimbledon will lose a bunch of its best players in the January transfer window. — America's Second Favorite Fourth Tier English Soccer Team 00:04:29
• 2023-10-24 · John: Sierra Leone will soon have its first radiotherapy for cancer patients (2023) — John · horizon: soon · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2023-10-24: John says Sierra Leone will soon, hopefully, have its first radiotherapy available for cancer patients. (hedged: "hopefully") — A Tale of Two Cancers 00:03:45
• 2023-12-01 · Hank: Good Store's holiday stock will sell out before December 8 (2023) — Hank · horizon: 2023-12-08 (≈ 2023-12-08) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2023-12-01: Hank predicts that, on current trends, the Good Store holiday items will probably sell out before December 8. (hedged: "probably") — It's OK if you think less of me after this! 00:05:53
• 2023-12-05 · John: the WHO will soon recommend the new nine-month endTB regimens for MDR-TB (2023) — John · horizon: soon · came true
  • forecast 2023-12-05: John hopes the WHO will soon recommend the new shorter regimens, meaning more people surviving MDR-TB and less MDR-TB in the world. (hedged: "hopefully") — MASSIVE Tuberculosis News 00:02:55
  • → came true 2024-09-27 (297 days later): John says Partners In Health helped fund the endTB trials, which found shorter, less toxic regimens that cure MDR-TB, and last week (week of 16 September 2024) the WHO adopted them as recommended regimens. — Is It 2010? IT'S A PARTS VIDEO 00:00:13
• 2023-12-19 · John: Danaher will become an ally in getting more TB tests to more people more affordably (2023) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2023-12-19: John says Danaher can, and he believes will, be an ally in the fight to get more tests to more people more affordably. — End of a Rough Year 00:04:22

2024 (33)

• 2024-01-02 · John: Nerdfighteria will stick around (2024) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2024-01-02: John suspects Nerdfighteria will stick around, because it somehow has amid an ocean of higher-res, algorithm-optimized content. (hedged: "I suspect") — Being Old on YouTube 00:03:42
  • repeated 2024-11-01 (304 days later): John says Nerdfighteria is not weakening because of generative AI; maybe in five years, but right now it is stronger and more interesting than ever. — Working Through a Crisis with My Brother 00:04:01
• 2024-01-05 · Hank: AI will be bad for apprenticeship as companies give entry-level jobs to computers (2024) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2024-01-05: Hank worries AI will make it even harder for young people to find a place in the American economy, already hard because policies and systems steer wealth to older people. — I'm Scared of 2024...So Here's 3 Optimistic Thoughts 00:00:29
  • predicted 2025-10-17 (1.8 years later): Hank says AI will be bad for apprenticeship: entry-level jobs for people leaving school are now done by computers, and companies will try them out to save money whether or not they are good at it. — We Never Know What Anything Means 00:02:55
• 2024-01-05 · Hank: the number of people dying in wars will increase again in 2024 (2024) — Hank · horizon: 2024 (≈ 2024-12-31) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2024-01-05: Hank is fairly certain the number of people dying in wars will increase again in 2024. (hedged: "fairly certain") — I'm Scared of 2024...So Here's 3 Optimistic Thoughts 00:01:03
• 2024-01-05 · Hank: Donald Trump will be on the ballot in the November 2024 presidential election (2024) — Hank · horizon: 2024-11 (≈ 2024-11-30) · came true
  • forecast 2024-01-05: Hank is certain Donald Trump will be on the ballot in November, which puts him way too close to being president again, something absolutely possible. — I'm Scared of 2024...So Here's 3 Optimistic Thoughts 00:01:03
  • → came true 2024-11-08 (308 days later): In a channel comment Hank clarifies that Trump got way more votes than in 2020 and Harris way fewer than Biden: the swing was decisive and national. — These Maps are Lying (if you let them) creator comment
• 2024-01-05 · Hank: creators' pushback will slow generative AI down (2024) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2024-01-05: Hank thinks this pushback is going to slow generative AI down. — I'm Scared of 2024...So Here's 3 Optimistic Thoughts 00:02:31
• 2024-01-05 · Hank: lower interest rates will encourage investment and hopefully more homes (2024) — Hank · horizon: coming · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2024-01-05: Hank says inflation coming under control means interest rates can fall again, encouraging investment, hopefully more homes, and letting more people sell their homes. (hedged: "hopefully") — I'm Scared of 2024...So Here's 3 Optimistic Thoughts 00:03:00
• 2024-01-12 · Hank: today's tricks for spotting AI-generated images will not work within a year (2024) — Hank · horizon: 2025-01 (≈ 2025-01-31) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2024-01-12: First reason: the models will keep improving, so today's tricks for spotting AI images will not work even a year from now. — How to Detect AI Images (and why it doesn't matter) 00:02:20
  • repeated 2024-01-12 (same video): In a comment Hank softens the video: he doesn't think we'll be unable to tell the difference in a year, only that the video's tools will be less useful. — How to Detect AI Images (and why it doesn't matter) creator comment
• 2024-01-16 · John: keeping up the growth of the brothers' merch-project charity donations will be really challenging (2024) — John · horizon: not stated · came true
  • forecast 2024-01-16: John says keeping up that growth in donations will be really challenging, mostly because the company and Nerdfighteria got a ton of media attention last year (2023) for something they do not want to repeat. — The Bank of Nerdfighteria 00:01:16
  • → came true 2024-11-03 (292 days later): Hank says Good Store is now a fairly big company doing well, donated millions of dollars to charity last year (2023) and will this year (2024), but its growth has slowed. — Hank's very messy post-cancer year of mistakes, meaning… 00:09:21
  • → came true 2025-11-24 (1.9 years later): John says, as a Reddit post noticed, Good Store donated far more in 2023 than this year (2025) or last; this year (2025) will probably be a little up on last year (2024) but down from 2023. (hedged: "probably") — Good Store Holiday Gift Guide LIVE with Hank and John 00:11:51
• 2024-01-26 · Hank: Tom Scott will not stop being creative and will make other things (2024) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2024-01-26: Hank, who knows Tom Scott, says he won't stop being creative and will make other things. — On YouTuber Retirement 00:02:15
  • later on the channel 2024-01-30: John commented 'congrats, Tom' on Tom Scott's last video, and many people replied asking why he would congratulate him on stopping. — How Vlogbrothers Will End 00:01:38
• 2024-02-09 · Hank: direct air capture will get cheaper and eventually become important for removing existing CO2 (2024) — Hank · horizon: eventually · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2024-02-09: Hank predicts direct air capture's cost will eventually fall and, with few other ways to remove existing CO2, it will become important, though not for a while. — My Favorite Climate Graph 00:04:44
• 2024-03-01 · Hank: electric cars are the future (2024) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2024-03-01: Asked whether electric cars are the future, Hank says they are. — Flyana Boss Asks Hank Anything 00:02:26
• 2024-06-04 · John: the Sun will become a red giant and then a white dwarf that probably absorbs Earth's remains (2024) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2024-06-04: John concludes that we are headed to probably being part of a white dwarf. (hedged: "probably") — how it all ends 00:02:26
• 2024-06-14 · Hank: the costs of solar panels, wind turbines and batteries will keep going lower (2024) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2024-06-14: Hank says the enormous engineering work behind it has been mind-blowing and very good news, and there is every signal that the costs of solar panels, wind turbines and batteries will keep going lower. — Some Reasons why People Suck 00:00:00
• 2024-06-18 · John: the Maternal Center of Excellence will fully open in 2025 (2024) — John · horizon: 2025 (≈ 2025-12-31) · conditional · proved wrong
  • forecast 2024-06-18: John says the hospital will not fully open until next year (2025). — The Tea 00:01:27
  • → proved wrong 2025-05-13 (329 days later): John announces that the long-dreamed-of Maternal Center of Excellence will complete construction in October and, after intensive training and protocol refinement, begin opening to patients in January. — I Have the BEST News 00:02:59
  • → proved wrong 2026-02-20 (1.7 years later): Hank announces that this weekend, during P4A, which was instrumental in building the Paul E. Farmer Maternal Center of Excellence at Koidu Government Hospital, the first baby was born in Sierra Leone's first NICU. — What We Actually Did. 00:03:49
• 2024-08-02 · Hank: in 100 years otherwise healthy people will not get colds (2024) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2024-08-02: Hank predicts that in 100 years otherwise healthy people's immune systems will be optimized so they simply do not get colds, and the future will find past sniffles adorable. — My Letter to the Future 00:00:59
• 2024-08-02 · Hank: in 100 years people will kill few animals for food and look back on it with horror (2024) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2024-08-02: Hank predicts we will not kill many animals for food and will look back on it with horror; chicken products especially will be replaced by nutritionally and ethically superior ones. — My Letter to the Future 00:00:59
• 2024-08-02 · Hank: in 100 years much of the American interior will be wild, with more than 10 million bison (2024) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2024-08-02: Hank predicts today's agricultural land use will be seen as outrageous, much of the American interior will be wild, and America will have more than 10 million bison. — My Letter to the Future 00:01:28
• 2024-08-02 · Hank: people in 100 years will call us very racist while still being racist in their own ways (2024) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2024-08-02: Hank tells the future it will look back and call us so racist, while still being somewhat racist in its own different ways. — My Letter to the Future 00:01:57
• 2024-08-02 · Hank: climate change will be solved, with geothermal power a big part of the solution (2024) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2024-08-02: Hank thinks the future will figure out climate change, and makes a risky bet that geothermal power will be a big part of it, which people will then call obvious. — My Letter to the Future 00:01:57
• 2024-08-02 · Hank: fusion power will exist but be a niche technology (2024) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2024-08-02: Hank says everyone now expects fusion to be the answer; he bets fusion will exist but be a niche technology. — My Letter to the Future 00:02:27
• 2024-08-02 · Hank: in 100 years people will find our overpopulation worries crazy while struggling with an economy without population growth (2024) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2024-08-02: Hank predicts people will find our worry about overpopulation crazy, as they struggle long to move to an economy not fueled by constant population growth. — My Letter to the Future 00:02:27
• 2024-08-02 · Hank: people in 100 years will find breathing internal combustion engine exhaust disgusting (2024) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2024-08-02: Hank predicts the future will find it disgusting and ridiculous that we inhaled internal combustion engine exhaust all our lives. — My Letter to the Future 00:02:51
• 2024-08-02 · Hank: relationships with artificial minds will be a normal part of daily life in 100 years (2024) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2024-08-02: Hank predicts artificial minds will be a huge part of daily life; he does not know what the relationships will look like, but people will find them normal. — My Letter to the Future 00:02:51
• 2024-08-02 · Hank: people will someday move on from Twitter, Facebook and Instagram, which will not simply evolve (2024) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2024-08-02: Hank predicts Americans in 100 years will not know what Twitter was and barely know Facebook or TikTok, but will still carry phones and watch YouTube videos. — My Letter to the Future 00:03:20
  • predicted 2025-10-06 (1.2 years later): Hank says that someday we will have moved on from Twitter, Facebook and Instagram; he doesn't know to what, but unlike London or Detroit they will not simply evolve. — The Web is Going to Die 00:04:23
  • repeated 2026-01-30 (1.5 years later): Hank predicts a reversal of fortune for content platforms: in a thousand years Facebook will at most be mentioned in a history book, a relic like gasoline cars. — Has Anyone Ever Accidentally Seen me Naked (Question Tuesday on a Friday) 00:03:54
• 2024-08-02 · Hank: in 100 years Americans will not know Twitter but will still carry phones and watch YouTube (2024) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2024-08-02: Hank predicts Americans in 100 years will not know what Twitter was and barely know Facebook or TikTok, but will still carry phones and watch YouTube videos. — My Letter to the Future 00:03:20
  • repeated 2024-08-07 (5 days later): Hank, citing his video last week (week of 29 July 2024), says he is convinced YouTube is not past its prime. — Dear Hank and John Livestream! 00:15:05
• 2024-08-09 · Hank: making subscriptions hard to cancel will soon be illegal (2024) — Hank · horizon: soon · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2024-08-09: Hank says the good news is that hard-to-cancel subscriptions probably won't last much longer. (hedged: "probably") — Why isn't This Illegal? 00:02:50
• 2024-08-23 · Hank: the EU AI Act's 2026 training-data disclosure will reveal within two years what AI companies trained on (2024) — Hank · horizon: 2026 (≈ 2026-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2024-08-23: Hank predicts that in two years everyone will know, and asks YouTube whether it would rather let creators clean up its dataset and agree or not to the new use now. — Is Google Training AI on YouTube Videos? 00:27:01
• 2024-08-27 · John: large language models will earn Google billions while the users whose content made them possible get nothing (2024) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2024-08-27: John says these language models will earn Google billions of dollars while the users whose content made them possible get nothing. — How The Internet Is Rigged 00:05:21
• 2024-09-13 · Hank: Donald Trump will not accept the result if he loses the 2024 presidential election (2024) — Hank · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2024-09-13: Hank says Trump appears to be preparing everyone for him not accepting the result if he loses this election too. (hedged: "appears to be") — My Governor is Weirder than Yours 00:38:14
• 2024-11-01 · Hank: media will soon be flipped over again by autonomous AI agents that create on their own (2024) — Hank · horizon: soon · came true
  • forecast 2024-11-01: Hank says media has already been completely flipped over and is about to be flipped over again by autonomous agents that can create on their own. — Working Through a Crisis with My Brother 00:05:07
  • → came true 2025-10-06 (339 days later): With content now able to make itself, Hank wonders what keeps the decentralized web alive and says the web is becoming a ghost town, visited to remember how life used to be shaped (Homestar Runner, Delicious, Fark.com). — The Web is Going to Die 00:03:54
• 2024-11-01 · John: he and Hank will find something new they use differently from most people, as with community video in 2005 (2024) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel · not counted (sincere)
  • forecast 2024-11-01: John predicts something will emerge that he and Hank find interesting and use differently from most people, as community-based video did in 2005, and they will find fulfilment in it. (speculative) — Working Through a Crisis with My Brother 00:06:49
• 2024-11-08 · Hank: the Trump administration will want to do weird and wild things over the next four years that people will need to push back against (2024) — Hank · horizon: 2028 (≈ 2028-12-31) · came true
  • forecast 2024-11-08: Hank thinks over the next four years people will need energy to push back against the weirdest and wildest things the Trump administration will want to do. — These Maps are Lying (if you let them) 00:05:01
  • → came true 2025-02-07 (91 days later): Hank says a country cannot run if everything is burned down every four years, but Trump, Elon Musk or whoever seem to want to test the country's limits, and are doing so. — What Trump's Doing 00:01:32
  • → came true 2025-04-11 (said on 2025-04-10, implied) (153 days later): Hank says Trump-era news is too much to keep track of, so he sorts the weird parts of the Liberation Day tariff story into a YouTube tier list by level of crazy. — How Actually Crazy is This Mess? 00:00:00
• 2024-11-22 · Hank: the internet's destruction of trust will not stop getting worse soon (2024) — Hank · horizon: soon · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2024-11-22: Hank does not think the destruction of trust will stop getting worse soon, would love to be proved wrong, and allows it may be less bad than he thinks. (hedged: "Maybe it's not as bad as I think it is") — Populism, Media Revolutions, and Our Terrible Moment 00:24:12

2025 (40)

• 2025-01-14 · John: AFC Wimbledon will be promoted from League Two in the 2024-25 season (2025) — John · horizon: 2025-05 (≈ 2025-05-31) · horizon passed in this snapshot, no report · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-01-14: John, admitting he has never seen him play, truly believes Marcus Browne will help AFC Wimbledon get promoted this season. — So I Bought My Team a Pro Football Player 00:03:24
  • recalled 2025-05-20 (126 days later): John says that without Marcus Browne he is genuinely not sure Wimbledon would be in the play-off final. (hedged: "I'm genuinely not sure") — The Double 00:04:22
  • later on the channel 2025-04-22: John says new central attacking midfielder Marcus Browne, signed with money from John's FIFA stream, makes the team look dangerous. — The Unimportant Things 00:03:23
  • later on the channel 2026-02-14: After Marcus Browne scores to put AFC Wimbledon 3-2 up from 2-0 down, John says he doesn't think they have come from two goals down to win since seven or eight years ago. — Project for Awesome 2026 part 3! 01:43:08
• 2025-01-28 · John: if the US foreign aid pause is not amended to exclude diagnostics and medication, many people will die (2025) — John · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-01-28: John says that if the so-called pause on aid is not amended to exclude diagnostics and medication, many people will die. — This Is Not Normal 00:04:52
  • repeated 2025-02-11 (14 days later): John says a resurgence of TB, especially drug-resistant TB, would mean not thousands but millions or tens of millions more premature deaths. — What's at Stake 00:02:55
• 2025-02-07 · Hank: the law will stand against the president's unilateral dismantling of USAID (2025) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-02-07: Hank predicts that the law will stand. — What Trump's Doing 00:05:21
  • later on the channel 2025-04-11 (said on 2025-04-10, implied): Hank says Congress's taxing power is in the Constitution's second article, not an amendment. — How Actually Crazy is This Mess? 00:17:43
• 2025-02-14 · Hank: USAID funding may stay interrupted for a long time (2025) — Hank · horizon: not stated · came true
  • forecast 2025-02-14: Hank says USAID's funding may stay interrupted for a long time. (hedged: "may") — Let's Do a Good 00:00:16
  • → came true 2025-10-28 (256 days later): John says USAID abandoned its commitment to fund part of the project, but PIH, Sarah and John stayed committed because the Philippine government did. — Elon Cancelled This...Let's Do it Anyway 00:01:27
• 2025-02-28 · Hank: humanity will eventually eradicate measles (2025) — Hank · horizon: eventually · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-02-28: Hank predicts humanity will eventually eradicate measles: they will worry until then, it can be done, that world is better, and we'll get there, though it is hard. — We Will Eradicate Measles 00:05:02
  • repeated 2026-08-28 (1.5 years later): Hank says measles was declared eliminated from the United States in 2000, showing it can be eliminated from the whole world. — Why the Deadliest Virus Was the Easiest to Kill 00:04:52
• 2025-02-28 · Hank: countries will hover around a 95% measles vaccination rate, dipping into outbreaks and recovering, until measles is eradicated (2025) — Hank · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-02-28: Hank predicts countries will hover around 95% measles vaccination, dipping below into outbreaks and climbing back to 96, until measles is eradicated. — We Will Eradicate Measles 00:06:08
  • partly came true 2026-08-25 (1.5 years later): US childhood vaccination rates fell only modestly in the last couple of years, from about 95% to 92%, but even that lets highly infectious diseases prosper. — The Great Thing about Infectious Disease 00:03:53
• 2025-02-28 · Hank: his Republican members of Congress will eventually stand up to Trump taking away their power (2025) — Hank · horizon: eventually · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-02-28: Hank's script predicts his representatives will eventually stand up to Donald Trump taking away their power, asking whether they will be among the first, as he hopes. — We Will Eradicate Measles 00:07:56
• 2025-03-04 · John: overall human health will get worse as the US and other countries cut health investment (2025) — John · horizon: 2027 (≈ 2027-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-03-04: John says millions of lives are at risk and overall human health will get worse, which should stress us out. — The ANXIETY IS PALPABLE 00:02:00
  • repeated 2025-03-18 (14 days later): John says US government spending cuts mean, by one estimate, a probable 30% increase in drug-resistant tuberculosis in the next couple of years. (hedged: "probably") — ITS ALL HAPPENING 00:03:20
  • repeated 2025-04-15 (42 days later): John cites an estimate that within two years, without restored funding, TB deaths will rise from 1.25 million to 2 million, up 750,000; TB is the deadliest infectious disease. (hedged: "I think") — Chatting with ... a U.S. Senator? 00:15:51
  • repeated 2025-06-10 (98 days later): John says graphs of child mortality, TB and HIV deaths since 2000 all bring good news, but this progress will stop and reverse because of the US-led global pullback in health funding. — 90,000,000 Lives for $20 00:00:00
• 2025-03-18 · John: US spending cuts will probably bring a 30% rise in drug-resistant TB within a couple of years (2025) — John · horizon: 2027 (≈ 2027-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-03-18: John says US government spending cuts mean, by one estimate, a probable 30% increase in drug-resistant tuberculosis in the next couple of years. (hedged: "probably") — ITS ALL HAPPENING 00:03:20
  • repeated 2025-04-15 (28 days later): John says the world could easily return there: hundreds of thousands are having TB treatment interrupted, which will cause skyrocketing drug-resistant TB, terrifying everywhere. — Chatting with ... a U.S. Senator? 00:13:38
• 2025-04-08 · John: interest on the US federal debt will go up again as spending rises and revenue falls (2025) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-04-08: John says 13% goes to interest on the debt (set to rise again), making 75% with the big four; veterans' benefits are 6%, unemployment, federal retirement and nutrition about 11%, and USAID sits in 3% other. — DOGE Is Not Cutting Government Spending 00:01:56
• 2025-04-08 · John: the overall US federal budget is unlikely to be cut while attention stays on tiny spending categories (2025) — John · horizon: eventually · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-04-08: John says a cut to the overall federal budget may eventually come, but has not yet and is unlikely while everyone focuses on tiny spending categories. (hedged: "unlikely") — DOGE Is Not Cutting Government Spending 00:02:26
• 2025-04-15 · John: about 15 years of progress against tuberculosis will be lost within the next year (2025) — John · horizon: 2026 (≈ 2026-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-04-15: John says TB deaths have fallen by 50% in the last 25 years, and finds it tragic that 15 years of progress will be walked back in the next year. — Chatting with ... a U.S. Senator? 00:20:36
• 2025-04-18 · Hank: a new kind of movie made for collaborative theater audiences probably won't happen (2025) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-04-18: Hank muses about a new kind of movie made for a vibrant, collaborative theater experience, but says it probably won't happen. (hedged: "probably") — This one's for your mom 00:50:15
• 2025-04-25 · Hank: fewer births will bring a demographic shift that strains Social Security and much else (2025) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-04-25: Hank says fewer births will bring a demographic shift; a society with far more old than young people strains Social Security and much else, a real situation needing attention. — How We Form Opinions 00:06:32
• 2025-04-25 · Hank: society may see the harm of losing taboos on inflammatory rhetoric and reinstate them soon (2025) — Hank · horizon: soon · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-04-25: Hank feels we have lost many of those taboos, but perhaps we will see the negative effects and reinstate them soon. (hedged: "perhaps") — How We Form Opinions 00:08:43
• 2025-05-13 · John: the Maternal Center of Excellence will complete construction in October 2025 and begin opening to patients in January 2026 (2025) — John · horizon: 2026-01 (≈ 2026-01-31) · came true
  • forecast 2025-05-13: John announces that the long-dreamed-of Maternal Center of Excellence will complete construction in October and, after intensive training and protocol refinement, begin opening to patients in January. — I Have the BEST News 00:02:59
  • repeated 2025-10-01 (141 days later): John says the Maternal Center of Excellence at Koidu Government Hospital opens next month (November 2025). — Real Reasons for Hope 00:03:53
  • repeated 2025-10-31 (171 days later): Hank says when the MCOE's doors open in early 2026, lives will be saved immediately. — We Did It… 00:07:14
  • partly came true 2025-11-11 (182 days later): John reminds himself that, as Hank noted last week (week of 3 November 2025), the ribbon has been cut on the completed Maternal Center of Excellence in Sierra Leone. — John's Annual Psychophysical Decline 00:00:58
  • → came true 2026-02-20 (283 days later): Hank announces that this weekend, during P4A, which was instrumental in building the Paul E. Farmer Maternal Center of Excellence at Koidu Government Hospital, the first baby was born in Sierra Leone's first NICU. — What We Actually Did. 00:03:49
  • → came true 2026-02-24 (287 days later): John says the Paul Farmer Maternal Center of Excellence finally opened at Koidu Government Hospital, radically transforming infant and maternal care in eastern Sierra Leone. — Risk Is a Privilege 00:00:00
• 2025-05-13 · John: the Maternal Center of Excellence will radically reduce maternal and infant mortality in Kono and beyond (2022) — John · horizon: not stated · came true
  • forecast 2025-05-13: John says the MCOE will care for thousands or tens of thousands of people a year and radically reduce maternal and infant mortality in Kono and beyond. — I Have the BEST News 00:04:32
  • repeated 2022-11-15 (2.5 years earlier): John says the project's biggest hope was that work in one region of one country could prove maternal and child mortality can be radically reduced everywhere and inspire other partners, which is starting to happen. — 3 Years In: What Happened, Why, and What's Next 00:04:22
  • repeated 2025-10-01 (141 days later): John says maternal mortality at the hospital will decline further with the opening next month (November 2025) of the Maternal Center of Excellence there. — Real Reasons for Hope 00:03:53
  • repeated 2025-10-31 (171 days later): Hank says the MCOE's real impact, healthier mothers, stronger families and a more resilient health system, will grow over years. — We Did It… 00:07:14
  • → came true 2026-04-14 (336 days later): John says mothers and children who could have died now survive every week in Kono, and the community has played a small but significant role. — Babies. Babies. Babies. 00:03:24
  • → came true 2026-04-28 (350 days later): John says 500 babies were born at the MCOE in its first six weeks of operation, including over 200 C-sections, many of them emergencies that might otherwise have meant maternal and child death. — What I Can't Show You 00:05:37
• 2025-06-10 · John: if Congress codifies the PEPFAR and US health aid cuts, millions of people will die (2025) — John · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-06-10: John says that if these cuts are codified in US law, it is no exaggeration to say millions of people will die. — 90,000,000 Lives for $20 00:01:27
• 2025-06-10 · John: changing the US Global Fund match to $1 for every $4 will gut the Global Fund (2025) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-06-10: John says the new match would gut the Global Fund, because the UK and EU are also cutting global health spending and will use it as an excuse to cut further. — 90,000,000 Lives for $20 00:02:26
• 2025-06-10 · John: the global health funding pullback will be the greatest setback in human health in a generation (2025) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-06-10: John says this catastrophe will be the greatest setback in human health in a generation. — 90,000,000 Lives for $20 00:02:26
• 2025-06-20 · Hank: online creators will come to be called by a variety of mostly existing words, such as comedian, filmmaker and science communicator (2025) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-06-20: In a comment Hank predicts creators will probably end up with a variety of mostly existing words, such as comedian, filmmaker and science communicator, applied online. (hedged: "probably") — 'Influencer' Must Die. creator comment
• 2025-06-27 · Hank: people will turn away from foods engineered to hack their brains (2025) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-06-27: Hank thinks the long-term solution will be a turn away from foods engineered to hack our brains, toward more food-shaped foods. — You’re Not Addicted to Content, You’re Starving for Information 00:07:08
• 2025-06-27 · Hank: people will come to see manipulative online content as manipulative and cringe (2025) — Hank · horizon: eventually · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-06-27: Hank thinks people will eventually see such content not just as junk food but as manipulative and cringe, treating us as tools, though it will take a long time. — You’re Not Addicted to Content, You’re Starving for Information 00:12:19
• 2025-08-05 · John: neither brother will win their Quadragocon 2025 chess game because neither can checkmate (2025) — John · horizon: not stated · came true
  • forecast 2025-08-05: John predicts neither brother will win their chess game because neither can checkmate the other. (playful) — ONE TAKE JOHNNY 00:06:38
  • → came true 2025-09-19 (45 days later): The chess game ends without checkmate: one brother is disqualified for an illegal bishop move and they agree to call it a draw. (playful) — Let's Just Be Stupid For a Moment 00:05:37
• 2025-08-15 · Hank: the US will prove more resilient than other countries to authoritarian attacks on universities (2025) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-08-15: Hank concludes there are clear reasons the US would be more resilient to these attacks, and that this is visible in how it is playing out. — What Trump is Doing to Universities 00:10:40
• 2025-09-12 · Hank: the Mars sample return mission will not happen in the 2020s (2025) — Hank · horizon: 2029 (≈ 2029-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-09-12: Hank says the Mars sample return mission is definitely not going to happen in the 2020s. — This Might Actually be Happening 00:11:14
• 2025-09-12 · Hank: if life beyond Earth is found in his lifetime, it will not be a big news story (2025) — Hank · horizon: lifetime · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-09-12: Hank says finding life beyond Earth in his lifetime is totally possible, but as a slow tipping of the scales it probably won't be a big news story, though it would be the biggest story ever. (hedged: "probably") — This Might Actually be Happening 00:18:02
• 2025-10-03 · John: many connections formed by Nerdfighteria will outlive Vlogbrothers by decades (2025) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-10-03: John knows many viewers will be disappointed when Vlogbrothers ends, but they will go on doing amazing things, and many connections formed by the community will outlive Vlogbrothers by decades. — Is It Time to Retire? 00:03:20
• 2025-10-09 · John: AI-generated content online is going to be a big deal (2025) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-10-09: John says he doesn't even know what AI-generated content will mean, but he knows it will be a big deal. — I Like Being Alive 00:00:58
• 2025-10-17 · Hank: AI is probably an economic bubble (2025) — Hank · horizon: 2026 (≈ 2026-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-10-17: Hank says AI is going to be economically weird and is probably a bubble. (hedged: "probably") — We Never Know What Anything Means 00:02:50
  • repeated 2025-12-19 (63 days later): Hank says 2026 might bring the popping of the AI bubble, taking a substantial part of the economy down with it. (hedged: "might") — My Big 2026 Prediction is...Not Fun 00:03:54
• 2025-10-17 · Hank: like the telegraph, AI will be a very big deal with impacts much weirder than we think (2025) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-10-17: Hank says that, like the telegraph, AI will be a very big deal with impacts much weirder than we think. — We Never Know What Anything Means 00:03:33
  • repeated 2026-04-24 (189 days later): Hank thinks AI is a big deal that is going to change a lot of things. — The AI Question that No AI Person Asks 00:00:00
• 2025-10-21 · John: books will remain a small business and may shrink over the next decade (2025) — John · horizon: 2035 (≈ 2035-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-10-21: John says books will continue to be a small business and may even shrink somewhat over the next decade. (hedged: "may even") — Is Book Publishing Dying? An Author's Perspective 00:04:21
• 2025-10-21 · John: books will not go away (2025) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-10-21: John says he doesn't think books will go away. — Is Book Publishing Dying? An Author's Perspective 00:04:21
  • repeated 2025-10-24 (3 days later): Hank does not think books are going anywhere: he thinks books will outlive every social media platform. — What Will Books Become? 00:05:47
• 2025-10-21 · John: linear television will probably go away (2025) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-10-21: John thinks linear television will probably go away. (hedged: "probably") — Is Book Publishing Dying? An Author's Perspective 00:04:21
• 2025-10-24 · Hank: books will last as long as humans do but will not stay the same (2025) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-10-24: Hank thinks marking pulped plants with symbols that tell a story will continue for as long as there are humans, but not as exactly the same thing. — What Will Books Become? 00:01:56
  • repeated 2025-10-24 (same video): Hank says the way books work today is not how they have always functionally worked, nor how they will always work. — What Will Books Become? 00:05:47
• 2025-10-24 · Hank: books will have more mini cliffhangers and short self-contained chapters (2025) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-10-24: Hank predicts more mini cliffhangers, and nonfiction self-contained in chapters that can be read or listened to in five to ten minutes. — What Will Books Become? 00:03:04
• 2025-10-28 · John: Guimaras could become the first TB-free region of the Philippines (2025) — John · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-10-28: John believes Guimaras could be the first TB-free region of the Philippines, and if it is possible there, it is possible everywhere. (hedged: "could") — Elon Cancelled This...Let's Do it Anyway 00:03:53
• 2025-10-28 · John: with Guimaras as a blueprint, he might live to see a world without over a million TB deaths a year (2025) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-10-28: John says that with Guimaras as a blueprint for the world, he might live to see a world that no longer loses over a million people a year to TB. (hedged: "might") — Elon Cancelled This...Let's Do it Anyway 00:03:53
• 2025-12-09 · John: Hank's next project will start with a Z, and soon (2025) — John · horizon: soon · came true
  • forecast 2025-12-09: John tells Hank his next project had better start with a Z, and predicts that, knowing Hank, it will, and soon. (playful) — Hank Green, from A to Z 00:05:50
  • → came true 2025-12-12 (3 days later): Hank tells John the project came together quickly because John's A to Z of Hank projects had no Z, so it was a good time to push out an idea he had long had in mind. — The Economics of a YouTube White Noise Video 00:03:53
• 2025-12-19 · Hank: AI will do a lot of damage to Trump's coalition of populists and billionaires in 2026 (2025) — Hank · horizon: 2026 (≈ 2026-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2025-12-19: Hank predicts that AI, a big new force one side loves and the other hates, has a good chance of doing a lot of damage to Trump's coalition. (hedged: "I feel like there's a pretty good chance") — My Big 2026 Prediction is...Not Fun 00:03:25

2026 (34)

• 2026-02-13 · John: the P4A 2026 total will reach $2 million on the night of February 13 or early February 14, 2026 (2026) — John · horizon: 2026-02-14 (≈ 2026-02-14) · came true
  • forecast 2026-02-13: John says the 2026 Project for Awesome could reach $2 million that night or early the next morning. (hedged: "potentially") — Project for Awesome 2026 Kickoff! 08:07:18
  • repeated 2026-02-13 (same day): John says the 2026 Project for Awesome is $440,000 away from $2 million and expects Hank to raise that in the next two hours. (playful) — Project for Awesome 2026 part 2! 00:09:33
  • → came true 2026-02-14 (1 day later): John's forecast comes true: the 2026 Project for Awesome passes $2 million on February 14, 2026. — Project for Awesome 2026 part 3! 00:23:54
• 2026-02-14 · John: the P4A 2026 total will catch up with P4A 2025's if donations keep their pace (2026) — John · horizon: 2026-02-15 (≈ 2026-02-15) · conditional · came true
  • forecast 2026-02-14: John says the 2026 Project for Awesome is just ahead of 2024 and just behind 2025 but has more matching funds, and he is confident it can catch up with 2025 if donations keep their pace. — Project for Awesome 2026 part 4! 00:09:27
  • repeated 2026-02-15 (1 day later): At $1.372 million on Tiltify, $107,000 short of the biggest P4A in history, John says they will definitely get there; the open question is whether during the livestream or after. — Project for Awesome 2026 part 5! 03:22:05
  • → came true 2026-02-15 (1 day later): John's forecast comes true: on 15 February 2026 the 2026 Project for Awesome passes P4A 2025 to become the biggest ever. — Project for Awesome 2026 part 5! 03:57:19
• 2026-02-14 · Hank: the P4A 2026 Tiltify will reach $1 million (2026) — Hank · horizon: 2026-02-14 (≈ 2026-02-14) · came true
  • forecast 2026-02-14: Taking over at $800,000, Hank says he is confident the 2026 Project for Awesome will hit a million dollars raised at the Tiltify. — Project for Awesome 2026 part 3! 02:13:16
  • → came true 2026-02-14 (same day): Hank's forecast comes true: the 2026 Project for Awesome Tiltify passes $1 million on 14 February 2026. — Project for Awesome 2026 part 4! 02:11:14
  • repeated 2026-02-14 (same video): At $906,000, Hank says the 2026 Project for Awesome is going to get to a million dollars today, though he doesn't know how. (hedged: "it feels like") — Project for Awesome 2026 part 3! 05:45:53
• 2026-02-14 · Hank: the P4A 2026 Tiltify will reach its $1,207,000 goal during his evening shift (2026) — Hank · horizon: 2026-02-14 (≈ 2026-02-14) · came true
  • forecast 2026-02-14: Hank has no doubt the Tiltify will reach the night's goal of $1,207,000, where the community-voting organizations' matching funds max out, during his shift, and thinks it should far exceed it. — Project for Awesome 2026 part 4! 05:00:49
  • → came true 2026-02-14 (same video): Hank's forecast comes true: the 2026 Project for Awesome Tiltify passes its $1,207,000 goal during his evening shift. — Project for Awesome 2026 part 4! 06:29:13
• 2026-02-15 · John: Hank's book about cancer will make a huge impact and change many people's understanding of cancer (2026) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-02-15: John thinks Hank's book about cancer is going to light the world on fire, making a huge impact and changing many people's understanding of cancer and of living with it. — Project for Awesome 2026 part 5! 02:47:01
• 2026-02-24 · John: the Maternal Center of Excellence will see some 5,000 births a year for decades (2026) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-02-24: John says the MCOE will see the birth of some 5,000 babies every year, hopefully for decades. (hedged: "hopefully") — Risk Is a Privilege 00:00:00
• 2026-03-10 · John: if the Constitution works, US TB and global health funding will stay about the same (2026) — John · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-03-10: If the Constitution works, John says, the US will keep funding TB and global health at about the same rate, which is a huge win. (hedged: "if the Constitution works") — Is Hank Green Running for Congress? 00:05:31
• 2026-03-17 · John: shingles may no longer exist within a generation or two because of the vaccine (2026) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-03-17: John says shingles, famously painful, may no longer exist within a generation or two because it is now vaccine preventable. (hedged: "may") — Tuberculosis and Hank's Shingles 00:00:58
  • repeated 2026-03-20 (3 days later): The description says Hank is happy to be in the last generation for whom chickenpox and shingles will be normal. — I'm Sick Because of the Social Structures of Early Hominins video description
• 2026-03-20 · Hank: eradicating the varicella zoster virus will be very hard because it breaks back out as shingles where people are unvaccinated (2026) — Hank · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-03-20: Hank says eradicating VZV would be very hard: it lies dormant for decades, so unless everyone stays vaccinated for its whole life cycle, it will break back out through shingles. — I'm Sick Because of the Social Structures of Early Hominins 00:06:16
• 2026-03-27 · Hank: generative AI will raise the already near-infinite amount of content by a couple of orders of magnitude (2026) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-03-27: Hank says generative AI, which makes moving from idea to content extremely easy, will ramp up the infinite amount of content by another couple of orders of magnitude. — What is 'Slop' (and why it gives me hope) 00:03:11
• 2026-03-27 · Hank: Fruit Love Island, if not slop now, will soon be slop as such content gets easier to make (2026) — Hank · horizon: soon · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-03-27: Hank's most important case: as making things gets easier, what briefly feels novel and valuable will feel less so; if Fruit Love Island is not slop now, it will be soon. — What is 'Slop' (and why it gives me hope) 00:09:09
• 2026-03-27 · Hank: generative AI may make people care more, not less, about human effort (2026) — Hank · horizon: not stated · conditional · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-03-27: Hank says there is a chance this makes us care about human effort more: we will value weird choices and interesting leaps, since if human effort is the scarce part, he would think it would make us care about it more, not less. (hedged: "I would think") — What is 'Slop' (and why it gives me hope) 00:10:37
• 2026-03-31 · John: people will find a reason to ban Hollywood, Ending (2026) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-03-31: John is sure people will still find a reason to ban it. — I've Been Keeping a Secret… 00:02:26
• 2026-04-24 · Hank: AI might make the housing crisis worse by further concentrating wealth (2026) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-04-24: AI might even make housing worse by further concentrating wealth, since intense inequality creates incentives to serve only the wealthiest consumers. (hedged: "might") — The AI Question that No AI Person Asks 00:02:07
• 2026-04-24 · Hank: some concentration of power from AI is somewhat inevitable (2026) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-04-24: Hank sees some concentration of power from AI as somewhat inevitable, but maybe not. (hedged: "but maybe not") — The AI Question that No AI Person Asks 00:06:32
• 2026-04-24 · Hank: AI will find it easier to create a cancer drug than to get it to everyone who needs it (2026) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-04-24: It will obviously be easier for AI to create a cancer drug than to get it to everyone who needs it; both are problems, since cancer is unaffected by a drug not given. — The AI Question that No AI Person Asks 00:07:28
• 2026-05-01 · Hank: the US aid cuts will make the world get worse from one year to the next (2026) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-05-01: Hank says the aid cuts look set to produce a world that actually gets worse from one year to the next. (hedged: "it looks like") — Despair is Not Wisdom 00:01:27
• 2026-05-01 · Hank: despite the aid cuts, the world is not heading back to how it was in 1880 or even 1950 (2026) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-05-01: Hank says that despite this the world is not heading back to how it was in 1880 or even 1950. — Despair is Not Wisdom 00:01:27
• 2026-06-09 · John: South Africa will win a game at the 2026 World Cup (2026) — John · horizon: 2026 (≈ 2026-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-06-09: John doesn't expect South Africa to win the World Cup but thinks they will surprise many people by winning a game. — Your 1-Sentence Guide to EVERY TEAM in the 2026 World Cup 00:01:56
  • later on the channel 2026-06-16: The Away End, the World Cup podcast John makes with his high-school friends, was just featured on This American Life. — My First Novel in Nine Years Has a Cover 00:03:50
  • later on the channel 2026-06-23: World Cup games air at 3 a.m. in France, so John is staying up late and getting up early. — A Very French Reunion 00:00:00
• 2026-06-09 · John: Australia will win a game, possibly against the US, and make the 2026 World Cup knockout rounds (2026) — John · horizon: 2026 (≈ 2026-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-06-09: Australia aren't expected to win a game, but John thinks they will win one, possibly against the US, and make the knockout rounds. — Your 1-Sentence Guide to EVERY TEAM in the 2026 World Cup 00:02:26
  • later on the channel 2026-06-16: The Away End, the World Cup podcast John makes with his high-school friends, was just featured on This American Life. — My First Novel in Nine Years Has a Cover 00:03:50
  • later on the channel 2026-06-23: World Cup games air at 3 a.m. in France, so John is staying up late and getting up early. — A Very French Reunion 00:00:00
• 2026-06-09 · John: Mexico will make the round of 16 at the 2026 World Cup (2026) — John · horizon: 2026 (≈ 2026-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-06-09: Mexico are weaker than in years, but hard to play at home and in a weak group, so John expects them to make the round of 16. — Your 1-Sentence Guide to EVERY TEAM in the 2026 World Cup 00:04:22
  • later on the channel 2026-06-16: The Away End, the World Cup podcast John makes with his high-school friends, was just featured on This American Life. — My First Novel in Nine Years Has a Cover 00:03:50
  • later on the channel 2026-06-23: World Cup games air at 3 a.m. in France, so John is staying up late and getting up early. — A Very French Reunion 00:00:00
• 2026-06-09 · John: Norway will surprise people at the 2026 World Cup (2026) — John · horizon: 2026 (≈ 2026-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-06-09: Norway have Erling Haaland, one of the world's best strikers, and John thinks they will surprise some people at the tournament. — Your 1-Sentence Guide to EVERY TEAM in the 2026 World Cup 00:05:21
  • later on the channel 2026-06-16: The Away End, the World Cup podcast John makes with his high-school friends, was just featured on This American Life. — My First Novel in Nine Years Has a Cover 00:03:50
  • later on the channel 2026-06-23: World Cup games air at 3 a.m. in France, so John is staying up late and getting up early. — A Very French Reunion 00:00:00
• 2026-06-09 · John: Turkey will beat the US and win their 2026 World Cup group (2026) — John · horizon: 2026 (≈ 2026-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-06-09: John is convinced Turkey, who barely qualified, will beat the US and win their group before running into Brazil or France. — Your 1-Sentence Guide to EVERY TEAM in the 2026 World Cup 00:05:50
  • later on the channel 2026-06-16: The Away End, the World Cup podcast John makes with his high-school friends, was just featured on This American Life. — My First Novel in Nine Years Has a Cover 00:03:50
  • later on the channel 2026-06-23: World Cup games air at 3 a.m. in France, so John is staying up late and getting up early. — A Very French Reunion 00:00:00
• 2026-06-09 · John: the 2026 World Cup will prove Belgium wasted their golden generation (2026) — John · horizon: 2026 (≈ 2026-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-06-09: John thinks this tournament will prove Belgium have wasted their golden generation. — Your 1-Sentence Guide to EVERY TEAM in the 2026 World Cup 00:05:50
  • later on the channel 2026-06-16: The Away End, the World Cup podcast John makes with his high-school friends, was just featured on This American Life. — My First Novel in Nine Years Has a Cover 00:03:50
  • later on the channel 2026-06-23: World Cup games air at 3 a.m. in France, so John is staying up late and getting up early. — A Very French Reunion 00:00:00
• 2026-06-09 · John: Ecuador will win Germany's 2026 World Cup group and go far (2026) — John · horizon: 2026 (≈ 2026-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-06-09: Doubting Germany will even win their group, John thinks Ecuador will win it and, with a stout defense, go far before meeting France. — Your 1-Sentence Guide to EVERY TEAM in the 2026 World Cup 00:06:19
  • later on the channel 2026-06-16: The Away End, the World Cup podcast John makes with his high-school friends, was just featured on This American Life. — My First Novel in Nine Years Has a Cover 00:03:50
  • later on the channel 2026-06-23: World Cup games air at 3 a.m. in France, so John is staying up late and getting up early. — A Very French Reunion 00:00:00
• 2026-06-09 · John: Colombia could win the 2026 World Cup (dark-horse pick) (2026) — John · horizon: 2026 (≈ 2026-12-31) · horizon after 2026 · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-06-09: Colombia is John's dark-horse pick to win the World Cup, with electrifying players like Luis Díaz and a creative midfield. — Your 1-Sentence Guide to EVERY TEAM in the 2026 World Cup 00:06:49
  • later on the channel 2026-06-16: The Away End, the World Cup podcast John makes with his high-school friends, was just featured on This American Life. — My First Novel in Nine Years Has a Cover 00:03:50
  • later on the channel 2026-06-23: World Cup games air at 3 a.m. in France, so John is staying up late and getting up early. — A Very French Reunion 00:00:00
• 2026-06-13 (said on 2026-06-12, implied) · Hank: English speakers will not start calling Japan Nippon (2026) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-06-13 (said on 2026-06-12, implied): Hank does not expect English speakers to start calling Japan Nippon. — Wait...How Do You Pronounce Turkey??? 00:05:53
• 2026-06-13 (said on 2026-06-12, implied) · Hank: Czechia will eventually win out over the Czech Republic in English (2026) — Hank · horizon: eventually · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-06-13 (said on 2026-06-12, implied): Hank thinks Czechia will eventually win out over the Czech Republic. — Wait...How Do You Pronounce Turkey??? 00:05:53
• 2026-06-13 (said on 2026-06-12, implied) · Hank: English speakers will never call Germany Deutschland (2026) — Hank · horizon: never · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-06-13 (said on 2026-06-12, implied): Hank doesn't think English speakers will ever call Germany Deutschland. — Wait...How Do You Pronounce Turkey??? 00:05:53
• 2026-08-28 · Hank: humanity will eventually eliminate polio (2026) — Hank · horizon: eventually · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-08-28: Hank is fairly confident humanity will eventually eliminate polio. (hedged: "I think") — Why the Deadliest Virus Was the Easiest to Kill 00:10:20
• 2026-08-28 · Hank: influenza will not be eliminated in his lifetime (2026) — Hank · horizon: lifetime · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-08-28: Hank is confident, with some doubt, that influenza will not be eliminated: in his lifetime we will still get the flu. (hedged: "Who knows, John?") — Why the Deadliest Virus Was the Easiest to Kill 00:10:20
• 2026-09-18 · Hank: many creators will get paid more for the same number of views after YouTube's view-count change (2026) — Hank · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-09-18: Hank thinks many creators will get paid more for the same number of views, and he is kind of happy about that. (hedged: "I think") — John was Wrong about YouTube Views 00:07:46
• 2026-10-02 · John: the current capitalist system of creating and distributing art and resources will end (2026) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-10-02: John predicts the current system of creating and distributing art and other resources will end, with people together deciding when, how and what replaces it. — the most powerful attention-consuming tools in the history of the world 00:03:25
• 2026-10-20 · John: some people watching will live to see tuberculosis no longer the world's deadliest infection (2026) — John · horizon: not stated · no report on the channel
  • forecast 2026-10-20: John believes some people watching his video will live to see a world where tuberculosis is no longer the world's deadliest infection. — Correcting a Mistake in Everything Is Tuberculosis · 50 x 50 Science 00:07:47